Our final projection: Mark Ingram, in a close one.

It's such a close race, that we'd like to hang on for a few more days and convince another hundred voters to share their picks -- but alas, time has run out.

There's also something tempting about just declaring it "too close to call", but that just won't do.

We're now up to 313 ballots, 33.8% of all the ballots. And on those 313 ballots, we project that Mark Ingram will earn 1336 points - or 48.1% of the maximum 2778 possible.

We're now projecting that Toby Gerhart will earn 1241 points - or 44.7% of the max possible. Ndamukong Suh will earn 1188 points - or 42.8% of the max possible.

Colt McCoy comes in at 939 points, or 33.8%; and Tim Tebow comes in at 295 points, or 10.6%.

We are reasonably confident that Mark Ingram will win the Trophy. With only a 3.4% advantage over Gerhart, it's far from a sure thing - as our past projections have overestimated the top-two gap by 2.6 to 4.2%. That said, it would take a fairly dramatic difference between the known and unknown ballots for Ingram to lose.

We are not, however, confident that Gerhart will defeat Suh for second place. With less than a 2% gap, it's too close to call. Even late Friday, as batches of ballots were coming in, Suh and Gerhart traded places several times.

We're very confident that McCoy will place fourth - and that Tebow will place fifth.

In addition, we're projecting with confidence that Ndamukong Suh will earn the most first place votes. We also project that Toby Gerhart will earn the second-most first place votes (even though we've tracked more #1s for Ingram.)

Here's the final regional breakdown of the ballots we've tracked down:

name	Fan	Formers	West	SW	MidW	South	Mid-Atl	NE	Unknown
M Ingram	1	16	24	85	71	110	56	41	34
T Gerhart	0	9	67	70	69	80	44	30	18
N Suh	3	11	32	127	74	64	37	30	23
C McCoy	0	26	26	79	40	50	38	26	12
T Tebow	0	5	8	7	7	38	20	8	2

Kari Chisholm | December 12, 2009 | Comment on This Post (339 so far)
Permalink: Our final projection: Mark Ingram, in a close one.

Comments

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Finally good to see a projection! Its been an absolute joy to watch the progress of the projection and to be a part of the discussion in such a close race. After seeing your methodology and reading the numbers, I feel like you have a pretty good chance at being right. I feel Suh is the most impactful player in FBS schools but its hard to argue with Alabama's and Ingram's success.

I look forward to seeing how your projections pan out tonight! Good luck and thanks for your work! see you next year.

Posted by: phlevel | Dec 12, 2009 2:04:06 AM

Once again its typical of this award trying to give it to a offensive player. The best player in the land has to be SUUUUHHHHHH!!! Not mention head to head with another hopful of this award SUH MAN HANDLE McCoy!!! Don't vote because poor bama fan's have never had an Trophy. Then again the award winner aways is a bust in the NFL!!!

Posted by: Kevin | Dec 12, 2009 2:05:17 AM

Well, it will be very impressive if you project the winner correctly this year, in such a tight race. Since your formula seems to be based on conventional voting patterns, I'm very curious to see if it works in such an unconventional year. After all, if a defensive tackle ever wins the H-man trophy, it's probably not going to match voting patterns of previous years...

Posted by: Paul | Dec 12, 2009 2:24:44 AM

I too wonder what an unconventional year will do to undermine a conventional polling assumption. My suspicion is that many early voters, and many of the quieter voters, leaned McCoy, so his numbers should shoot up relative to the top three. I still don't think he will take down the Heisman, but I suspect he might show better than 4th.

Posted by: Nsight7 | Dec 12, 2009 2:35:21 AM

Its a shame that Suh looks like he won't win, especially since it seems like he is widely recognized as the player as the most number votes seems to indicate. He really suffered from massive underexposure this season until the texas game. But I am glad that he is still getting this much recognition because two weeks ago he was still a beast, but wasn't in the conversation.

Posted by: scott | Dec 12, 2009 2:38:07 AM

The fact that Suh and Gerhart are even invited to New York and so many people consider them to be in the top three is a joke. Way too many have been influenced by Fowler and Herbstreit and really fail to see the bigger picture when it comes to these two players.

