Why is Suh third if he has the most points?

We seem to be getting deluged with comments from Cornhusker fans telling us that our projection is bunk because our math is off. After all, they say, Ndamukong Suh has the most points - how can he be in third place?!

So, rather than simply saying, "People, read the site!" we'll address it directly.

First, we see this every year. And every year, somebody cries foul. And every year, we've been right. (Last year was especially tough, since I was one of the few projecting a loss by Tim Tebow - even though he would have the most #1 votes.)

Second, if we simply counted up the number of ballots we track down - and then extrapolated a total - that would be a) too easy, and b) wrong. In fact, that's exactly what we did in our very first year. We got lucky, and correctly projected Carson Palmer as the winner, but we had Larry Johnson at #5 - not #3, as he actually ended up.

After that first year, we realized that the projection actually has to be six separate regional projections that are then added up. Why? Because you get lots and lots of public declarations from the regions that have candidates - and relatively few from the regions that don't, even though they all still vote.

This year, for example, so far we've tracked down 44 of the 145 actual ballots in the Southwest region - but only 13 of the 145 in the Northeast region. But since we know that both regions will be roughly equally represented in the final total, we have to adjust the math - so that the Southwest region doesn't appear to be three times the size of the Northeast.

A few of the other questions:

  • "Do these projections assume that the people who have not responded are going to be similar to those that have?" Yes. That's a critical assumption. And so far, it's borne out to be true. We hear from very few former winners - so I've always worried about projecting that group of voters, but they're relatively few compared to the media voters.

  • "What projection will you give voters who voted before Saturdays games?" About 10% of voters voted prior to the final Saturday games. I wish I could account for those voters, but the date of their ballot isn't something we know. Just have to assume that those votes will be equally represented in the known and unknown ballots like all the others. (Of course, if those people all voted Tebow/McCoy, and now they're too embarrassed to publicly declare, well, that could impact that critical assumption above - that known ballots accurately reflect unknown ballots.)

  • "Dude! You're WRONG! Everybody knows MY GUY is the best player in the country! Moron!" I do love those comments. This is just a little reminder that I don't award the H------ Trophy, nor do I have a vote. I'm just a math and politics nerd in Portland, Oregon that has an obsession with college football. (Pro football nerds, check this out.) Rest assured, I think your player is a great guy and deserves the Trophy. (Seriously, spending all this time on it, you can't help but gain a healthy respect for all the leading candidates.)

Kari Chisholm | December 8, 2009 | Comment on This Post (123 so far)
Permalink: Why is Suh third if he has the most points?

Comments

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Thanks. Cornhusker fans (I am one of them) are notorious for their online poll obsessions as well as giving anyone who doubts their superiority a piece of their mind. Thanks for getting ahead of this rolling boulder before your site/inbox gets caught in the avalanche.

Posted by: Patrick | Dec 8, 2009 5:05:00 PM

Have you considered direct contact with identified voters requesting their votes? Particularly former winners?

Posted by: Christopher | Dec 8, 2009 5:05:36 PM

Hey man, i'm with you 100% on what you are doing. I am hoping for a Suh win but the math doesn't lie. He isn't strong enough in the atlantic and Northeast regions in my opinion. While suh is doing pretty well out west i think he will continue to fight for votes out there with mccoy and Ingram......Gerhart will obviously win the west.

The last thing i'll say is the former heisman winners besides Woodson were all offensive players. That is a tough mountain to climb if you a defensive guy. FMR's are only about 5% of the vote, but 5% is a ton in a race this close.

Posted by: kirk Friesen | Dec 8, 2009 5:09:20 PM

Preciate what you're doing man, great stuff so far.

Posted by: Tider27 | Dec 8, 2009 5:13:11 PM

Love the beatpaths section. That is nothing short of incredible. Would love some expanded coverage of the NCAA but other than that you have an incredible tool that is great in terms of graph theory. How long did it take you to put together your beatpaths algorithm?

Posted by: Andrew | Dec 8, 2009 5:18:00 PM

If there are 145 ballots per region and there are, six regions with equal votes, there should be 870 ballots if you have 100% return. Yet there were only 680 ballots that were counted in 2008. That means you have a 78% return of all ballots. How do you know which region doesn't return their ballots? What if the Midwest returns more then the northeast and that would mean it would skew your results and your predictions. For an example to get the 78% current return votes it would mean something like this Region A votes 100%, Region B votes 50%, and Region C votes 91% it would mean Region A and C would have more influence in the outcome then Region B. Are there regions that have a history of not returning votes and have less influence?

Posted by: Keith | Dec 8, 2009 5:21:06 PM

Gerhart or Suh? Ingram has to great of a supporting cast, these two animals put there team on there backs.

Posted by: Toby | Dec 8, 2009 5:22:36 PM

If you find out that a voter has Colt McCoy number 1 on his ballot (hypothetically) but he doesn't release who he placed 2nd or 3rd, do you then slightly penalize McCoy since it would be impossible for him to gain points for either 2nd or 3rd place on that ballot?

Posted by: Matt | Dec 8, 2009 5:22:58 PM

The sad thing is Suh won't win, even tho he has done something no other Heisman candidate has ever done before. Previous to the BIG 12 Championship everyone was saying Colt McCoy was a shoe in due to what he did the previous week. No Heisman candidate has directly took a player off the Heisman podium before.

Posted by: troy (indy) | Dec 8, 2009 5:48:07 PM

Nebraska fan, Suh fan, and research methods fan. I get the logic of the projections, but have a question to ponder. In some cases, you have stated you are getting information about only the 1st place votes. I see this on your chart of voters as well. Thus Suh gets the most first place votes, but is losing some ground in terms 2nd and 3rd place votes when projected.

However, it is my understanding that a Heisman ballot is invalid unless it has a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place selection. Therefore are you counting invalid ballots or is the reporting not collecting 2nd and 3rd place votes the voter cast, which would also affect totals and projections? It seems that in a pretty tight race, that might be enough to skew the results a bit. Thoughts?

Posted by: Jason | Dec 8, 2009 5:52:53 PM

I'm just glad that Suh got the invite and at least appears to be a force in the voting results. This is the first year I've come across the site and have liked watching the numbers change. This appears to be a pretty close race and will be interesting to see how the 'real' votes go versus your projections. And as the earlier post, we Husker fans can be a little overly-fanatic. So they can and probably will cry foul/bias if you don't show Suh in the lead. But hey Husker Nation...psssst...take note...this guy is a math and politics nerd (his words) from PORTLAND, OREGON. And our very own Ndamukong Suh is from.....(look up his bio for the answer if you don't know!!!)

Posted by: Chad | Dec 8, 2009 5:59:36 PM

If Suh ends up winning the most first place votes and loses, like Tebow last year, is there any thought to changing the scoring system?