Let me start with Suh. Yes he had a great game against Texas, but to say that every game he played all year was like that is false. He had 1/3 of his total amount of sacks in the last game, which means that he averaged less than 3/4 of a sack per game the rest of the year. This is not Heisman worthy at all when you consider that Derrick Thomas had 27 Sacks in one season and finished 10th in the Heisman voting. Suh is a great DT and should be one of the top picks in the draft next year, but he did not dominate like he did against Texas all year, if he did, Nebraska would not have lost 4 games. In fact the Nebraska D gave up 31 points to pass happy Texas Tech. The numbers show that Suh didn't play like he did against Texas all year. Suh had 5 games without a sack. He had 2 games without a Tackle for Loss and another 2 games with only .5 of a tackle for loss. He had 50 solo tackles and 32 assisted tackles, which is the most for a DT, but this doesn't make him the best player in college football. The fact is that he wasn't able to lead his team to a better record against a conference that was down this year and a pretty weak schedule says quite a bit. Suh wasn't even in the conversation before the last game and then because of one game all these voters think he should win, you've got to be kidding me??? This is nothing more than lazy voters being influenced by Herbstreit, Mussberger, and Fowler who were trying to make the ABC game seem more interesting than CBS's SEC championship game. The voters are supposed to look at the entire body of work, not just one game. I don't care what Herbstreit says, Suh didn't play like he did against Texas all year long, both the stats and the game film back this up. He should be watching the Heisman award on TV just like the rest of us. All of those that voted for him should be stripped of their vote.

Now let's talk about Gerhart. So everyone is making a big deal that he rushed for 1736 and Ingram rushed for 1542. That's 194 yards difference but Gerhart did this on 62 more carries which is more than 3 games worth for Ingram who only averages 19 carries per game. In fact there were 3 games against North Texas, Florida International, and UT-Chat where Ingram only played about a quarter in each carrying the ball 8, 10, and 11 times. There was no stat padding by Ingram this year. I would say the most telling stat is Total Yards. Gerhart only had 20 more total yards than Ingram on over 40 more touches. Let's face it the SEC defenses are much tougher than Pac 10 D's and Ingram had one of his biggest games against the #1 defense in the country. What Gerhart did against Notre Dame wasn't in the least bit impressive when you consider how bad that defense was. The fact is that Ingram was much more impressive all year, PERIOD.

I hope that the voters got it right, because in a year that all the so called "experts" say there is no clear choice, they couldn't be more wrong. There is only one clear choice and that's Ingram. He was the best player all year long. He was the most consistent player all year long. McCoy, Tebow, Suh and Gerhart all had a few disappointing games, and Ingram had 1. He was great in 12 other games in the best conference in football.

The way voters should have voted:
1 Ingram
2 McCoy
3. Tebow
4. Gerhart
5. Spiller

Again anyone with Suh on their ballot should be stripped of their vote. Rolondo McClain had more of an impact in every game than Suh did and McClain had much better numbers. Suh shouldn't even be in New York!!! COME ON MAN!!!

Posted by: lyons | Dec 12, 2009 3:22:30 AM

"Suh is a great DT and should be one of the top picks in the draft next year, but he did not dominate like he did against Texas all year, if he did, Nebraska would not have lost 4 games"

Um Suh played awesome all year - they lost 4 games becuase NU's offensive this year was terrible for those games. Lee is one of the QB's I have seen playing for NU in a long time. So many turnovers... the NU defensse and special teams are the primary reason that NU won the games they did.

If BU would have had a better offense this year, they would have had more attention and in turn more would have seen how great of a player Suh is and he would win the trophy for sure. I cant even count how many block passes Suh had this year - amazing player!!

Posted by: John | Dec 12, 2009 3:41:15 AM

Scott,

With reference to your post above against Suh -- you seem to be arguing that we should throw out a player's best game (Texas) and count everything else. And if a team loses 4 games (3 of those by total of 4 points!) with essentially no offense, the guy should be disqualified. He led the team in tackles for two straight years from a position that has no business doing so. He has 4 career interceptions, two returned for TDs. He is #76 in the country in passes defended -- he is ahead of the vast majority of DBs in this statistic, nationwide. To say he wasn't in the conversation all year is false. Yes, he helped himself tremendously against Texas, but so what? Ingram was "great" with 119 yards per game? That's "great!" He's #12 in the country at his position.