Posted by: rock | Dec 8, 2009 6:07:09 PM

I always love checking up on this website, but man... I really hope you're projections end up being wrong! :D

Posted by: Suh-nami | Dec 8, 2009 6:30:06 PM

Thanks for taking the time to explain this to all of us. I apparently wasn't the only one questioning the method to your madness. Yes, I am a HUSKER fan and a fan of SUH'S. I'm not one of those people that just jumped on the band wagon. I can only hope that we are all presently surprised Saturday night and the 2009 Heisman trophy is awarded to Ndamukong Suh. We don't want to mess up your predictions, no yes we really do want to prove you wrong!! Suh have a great time in New York and go get your trophy your the most outstanding athlete and husker nation is very proud of you!!!!!!

Posted by: Shel | Dec 8, 2009 6:30:51 PM

Hey moron that said, "Ingram has to great of a supporting cast" and "Suh and Gerhart carried their teams on their backed"...not arguing that Suh and Gerhart didn't carry their team but you obviously didn't watch Alabama games 5-10. The first year starter QB McElroy was in quite a slump only throwing 2 TDs...Ingram carried them on his back, in one game he gained every single yard of the game closing TD drive and went 276yds on the ground and over 60 in the air...PLUS When I say carried the team, Ingram carried his team to an undefeated season and conference championship in the best conference in the nation....Nebraska had a good year and plays in a good conf. but Stanford???PAC-10???Gimme a break

Posted by: PWilly | Dec 8, 2009 6:50:22 PM

Hey moron that said, "Ingram has to great of a supporting cast" and "Suh and Gerhart carried their teams on their backed"...not arguing that Suh and Gerhart didn't carry their team but you obviously didn't watch Alabama games 5-10. The first year starter QB McElroy was in quite a slump only throwing 2 TDs...Ingram carried them on his back, in one game he gained every single yard of the game closing TD drive and went 276yds on the ground and over 60 in the air...PLUS When I say carried the team, Ingram carried his team to an undefeated season and conference championship in the best conference in the nation....Nebraska had a good year and plays in a good conf. but Stanford???PAC-10???Gimme a break

Posted by: PWilly | Dec 8, 2009 6:50:22 PM

Do you idiots get it now?!?!?!

Suh isn't going to win, and it isn't becuase of this website. Changing the way he does his projections isn't going to help Suh win either. THEY ARE PROJECTIONS! Now go away, the race is between Ingram and the white boy from Stanford who wouldn't even be in the race if he wasn't white.

And yes, I am white, but nobody can argue that the national media does not rally around athletes that are white. Which is exactly what is happening now.

Does Suh deserve the award? Maybe. Will he win it? NO.

Posted by: Eddie | Dec 8, 2009 6:51:09 PM

From Toby: Gerhart or Suh? Ingram has to great of a supporting cast, these two animals put there team on there backs.

So your saying punish Ingram for making a better decision on where to go to school to play football? Gerhart and Suh had the same opportunity to choose any school in the country and now they lie in the bed they made. Ingram splits carries with a 5 star running back (hot on his trail) Trent Richardson who will probably also end up a Heisman candidate (and some argue overall more talented, Ingram isn't flashy, but that doesn't necessarily mean isn't as good...Emmit Smith wasn't flashy either). I'm sorry but your logic comes across more as rationalizing than actually stating a valid point. The truth of the matter is, Ingram substituted for Gerhart would probably give Ingram 2000 yards in a season. Better supporting cast doesn't mean better opportunity, it just means you have to work harder for what you get. Alabama probably has 3 more guys more talented than Gerhart backing Mark Ingram up.

As far as "One Game" Suh is concerned, put him at nose guard and he'll be dwarfed (like most people) by Terrance Cody. Suh isn't even the best defensive lineman in the country, forget best player. I'm sorry but one good game against Texas doesn't mean best player in the country.

Ingram had over 1000 yards against the non-arguably best (two-fold, no one is even close) conference in the nation. I want the Heisman for Mark Ingram, not for Alabama. Unlike your schools we have other things besides individual accomplishments to play for. Having said that, Mr. Ingram deserves it and I hope he wins it. Enjoy whatever bowl your in, I won't be watching but I'll see you Jan. 7th, because you'll be watching Mark Ingram this bowl season, like the rest of the nation.

Posted by: phylomatic | Dec 8, 2009 6:51:18 PM

Thanks kari for answering some questions that were posed. This really is going to be interesting to see how accurate your projection is going to be this year. I suspect many people who voted for McCoy will be too embarrassed to admit it.

Posted by: Dave | Dec 8, 2009 6:52:02 PM

Great points phylomatic!

Also, Ingram has close to if not more than 1000 yards AFTER contact. That is an amazing stat, one that not many, (if any) players ever have matched.

Posted by: Eddie | Dec 8, 2009 7:06:54 PM

"One Game" Suh??? You obviously never watch CFB. Suh was the national defensive player of the week three times this season. Any idea how he won the Bronko Nagurski Award over Terrence Cody last night? Any idea who is going to win the Lombardi and Outland Trophies? You really think all of those honors were earned based on one game?

Posted by: Brad | Dec 8, 2009 7:09:18 PM

Hey Psychomaniac. Just because you only watched SUH play in one game this year doesn't mean he didn't dominate every other game. SUH would toss this Cody guy around just like he did with the Texas OL.... No worries there. Did you even watch the game?

As for Eddie, you are a racist.

Posted by: Troy | Dec 8, 2009 7:16:13 PM

eddie. Mr. Cody had 24 tackles this year. Mr Suh had 23 tackles FOR LOSSES! Not to mention the other 55 or 60 tackles he made. The only way that calling him "one game" makes sense is if you mean that Suh had nearly as much production in one game as Cody had all year.

Posted by: phil bader | Dec 8, 2009 7:16:15 PM

How many games did Suh have this season where he didn't record ONE SINGLE SACK (the most important stat that defensive linemen are judged by)?


OK, not GTFO!

Posted by: Eddie | Dec 8, 2009 7:23:01 PM

I nominate phylomatic for least knowledgable poster on this site! Get a clue, dude. Suh was an animal all year, it just took the national media until the first week of December to quit riding Tebow and McCoy's horses and actually look around the country for the best college football players. Suh won't win, but he is the best college football player in the nation this year. The other contenders...Tebow shouldn't even be going, McCoy's stock fell greatly last Saturday, and the other 2 have had good, solid years, but nothing Heisman-worthy for an offensive player. It should go to the best defensive player in the nation this year who blew away Cody and Gerald McCoy's stats. Sadly, it won't.

Posted by: Suh All the Way | Dec 8, 2009 7:25:42 PM

This might be a difficult year for "StiffArmTrophy.com" 1st, 2nd, or 3rd place may win it. All are legitimate possibilities.

The validity of this site is on the line this year. The past 2 years I don't think much was in question.

Bottom line.

Posted by: GL | Dec 8, 2009 7:29:26 PM

"I'm sorry but one good game against Texas doesn't mean best player in the country. "

Phylomatic,
Suh had 12 straight great games....you just only saw one of them. What Suh did at the DT would be like a QB throwing for 5,000 yards and rushing for 500 or a RB rushing for 2,500 and receiving 250. College Football has never seen a DT like Suh before and it is a good bet it will be a very long time before we do again. He will walk away with 3 times the hardware (awards) that any other player in CF this year. This will be a very special week for a very special player.

Posted by: Nick | Dec 8, 2009 7:39:08 PM

Why is Cody being brought into this arguement? He has nothing to do with the award.

I never called Suh "one game", I think he deserves every vote he gets, he is a remarkable player. But, he plays in a conference where QBs throw the ball 50 times a game. He gets 15+ more opportunities to sack the QB per game then defensive players in other conferences get. I guess defensive linemen in the SEC should get consideration for the award when they ge 8 or 9 sacks a season to then?

And Troy, I am as far from racist as it gets, the national media is hyping up the white skill position player because they never get the opportunity to do so. No matter what people say, there is racial influences in the voting. Gerhart would not have near the votes he is getting if he was black.

Posted by: Eddie | Dec 8, 2009 7:44:36 PM

I nominate Suh_All_the_Way for best poster on the entire internet for his deep knowledge of Suh.

Posted by: Dotbo | Dec 8, 2009 7:45:18 PM

Five. He did however record 12 sacks in the other eight games. Cody, on the other hand, had ZERO sacks this year. Your Point?

Posted by: phil bader | Dec 8, 2009 7:46:27 PM

Phylomatic,

I know you like all of this attention but I would like to interject with one thing. Just wait until he becomes the #1 draft pick, gets traded (with large sums of money and traded draft picks) to go to your favorite NFL team... I guess I'll just assume it's the Patriots... that wouldn't surprise me. Suh deserves it, he is arguably the best athlete in college football this year, but there are valid points made. It will be a long stretch for him to win... But we can always hope.

Posted by: Suh-nami | Dec 8, 2009 7:46:32 PM

So you're from Portland? That means you love Suh! He's your hometown guy! You love Mr. Suh!!!!

:)

Posted by: Reid | Dec 8, 2009 7:49:06 PM

My apologies, eddie. I misread the name of the poster and incorrectly took a shot at you. Obviously I meant to take umbrage at the nonsense that phylomatic posted.
Sorry

Posted by: phil | Dec 8, 2009 7:51:27 PM

Suh impacted games because he had to be double or triple-teamed every play. If Ingram was double or triple-covered every play, it would be interesting to see what his stats would look like. He had five games where he had less than 100 yards rushing, so he had a hard enough time getting the stats he did under normal circumstances.

Posted by: Stallion | Dec 8, 2009 7:54:21 PM

Austin Statesman voters provided their ballots at link below. I do not believe StiffArmTrophy was showing votes from Bohls, Hallibuton, or Rosner yet. My apologies if I had overlooked them on the chart.

Kirk Bohls
1. Ndamukong Suh
2. Mark Ingram
3. Colt McCoy

Suzanne Halliburton
1. Colt McCoy
2. Toby Gerhart
3. Ndamukong Suh

Randy Riggs
1. Ndamukong Suh
2. Mark Ingram
3. Colt McCoy

Mark Rosner
1. Ndamukong Suh
2. Mark Ingram
3. Colt McCoy

http://www.statesman.com/sports/content/sports/stories/other/2009/12/09/1209states_man.html?cxtype=rss&cxsvc=7&cxcat=54

Posted by: ikey | Dec 8, 2009 7:57:01 PM

Austin Statesman votes here: http://www.statesman.com/sports/content/sports/stories/other/2009/12/09/1209states_man.html?cxtype=rss&cxsvc=7&cxcat=54 Three of those voters were not yet reflected in StiffArmTrophy chart.

Posted by: ikey | Dec 8, 2009 7:58:55 PM

not to mention SUH was either double or tripled teamed all year every game and he was still able to do everything.

Posted by: Tata | Dec 8, 2009 8:04:01 PM

Said it once ill say it again, the highest ranked team Suh played and won against was #20 Oklahoma. The only other 2 ranked teams Nebraska played were Missouri(win) and Virgina Tech(loss). That schedule is not Heisman worthy anyway you slice it. Sorry that its a Hard Knocks life but the kid picked the wrong school if he wanted to win a Heisman and truly show his skills. Not saying Nebraka is horrible, personally i dont give a crap how they do or dont do..but fact is they had a weak schedule this year. Toby Gerhart played one decent team, Oregon...he did well but there wasnt any strength in the schedule, especially to have some losses. Ingram shouldnt be the huge favorite between these 3 guys but he should be ahead of these guys, he really only had 2 bad games against Tennesee and Auburn. All in all if Suh was playing for LSU, Clemson, Alabama or for godsakes even Clemson I would hate to say it but he would deserve it over Ingram (if he had the same stats that is lol)

INGRAM FTW!!!!!!!

Posted by: TrueEyes | Dec 8, 2009 8:06:43 PM

Thank you Dotbo. I accept the award with great honor and am proud to represent my institution. I look forward to the day when everyone can argue as well as me on the Internet, or at least make logical sense. That would be nice as well.

Sincerely,

Suh All The Way.

Posted by: Suh All the Way | Dec 8, 2009 8:06:57 PM

Stallion, Ingram was pulled from the game midway through the 2 quarter in 2 of the games you mentioned, another, he played while recovering from the flu and took much fewer carries than normal. Nick Saban does not leave his starters in the game after it is in hand, thus, they have little opportunity to pad stats.

Suh was on the field for most of his teams defensive snaps, because his team is not very good and was needed to play late in many games. Again, against teams that throw the ball a lot more than most (thus inflating his sack numbers).

Ingram playing for a great team, and helping build early leads for his team thus allowing him to enjoy the game from the sidelines, should not punish him.

Posted by: Eddie | Dec 8, 2009 8:08:21 PM

Meant to say even Virginia Tech.

Posted by: TrueEyes | Dec 8, 2009 8:11:38 PM

None of this matters anyway, Suh is not going to win the award!

Posted by: Eddie | Dec 8, 2009 8:12:51 PM

Ingram is ranked #12 in rushing in the country. Yeah, he is awesome, unfortunately there are 11 who are better.

Posted by: 12th-best | Dec 8, 2009 8:13:36 PM

There are 14 players who average as many (12) or more, sacks per game than Suh. Yeah, he is awesome, unfortunately there are 14 as good or better.

Posted by: Eddie | Dec 8, 2009 8:20:13 PM

Why don't we just reserve the Heisman for the best player in the SEC every year?? Clearly they are the only conference that has any talent and tough teams. FWIW, Suh had a team-high 8 tackles in last year's bowl game against Clemson, 2 sacks for 19 yards, 4 tackles for loss for 24 yards, 1 blocked pass and 1 QB hurry. Now, I know Clemson is ACC and not that great, but they were a good team last year, started off in the preseason top 10 I believe, and they're from the southeast corner of the U.S., where 'all the talent dwells.'