Posted by: Doug | Dec 12, 2009 3:41:33 AM

Sorry - fixing some of my typos -

"Suh is a great DT and should be one of the top picks in the draft next year, but he did not dominate like he did against Texas all year, if he did, Nebraska would not have lost 4 games"

Um Suh played awesome all year - they lost 4 games becuase NU's offensive this year was terrible for those games. Lee is one of the worst QB's I have seen playing for NU in a long time. So many turnovers... the NU defensse and special teams are the primary reason that NU won the games they did.

If NU would have had a better offense this year, they would have had more attention and in turn more would have seen how great of a player Suh is and he would win the trophy for sure. I cant even count how many block passes / blocked FG's Suh had this year - amazing player!!

Posted by: John | Dec 12, 2009 3:44:41 AM

lyons,

Suh's job = absorb blockers so linebackers have open lanes to amass great numbers. Terrence Cody did this really well which is why McClain had such great numbers. He's a great linebacker with great help, but he's supposed to get numbers like that. Suh's a tackle and is not supposed to get sick numbers like that which is what made this such a special season for him. Have you watched game film of him all season long? If you have, you watched film of a beast. Anytime he played a primetime game, you'd hear some H....... hype the next week, and yeah this talk continued throughout the year. This last game just happened to be his most dominant performance, on a bigger stage, against the leading candidate.

Gerhart had more carries than Ingram, this much is true. This is true because his team asked him for more carries, and it shows his durability. And I'm not buying this SEC defense is vastly superior to the PAC 10 defense argument.

http://espn.go.com/blog/pac10/post/_/id/6119/myth-vs-reality-defense-in-the-pac-10

Do you really want to say that Ingram only had one less than average game? Really? He's had 5 games without getting 100 yards. 2.9 YPC against Arkansas for 50 yards. Look, Ingram has had a great season and he's a worthy candidate. But so are Gerhart and Suh. Ingram will probably win, and he's deserving. But to honestly say that it's a joke that Suh's in NY?

C'mon Man

Posted by: ksuh | Dec 12, 2009 3:54:44 AM

Lyons take off those crimson colored glasses. Suh is a dominant DL.He has been consistent throughout the season and crushed McCoy and Texas in the championship game. In fact, he's single handedly outperformed a lot of teams' whole defensive lines. You can't compare him to a Linebacker that can line up anywhere on the field. He goes one on one or faces double teams every play. Defenses know where he is coming from, but he's still hard to stop. Suh has been talked about all season. If you paid attention, you would know.

Gerhart has been much more consistent than Ingram has this season. The stats bear that out. He had two games under 100 yards, 82 and 96. He scored more Touchdowns than Ingram. He had more carries because he's a workhorse, and Stanford doesn't have a Trent Richardson on the sideline. If you look the rankings up, Gerhart played against tougher rush defenses than Ingram did as well. It's true. Gerhart also played in one less game than did Ingram. Ingram had at least 3 bad performances. He was completely shut down by the worst Auburn defense in a long time just 2 weeks ago. He had 17 carries for 50 yards against Arkansas, though he did have 2 TDs. Against Tennessee, he had 99 yards with no TDs and a costly fumble near the end of the game which almost caused Bama's demise. Ingram is ranked 12th in yards per game among running backs. So, Let's not pretend that Mark Ingram is a clearcut favorite. He's a fine player, but Suh and Gerhart are just as good if not better.

Posted by: TL | Dec 12, 2009 3:56:24 AM

It appears this website and the Heisman Voters got it right. Ingram isn't a manufactured candidate such as Gerhart and overrated like Suh.

We don't pad stats at UA like Harbaugh & Brown. Nor should the award go to someone who has had 1 dominant game. For the record, Derrick Thomas had 27 sacks his senior season @ UA which makes Suh's sack totals seem elementary.

Mark has been consistent all year long and easily left 400 yards & 8 td's on the table due to Saban pulling him in the second halves of games that were already over. We now know a certain segment of America would rather someone stay in the game to pad stats a la Gerhart & McCoy. Roll Tide and Go Mark!