Suh just dominated the offensive line of the No. 2 team in the nation, with one of the top offensive lines in the nation, including a future NFL starting center. He tossed him around, as well as the Heisman hopeful QB. Texas had given up 21 sacks all season. Suh got 4.5 in one game (NU got 9). Suh accounted for 15% of all the sacks Texas allowed this season! That's crazy. If that's not good enough for you, nothing will be. Suh can't control the schedule or the offense (which was pretty damn bad, he probably could've been more effective than our QB just taking snaps and running straight forward, but that's another story).

Eddie, you're making too many excuses for Ingram. Of Bama's 12 reg. season games, only 5 were 20+ point wins, meaning he was seeing significant time when healthy in 7 games that were reasonably close. he averaged 19 carries per game, that's enough to get Heisman stats if you're an amazing player like the Heisman winner should be. His 16-30 and 17-50 games really look bad, IMO, but hey, I don't have a vote, and as mentioned above, he plays in the SEC, where teams are apparently awesome.

Posted by: Suh All the Way | Dec 8, 2009 8:27:49 PM

True eyes,, you are borderline Moron status. You are another overly proud SEC dude I assume. Why dont you look up the winningest teams over the last 40 years, you know since there were more than 6 teams that played football,, so dont remotely put down the quality of Nebraska football to any team in the SEC or the country. Nebraska OWNED the SEC during the Osborne years beating the SEC champ as Big 8 runner up several times in the Sugar Bowl-- look it up if you doubt it. While you are at it if you look up Alabamas so called National Champonsips you will see one around 1p20 or somehting like that was against a YMCA team-- come on that kind of crap means nothing. Dont get me wrong I like Alabama but you were talking in terms of Nebraska being a 2nd tier team,, not in the post modern football era.. We still have only had 2 losing seasons since like 1960,, who else can say that!! As far as going to a school where someone could win the Heisman,, that really makes not sence knowing that Nebraska has 3 and Alabama 0, so that realy carries no weight. Fact is Suh's NFL draft position will say how good this guy is. Now for the Heisman I cant complain to much if any of the 5 invited were to get it,, they are all great players.. Bottom line is trying to decide who is the best player in all of college football really makes no sense, but hey that is what college football is all about, creating contriversy!

Posted by: yourdaddy | Dec 8, 2009 8:28:46 PM

Cody is a NOSE TACKLE. No one ran AT HIM. He single handily shut down one option, up the middle, for every team we faced. For the non-informed idiotic, I watch too much sports center and less thinking for myself mindless morons that only look at stats miss a huge part of the game which is a 3-4 defense that gets pressure with a 3 man front because the one guy in the middle, Terrance Cody requires a double/triple team for every team we play, which opens up play for the other linemen, and especially the linebackers. It's a team sport as most of you have forgotten, which means individual stats matter little. But you are right, no I haven't seen Suh play that often, and only once, because they only show relevant football where I live. To see Suh play I'd have to order it on pay-per-view. I'm sorry but your team doesn't warrant me wasting my time navigating to its site to look at its stats, so I'm definitely not going to pay for that garbage.

I admire your passion, however small my admiration may be, its there. But it doesn't warrant giving an undeserving player a trophy.

I stand by my original point which was Mark Ingram shouldn't be punished for making the right decision on what team to play for. Maybe if he only cared for himself he would have chosen a team where he would shine regardless if it meant the all important point of football, which is winning. Alabama wins. Mark Ingram is a big part of that. Sometimes they win big, Mark Ingram sits. I'm sure Stanford and Nebraska fans don't understand that, but it does happen at big time programs.

Posted by: phylomatic | Dec 8, 2009 8:29:42 PM

Cody is a NOSE TACKLE. No one ran AT HIM. He single handily shut down one option, up the middle, for every team we faced. For the non-informed idiotic, I watch too much sports center and less thinking for myself mindless morons that only look at stats miss a huge part of the game which is a 3-4 defense that gets pressure with a 3 man front because the one guy in the middle, Terrance Cody requires a double/triple team for every team we play, which opens up play for the other linemen, and especially the linebackers. It's a team sport as most of you have forgotten, which means individual stats matter little. But you are right, no I haven't seen Suh play that often, and only once, because they only show relevant football where I live. To see Suh play I'd have to order it on pay-per-view. I'm sorry but your team doesn't warrant me wasting my time navigating to its site to look at its stats, so I'm definitely not going to pay for that garbage.

I admire your passion, however small my admiration may be, its there. But it doesn't warrant giving an undeserving player a trophy.

I stand by my original point which was Mark Ingram shouldn't be punished for making the right decision on what team to play for. Maybe if he only cared for himself he would have chosen a team where he would shine regardless if it meant the all important point of football, which is winning. Alabama wins. Mark Ingram is a big part of that. Sometimes they win big, Mark Ingram sits. I'm sure Stanford and Nebraska fans don't understand that, but it does happen at big time programs.

Posted by: phylomatic | Dec 8, 2009 8:29:52 PM

hey psychoidiot! Maybe, you should watch any Nebraska game before you go trash-talk a guy you probably never even watched. He is up for every defensive award there is. Everytime, he will beat out your player that no one has ever heard of. Just because he's better doesn't mean that you can go hate on him psychoidiot!

Posted by: Rockerking9 | Dec 8, 2009 8:31:59 PM

Yeah, 95 NU destroyed every team they played, MUCH worse than this year's Bama, I'm sure NU fans don't understand how Tommie Frazier didn't win the Heisman that year even though NU rolled through an undefeated season with the best player in the land leading them. Nope, we don't understand that at all psycho.

Posted by: Suh All the Way | Dec 8, 2009 8:38:35 PM

Andrew, the Beatpaths site isn't mine. But he's a friend. I've been trying to get him to do more college football for years.

Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Dec 8, 2009 8:50:14 PM

lol Im not even gonna address any that just posted its so ridiculous. I was pretty clear in saying i dont care how Nebraska does, but if you go to google and type in Nebraska Schedule your going to find a schedule that has 3 ranked teams on it, one of which they lost to the next highest was Oklahoma at #2. I dont care what you feel for your conference, personally i dont care anything about conferences...but i do care what the BCS and AP polls say and Nebraska didnt have a Heisman worthy Schedule like Alabama's Ingram did.

Posted by: TrueEyes | Dec 8, 2009 8:50:49 PM

"But hey Husker Nation...psssst...take note...this guy is a math and politics nerd (his words) from PORTLAND, OREGON. And our very own Ndamukong Suh is from....."

Yeah, I live about two miles from his parents' house.

Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Dec 8, 2009 8:51:19 PM

#20 Okalahoma i meant.

Posted by: TrueEyes | Dec 8, 2009 8:51:39 PM

Oh and RockerKing he isnt up for the Butkus or Lambert defence awards.

Posted by: TrueEyes | Dec 8, 2009 8:54:52 PM

well, I would like to point out to Alabama fans who agree with the statement of P-willy, that a team does not consist only of a RB and a QB. There are three phases of the game of football.

Now, Mark Ingram is a good player, but he also had a great defense, lead by Terrence Cody, to go along with his running ability on offense. This combination meant that Alabama could win games during McElroy's slump. And if I had to choose which was more important to Alabama's success, I would choose their nation leading defense, and not the running back.

On the flip side, Gerhart was the backbone of the Stanford team. He WAS their offense. Yes, he was facing Pac-10 teams, but USC got their butts kicked this year in the same conference, after beatig Ohio St., the Big-10 champions.

Finally, Suh. Nebraska had almost no offense this year, starting in the games against Virginia Tech and Missouri and ending in the Big-12 championship. In those games, the primary reason Nebraska was able to win their games this year was because of their defense. The main cog in that defense this year is Suh. When Roy Helu went down, the Huskers lost one of their only sparks on offense.
Even when he came back, the only reason why they won was becuse of their defense.

So please, people, don't comment about other team's players, unless you are sure you know something about their team and conference. it makes you seem condescending and ignorant.

Posted by: d-warg | Dec 8, 2009 9:03:43 PM

Great Site. Couple of questions for you.
1 - You've gotten about 250 ballots the last couple of years and typically the top 2 or 3 vote getters are showing up on 75-80% of the ballots. This year, the top 3 vote getters are only showing up on about 60-65% of the ballots. Does this have any bearing on how the math works out for you? I'm guessing it doesn't, but I was just curious.

2 - Last year was the closest race you've worked on involving the top 3 and you missed the order on #2 & #3. Looks like you're tracking error is typically in the 2-3% range on normal. Do you do anything differnt in your formulas to account for 3 person race as opposed to a 2 person race?

Posted by: rob h | Dec 8, 2009 9:06:02 PM

Anyone have an idea of why the formers are leaning so heavy to McCoy? It's almost like they consider it a career award and not a season award. Suh, has only four votes from formers, but I wouldn't be suhprised if three of those were coming from the former husker winners.

Posted by: rob h | Dec 8, 2009 9:12:07 PM

TrueEyes,

The Big 12 has some of the more explosive offenses in the nation every year, including Tech, Texas, Missouri, Oklahoma (not so much this year). We played all of these teams and dominated all but Tech. I don't give a rat's behind about strength of schedule when it comes to the Heisman. If you're playing in a BCS Conference, that's good enough. Randy Moss at Marshall, now that I would agree on, but Suh going up against some very talented offenses and performing remarkably...well I wish he had the chance to do it against a Florida or Alabama or LSU, because he would do just what he did against Texas. But we'll never see it. If you can't fault Ingram for getting pulled in the 3rd quarter of games, you can't fault Suh for not making the schedule (which isn't as bad as you make it seem to begin with...most teams usually only play 3-4 teams that end up in the Top 25 at the end anyway).

Posted by: Suh All the Way | Dec 8, 2009 9:14:52 PM

SUUUUUUUUUUUUH!!!!!Phylomatic is an obvious JACK ASS!!!!! Who like the east coast sports writers didn't pay any attention to other players around the country until December of this season.I've watched SUUUUUUUUUUUUH 6 times on television and went to the Virginia Tech game. He is without a question the most outstanding player of the year. Consider this--These running backs and QBs need those lineman to give them a chance to pile up the stats.SUUUUUUUUUUH manhandled offensive players all year long and disrupted every offense he faced all game long all year long.His stats are College Hall of Fame for a Defensive lineman.Bank this JACK ASS phylomatic--SUUUUUUUUH will be top 3 in the NFL draft.Before Mcoy,Tebow and Gerhart.He just might go number one.

Posted by: martin | Dec 8, 2009 9:16:34 PM

82 tackles, INT, 3 blocked kicks, 10 pass breakups, 23 tackles for loss, 12 sacks, 24 QB hurries, 1 forced fumble

Enough said.

Posted by: Snark | Dec 8, 2009 9:18:02 PM

While being double and triple-teamed EVERY game.

Posted by: Suh All the Way | Dec 8, 2009 9:43:19 PM

okay eddie and phylomatic, u guys dont know a thing about Suh so stfu seriously! u only watched one game wher he slaughtered mccoy. and wow he did that in every other game he played in. he had 83 tackles and 23 for a loss. thats like a running back running for 2,500. he was double and tripled teamed all year long and he still managed to make all those plays, and nebraska would be playing for a national title right now if they had an offense that's better than a mediocre middle school

Posted by: Suh-perman | Dec 8, 2009 9:51:09 PM

okay eddie and phylomatic u guys are so stupid and dont know thing about suh so stfu! seriously all u know is that suh had one great game this year and that was against texas where he threw colt mccoy and everyone else on the OL around like a ragdoll. and for your information he did that in every other game. he had 4 times and many tackles than cody with 83! and had 23 for a loss (wow the same amount as cody about) and had 12 sacks while im not for sure but i think he had zer0. the award is supposed to go to the most outstandin player and it was definately Suh, but he wont because hes a defensive player and not a pretty boy, and because the Huskers record isnt perfect but as far as i know it's the most outstanding player and not the most outstanding player on the best team. Another fact, nebraska would be playing for a national championship rite now against alabama if the had an offense thats better than a mediocre middle school. nebraska lost 3 games by a total of 4 points and only got one touchdown in those games.

Posted by: Suh-perman | Dec 8, 2009 10:01:48 PM

I like this site so far, and you guys do a fantastic job, but even thought I know it's not over yet and it's a close race, this is the year I hope you guys are wrong... no offense to you. Go Big Suh!!

Posted by: Tim | Dec 8, 2009 10:25:23 PM

are you kiding me lets do it lke this Cody 24 takles Suh 83 takles and that one game wonder you are talking about only accounted for 12 of them 7 for a loss and 4 1/2 sacks now just because he had one game that turnd out to be hafe of all of Codys season does not make him a one game wonder it makes him a stud for a big game that everyone watched yet there was a even bigger game one earlyer that day and your boy Cody was playing in it and by your logic he just didn't show up well for give me but I just must have more respect for Cody then that he showed up he is just not even close to the same leval as Suh yet don't get me wrong he is a good player just not going to be rememberd as a all time GREAT years to come when the next GREAT D-lineman comes along. Show respect where respect is do or you will end up going through life with people shaking thier heads at every thing you say telling you to go by a ESPN or some kind of Sports book. I just hop you don't take that kind of sh*t to the sports bars you would be thrown out.

Posted by: willyboy | Dec 8, 2009 10:37:12 PM

are you kiding me lets do it lke this Cody 24 takles Suh 83 takles and that one game wonder you are talking about only accounted for 12 of them 7 for a loss and 4 1/2 sacks now just because he had one game that turnd out to be hafe of all of Codys season does not make him a one game wonder it makes him a stud for a big game that everyone watched yet there was a even bigger game one earlyer that day and your boy Cody was playing in it and by your logic he just didn't show up well for give me but I just must have more respect for Cody then that he showed up he is just not even close to the same leval as Suh yet don't get me wrong he is a good player just not going to be rememberd as a all time GREAT years to come when the next GREAT D-lineman comes along. Show respect where respect is do or you will end up going through life with people shaking thier heads at every thing you say telling you to go by a ESPN or some kind of Sports book. I just hop you don't take that kind of sh*t to the sports bars you would be thrown out.

Posted by: willyboy | Dec 8, 2009 10:39:09 PM

Suh is a good player, not Heisman worthy. I still appreciate your passion though.

Cody was brought into best DL in country, not Heisman. Neither Cody nor Suh is Heisman worthy.

I hope calling people names and acting like a child makes you feel better, unfortunately for you it still makes Suh a standout defensive lineman on a mediocre team in a over-hyped conference. Tebow deserved the Heisman last year, not Bradford. The one year Tebow fluke aside, the SEC gets screwed out of the trophy every year any way. I guess we'll just take our national championship trophies and go home. Too bad you Big 12 guys can't have everything voted on because you'd probably win much more. When things are settled on the field, like 3 of the last 4 years in the NC game, soon to be 4 out of 5, the SEC goes home with the hardware. Suh can throw around all the puny rag-doll sub 200 pound quarterbacks all he wants, but I'd put money down any day that Tebow would make him look ridiculous trying to pull that stunt with him. I'd doubt the coaches in the SEC would allow it to get to that point though, they are usually smart enough to develop a game plan around a team that only has one good player on defense.

Mark Ingram can take or leave the Heisman I'm sure. I for one don't care as far as my team goes. I like Mark and would love to see him have something to be proud of. Continue your love fest for Suh, I hope if he wins it you guys are satisfied. It will probably be the only thing Nebraska wins in a long, loooong time. I'm through with this childish argument. Roll Tide! I can't wait to cover Pasadena with Crimson.

Posted by: phylomatic | Dec 8, 2009 11:10:03 PM

You guys are seriously killing me with the "Suh is the best DL to ever play the game" junk. He's phenomenal, but gimmie a break.

Hugh Green
Dick Butkus
Bubba Smith (DL)
Lawrence Taylor (LB/DE)
Tommy Nobis
Lee Roy Jordan
Charles Woodson
Lee Roy Selmon (DT)
Mike Ditka (TE/DL)
Chuck Bednarik
Brian Bosworth
Rich Glover (DL)

......I can make this list as long as you like. Notice the number of DL who were better than Suh. I want Ingram to win, but I'm not going to be upset if he doesn't, b/c we've still got a NC to play for. However, you Husker fans act like if Suh doesn't win it's a crime. What a joke. Rolando McClain is a better defensive player than Suh........**sigh**

Posted by: roll tide | Dec 8, 2009 11:18:43 PM

I can not believe that it has led Suh this far.
The Heisman is a beauty pageant. Suh is not pretty. there are no #93 jerseys on ebay. There should be. if you really enjoy football, objectively look at this.

The heisman notoriously rewards pukes like gino torretta and andre ware.
Give the reward to best player, as defined. Nobody is scoring 50 points a game anymore. And it is a better product for that. There are 22 players on the field every snap.

break the mold. start the revolution. BCS, youre next.

If you cannot justify one rb or qb is better than the next, give it to the guy that they all fear.

Posted by: rob m | Dec 8, 2009 11:21:17 PM

I just love how these ding dongs go so regional on their "player". I've watched just about every televised sec game and big 12 game this year and there is no way that any player besides Suh should win the Heisman. There are games where he had to be triple teamed...yes triple teamed and then sometimes he still made a play. He not only played with brawn and strength but with football smarts. Alot of his plays came from reading his keys. I'm 46 and he is the best damn football player I have ever saw.

Posted by: Johndar | Dec 9, 2009 12:21:16 AM

Suh was keyed against all season but still managed to put up his stats. It is incredible how he has made plays when he was double and triple teamed, blatantly held in a conference that doesnt call holding, and often chop blocked. Too many of you are too caught up in stats that only offensive players can provide (thousands of yards) and don't appreciate or wouldn't know what spectacular defense numbers are.

Just to refute some ridiculous things posted earlier
First, for the guy with SEC superiority complex, Nebraska had 4 guys make First Team All Big 12 Defense, Suh is not the only player that plays for Nebraska and he would be just as dominant in the SEC with the coaching he has gotten.
Also, to the same guy I think, I'm guessing you are either too young or too biased to realize that Nebraska has similar tradition to Alabama especially in the past 20 years.
Finally, the notion that Suh is not better than McClain is a total homer statement that no one outside of Alabama would agree with. Has or will McClain be projected to be the top pick in the draft by Kiper and held the spot since 4 weeks into the season? No. Will he win the Nagurski? Probably not

Posted by: keane | Dec 9, 2009 12:22:03 AM

Suh dominated all year... the only game here he wasn't quite as dominant as we are used to is against kansas where they used constant roll outs doubling or tripling up on suh and leaving the backside d-end unblocked. o and let's not forget that Hall for texas was a first team all american center and look what suh did against him

Posted by: Chuck | Dec 9, 2009 2:14:36 AM

Ingram: Bama puts in Trent Richardson & doesn't miss a beat.
Gerhart: 101 mopre carries this season than last = 600 more yards = he maintained his over all average = Harbaugh made more of a commitment to run the ball this year; can't ignore 26 touchdowns though.
McCoy: doesn't have the stats nor the quality win
Tebow: one of his worst stats years because of the players around him, team lost the SEC title b /c they c/n block Bama upfront
Suh: 82 tackles by a defensive tackle? Sorry, but that is an amazing number by a DT

we need a new award because the Heisman has become the 'pretty media award for one to three year achievement'

Posted by: Darrell | Dec 9, 2009 7:25:44 AM

The TSIPS were supposed to win by 2 TDS and they had to BEG the refs for that one second which would have rolled off had the roles been reversed and would NOT have been reviewed. Husker fans everywhere know time and time again they get the short end of the stick. I think this is due to jealousy of a program that has class and the the best fans you can find anywhere (just ask every team who comes to memorial stadium in Lincoln, NE) I don't know if you saw this fixed game or not but NDAMUKONG SUH threw Colt McCoy around like he was a ragdoll as he has done all year with double and triple teams ALL YEAR LONG!!! If the Huskers played Alambummer or Floor i duh sure they would lose but not by much and your Ingram or Teebow would both be thrown around just like McCoy was. Suh should win this trophy because he is the BEST PLAYER IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL. It is about time someone other than a QB or RB got this award. Suh IS that someone because he is THE BEST OF THE BEST!

Posted by: AZHUSKERFAN | Dec 9, 2009 8:10:18 AM

Thanks for all the work on this. Your methods and information really make a complete joke of the other prediction sites. The trouble with us Cornhusker fans is that we are pretty knowledgeable about college football, particularly defense. The accomplishments of Suh as a defensive tackle are so incredible it is hard to even think of another DT that has had a year like his, ever.

Ordinary football fans wouldn't understand that because they will be comparing Suh's numbers to linebackers, ends and defensive backs. Bob Lutz a voter in Wichita did just that while justifying his vote for McCoy.

But, it's too late now, so Suh's chances are slim. Nice to be recognized though.

Posted by: George Graham | Dec 9, 2009 8:18:30 AM

You Cornhuskers are an unbelievable lot - truly. Suh would toss Cody around? Good thing for Suh and your egos that there is no way to see that match-up ever happen. No one can toss Cody around by themselves, not even Nebraska's wonderkid Suh! Cody doesn't play 3rd down, so I am not surprised that the Nagursky award went to Suh. That said, you are dreaming to think that Cody isn't worthy and you also never had to play him. Makes your point much easier to argue, doesn't it? Why don't you ask Virginia Tech, Tennessee, Auburn, Florida, LSU how easy Cody is to defend? Terrence may not win the Lombardy, either, but you are doing all a disservice to not acknowledge the challenges he brings to offensive lines. You think Texas has a real answer for him?

And furthermore, I am just ready to puke from all of these people saying to punish Mark Ingram because he plays on a team with more than one talented player!! You think Tebow was the only talented guy on Florida's team? For that matter, do you think a QB could EVER be vaunted up to vie for the Heisman if he didn't have talent on his team? You are just trying to rationalize for your guy be it Suh or Gerhardt. You feed Ingram like Stanford feeds Gerhardt and Ingram has double the yards and completely exhausted legs. Stanford lost those big games with him, too, didn't they? Where was Stanford's workhorse in the 4th quarter of the Cal game? On the sidelines watching the back up because their system had him totally gassed! Can't say that about Ingram. We don't strictly play for individual awards at Alabama and we have been jobbed by voters before. In the end, I believe that while Ingram would be humbled to receive the trophy and very pleased, he would much rather be playing ball for a national championship in Pasadena on Jan. 7 than in the Holiday Bowl. Roll Tide Roll!!!!

Posted by: bamagrad1998 | Dec 9, 2009 8:21:06 AM

eddie... have YOU ever watched a game or read a stat line before in your life? remember... at least look up information before you comment like an idiot. Suh had 8 games w/ at least 1 sack in the game... giving him only 4 games w/o one... pretty tough to do when every single game you are double and triple teamed. I think Ingram will win this award.. should he? Probably... b/c its an award given to the best offensive player in the game.. dont kid yourselves Woodson played on offense and special teams. Suh will be the #1 pick in the NFL draft and will clean house with every trophy he is up for.. so us husker fans should just be ecstatic with that. Having a defensive player going to New York is an extremely huge honor.. and congratulations Suh.. You earned it.

Posted by: cmac | Dec 9, 2009 8:31:25 AM

I'm a former journalist who covered public affairs, so I'm familiar with the projection techniques you're using. The wild card will be how many voters nationally saw NU-Texas and what Suh did to McCoy in particular -- and how many are swayed. Suh's from your town (Portland OR), so might NU-Texas have been watched more on the West Coast than normal? Hard to say. I'll guess that you're probably right in your projection, but "Dewey Defeats Truman" is always worth remembering ...

Seriously, we Husker fans are probably more hyped up on this matter than ever because of the lean decade we've been through. There's a strong chance that if Suh actually wins this thing, it'll be celebrated by Husker Nation more than any of the other three. Besides ... the stiffarm trophy is supposed to be open to any player. Why not make this the year it's proven or disproven for good?

Posted by: Todd | Dec 9, 2009 8:33:42 AM

I am a OU fan and got the pleasure of watching them play a Nebraska. Which is an great stadium and the fans for Nebraska where really good sportmen. Suh should get it, that man is beast. Its time another defensive player got this award. besides Defense is what wins the game. Its just to bad Nebraska fell just short of a HUGE upset. GO SUH! And on that note Bama is going to crush Texas!

Posted by: Cliff | Dec 9, 2009 8:36:58 AM

Haha, I really like how these comments are completely unrelated to the task at hand. This website is here to predict a Heisman winner through estimates and mathematical calculations. It's all fun and games. If Suh wins, that's great. If he loses? He has already won the Nagurski award for being the best defensive player in the nation along with many finalist (potentially winning) awards. I do feel the Heisman voting system is flawed a bit as you notice many candidates that have undefeated/flawless seasons whom aren't in the chase, or others whom are remarkable athletes (i.e. Spiller), but so is every other college system. Can we say, BCS? With that, I say: Suh for Heisman... but I'm not going to cry over spilt milk.

Posted by: Suh-nami | Dec 9, 2009 8:44:39 AM

"It's a team sport as most of you have forgotten, which means individual stats matter little"

You can't give out an individual award based on team success, or based on university selection. If you believe so... I really don't know what to say. The Heisman is not for the best player on the best team (by that reasoning I would probably vote for Rolando anyway), but for the most outstanding player - at least in theory. We all know what happens in practice.

BTW, I don't think a single person has mentioned how great Alabama's OL has been in the SEC final, and this whole season too (particularly the three middle guys) - it's one thing to run against supposedly tougher defenses.. but at the same time, if you're on Bama, you also got a better OL, than Stanford, Fresno State or let's say Temple.

Also, no need for ignorant half-statements.. how did Bama fare against Utah last year? Try watching more than 1 conference, you might actually enjoy it. And then you won't fall into same trap either as some of the "allknowing" Heisman-voters.

Posted by: IgorRuzkin | Dec 9, 2009 9:25:10 AM

What are your thoughts about having the Heisman trophy awarded after the bowl games? There have been many cases where the athlete will win the award and end up losing in their bowl game? Do you see this changing? I feel that the awards should be handed out afterwards, because this is where competition is (usually) greatest. You end up playing a team who has had success in a different conference.

Posted by: Suh-nami | Dec 9, 2009 9:29:49 AM

IMO Suh is the most outstanding player. I think Ingram is a great player that plays on the most outstanding team, but if the trophy is for the most outstanding player I think that either Suh or Gerhart should win it

Posted by: Scott | Dec 9, 2009 9:30:31 AM

Eddie

I don't know where you get your stats, but your claim that Suh's numbers were inflated because he faced more passing teams is false.

Here are the stats: Nebraska faced 904 total plays on defense. 388 were passing plays. That's 42.9%. Seems pretty average.

As a comparison: Alabama faced 772 total plays on defense. 407 were passing plays. That's 52.7%.

So which conference throws the ball more.

By the way, your arguement that Suh is on the field for the entire game, and gets inflated stats because he has more opportunities is like saying that Ingram had more opportunities because Alabama tends to run the ball more than 50% of the time...or Tebow because Florida passes 60% of the time. (I'm not claiming those two stats are real...just using them as an example)

Posted by: Mark | Dec 9, 2009 10:07:55 AM

Roll Tide,

This just in: Suh isn't competing against players from the past for this year's Heisman. He's competing against four other players, and he is a better football player than all of them. Ingram and Gerhart are good running backs, but they aren't special players that only come once a decade. Suh is that man. when you find me a highlight of a DT THROWING a Heisman-candidate QB to the ground, not tackling, but THROWING him 5 yards across the ground, then I'll shut up. Until then, Suh should win the Heisman, not just for that play (I can already see your next rebuttle) but for his body of work this season, which is astounding.

Posted by: Suh All the Way | Dec 9, 2009 10:38:58 AM

While I would like to see Ingram win, I am hoping that the Nebrasca linema Suh does. Heisman trophy winners don't play well in the BCS games, if my memory is correct

Posted by: MarcD | Dec 9, 2009 11:16:00 AM

TG had a GREAT season. BUT, he did not face the defensive talent that the SEC puts on the field. Yeah, Bama played a couple of wek teams...but ALL teams do including Stanford.

Ingram should win this and will

Roll Tide

#22

Posted by: Former 'Bama Playa | Dec 9, 2009 12:26:47 PM

On another note....votes should be cast AFTER the bowl games.

those who voted BEFORE the end of the seaon are idiots and or lazy!

Posted by: Former 'Bama Playa | Dec 9, 2009 12:32:25 PM

Seriously... nobody could throw Cody around. That statement was laughable at best. The Suh fans have certainly made a case for him winning the trophy- at EVERY site I've been on. Do you people have jobs? Just saying. Anyway, I'm sure Suh is a great player, I haven't watched him as I am POSITIVE you have not watch Ingram play. So why don't you just admit that you want him to win because you are a fan? That's why I want Ingram to win...

Posted by: kateofspades | Dec 9, 2009 1:04:12 PM

Suh deserves this trophy. That bastard made me work hard and I got lucky to win that game, plus I'm still sore from it too. Colt

Posted by: Colt McCoy | Dec 9, 2009 1:15:29 PM

It's interesting that they say defense wins champainships and yet no purely defensive player has won the Hiesman (Woodson won it for the returns as much as the D). In other words, no purely defensive player has ever been the best player in the country. In the history of College football I doubt that's the case. The H trophey is overrated.

Posted by: Tim | Dec 9, 2009 1:37:34 PM

The SEC defenses are overrated. Yes, they are solid...but they aren't the end-all be-all of defenses.

Here's some stats for you:

Last year (when EVERY SEC defense was supposedly so great), Florida's lowest point total of the season, came against a Big 12 defense...24 against Oklahoma.

While everyone was bagging on the Big 12 defenses for being bad (and inflating the offensive stats of the Big 12)....Florida averaged 43.64 points per game for the season, which would have ranked them #2 in the Big 12.

Florida also averaged 43.33 points per game against those "great" SEC defenses....which would have been #3 in the Big 12.

There were 3 SEC teams who finished in the bottom 10 for offensive points per game (Auburn / Tennessee tied at 111 and Miss. State finished 116)

Last year....Florida basically put up Big 12-like numbers against all of those "great" SEC defenses...so were those defenses just bad whenever they faced Florida, or was the real culprit that the SEC offenses stunk?

Yes...these stats were from last year, but my point is: if you're going to tell me how great the Defenses were that Ingram put his numbers up against....then can I tell you how great the Offenses were that Suh put up his numbers against? I'm guessing you won't accept that arguement.

Posted by: Mark | Dec 9, 2009 2:26:20 PM

I think the main thing Ingram has going for him, which the media hardly mentions, is the fact that he has the yardage he has against the best defenses in the nation( SEC). The difference in SEC defenses and the rest of the nation's defenses is like night and day. Just wait until the BCS Championshio game.
Also, Saban didnt run up the scores (and offensive stats) against defeated teams, as most coaches do.
Trav

Posted by: Trav | Dec 9, 2009 2:45:58 PM

Look guys, no offense but the teams playing in the SEC conference are in a whole other league than the other conferences. If Nebraska or Stanford had played teams like Florida, Alabama, or even LSU they would have been demolished. They are not the same caliber of teams as are the ones in the SEC. Good luck to all nominees, but the H---- trophy should go to Ingram.

Posted by: professor | Dec 9, 2009 2:55:11 PM

Nobody did what C. J. Spiller did this year--he passed, he ran back kick-offs and punts, he received, he blocked, etc. and he did it all while having a
very sore toe. He is the best all-round player in the country, but his team lost
its last two games though he performed in spectacular fashion.

Posted by: don wood | Dec 9, 2009 3:11:03 PM

Agreed.

Posted by: Suh-nami | Dec 9, 2009 3:26:18 PM

Ingram will win it because people don't have a way to compare SUH to any of the other H---- canidates. They can compare QB to QB, and RB to RB...but nobody to SUH. I'm a Huskers fan and that game was a heartbreaker, but I loved seeing him just throw Colt McCoy like a ragdoll. SUH is a beast and at least he is getting the attention he deserves. GO BIG RED!!

Posted by: BBJ | Dec 9, 2009 3:30:28 PM

Hey true eyes! Suh is DT, so he is not up for any linebacker awards. So, you're comment is totally boogus, and maybe, you should be more informed about awrads other than the ones that you bandwagon on the player who everybody thinks is going to win. Also, if Ingram could actually play Nebraska he would get the floor splattered with him on the ground.

Posted by: Rockerking9 | Dec 9, 2009 4:54:47 PM

I am tired of hearing people say or insinuate that Ndamukong Suh is a one game wonder.

He is the single greatest defensive player I have ever seen. He has dominated games for two years, and if you do not know who he was prior to the BIG 12 Championship, then you are a moron.

Ok, that was a little harsh. How about you don't pay enough attention to college football. Suh will prove he is better than Cody and G. McCoy - generally considered the other great d-linemen in the country.

Suh singlehandedly dominates on a regular basis. How about Ingram's 30 freaking yards in Alabama's biggest game of the season? Don't even try to tell me Florida was bigger...not to Alabama it wasn't. The Iron Bowl is all that matters...and Ingram disappeared.


He has 1500 yards. That is NOT a Heisman season. It is nowhere in the vincinity of great. He is a very good back on a team in the National Title game. The only reason he is in New York is because Alabama's QB has not had a great year. By default, it seems someone from the National Title game must be in New York...and they normally win.

That is why the Heisman is losing its luster. Toby or Ndamukong....that is ok. But not the guy with 1500 yards in 13 GAMES and 30 yards in the biggest game of the season.

Posted by: Tad | Dec 9, 2009 5:06:40 PM


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