Posted by: Will | Dec 12, 2009 4:32:53 AM

I hope Suh wins the Heisman. He has 4 major trophies. Other people should
be cheering for him as well because a primarily defensive player winning the
Heisman would make people get a little more open minded about what a defensive
player does for the game. This isn't just about Suh. It is about overcoming biases. I can think of no better person to win it than someone who has already
won the Nagurski, Lombardi, Bednarik and Outland trophies already. People that think he just played one good game need to realize that teams did what they could to stop him. We had VT game won, but gave up a long pass at the end and
then a 4th down play. Against IA St we had 8 turnovers and only lost by 2 points. Against Texas it came down to final play and the only way they got in field goal range is 2 penalties and a 19 yard pass play. I don't know how to explain Texas Tech game. Other than that one, we could have been 12-1. Having
a bad offense kept the defense on field way too long, so stats were hurt because
of a lack of offense. Bowl game will be fun to watch.

Posted by: Randy | Dec 12, 2009 4:34:19 AM

John,
Simply put Interceptions in a previous year do not count for the Heisman this year, I agree he is an incredible talent, but you cant count the 4 year totals. Its an award for this year and this year alone, otherwise hand the trophy to Tebow or Mccoy for their career work.

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 4:40:35 AM

John,
Forgot one more thing, he was limited in carries not due to his inability to finish games, but due to the fact that Alabama did not pad stats for their best players period. 6.2 ypc for the year v 5.6 ypc.... end of story on the Ingram v. Gerhart.

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 4:42:41 AM

Congratulations Mark ... well deserved .

Posted by: Rolling Rolling Rolling | Dec 12, 2009 4:49:49 AM

I suspect your methodology slightly overstates Ingram and slightly understates Suh. Gerhart is probably fairly flat. I base this on an assumption (right or wrong) that a high percentage of the initial ballots you identified were cast prior to Saturday. (Possibly excepting the two regions in which Suh got a huge and vocal boost from the Nebraska v. Texas game.) By comparing your initial percentages against the subsequent percentages, Suh gets a substantial boost in originally low reporting areas in which he was weak. Ingram picked it up in Suh's original strong areas, but there are substantially fewer votes to predict in those areas. If I'm right (and I'll admit I'm probably not) Suh and Ingram will be closer and Gerhart will end up third.

Posted by: Jim | Dec 12, 2009 4:57:09 AM

Lyons, you are a tool! This trophy is supposed to go to the BEST college football player in the country! Your boy Ingram is not even the best football player on his team. You Ingram fans are crazy, what did this sophomore dominate this year? What games did he change the outcome of? NONE! I cant remember the last time a H----- winning running back had 5 or more games with less than 100 yards rushing. He needed the help of an above average offensive line and a quarterback that struggled in mid season, but not in the conference championship. You do have a point, besides the top of your head, Suh didnt have the same game he had against Texas in every game this season. He did what his coaches trained him to do, he occupied 2-3 blockers on every play so his fellow players could dominate. Who cares who wins this thing, it will most likely not go to THE BEST COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYER IN THE COUNTRY! I was going to cheer for Bama in the NC, but idiots like you, have made me a Longhorn fan.

Posted by: KM | Dec 12, 2009 4:59:24 AM

Beau you have a buncha Xbox and Fantasy football junkies who could care less about actually winning , depth , playing time , player development or anything else .

Put a player on a one dimensional team , flog him like a worn out race horse because his team has no depth and if he piles up even fractionally better stats in any isolated category while his team goes down in flames for loss after loss ... He is the GREATEST EVER in their mind.( or greatest till next week ... whichever comes first in their attention deficit driven world ).

Choose a player who helps lead his entire team to an undefeated season ? Why do that ?

In their minds , if he can't help boost your standing as a Fantasy Football manager over Skippy the Ruthless from Hoboken ... he must not be that good of a player LOL

Posted by: Still Laughing | Dec 12, 2009 5:03:32 AM

Lyons, Do you watch any college football or just listen to the ESPN hype all year. Suh is a game changer. Enough said. Who else can you watch in amazement as they change the course of games. The other candidates are good choices, but no one had an outstanding year. All had below average games that would disqualify them from other Heisman races. The Texas game was a good one for Suh, but he didn't have any bad games either.

Maybe you're biased because of years of supporting a lifeless program or personal inadequacies. I don't know. Your comments are ridiculous to say the least. Try watching a variety of college football games next season so your observations can hold some weight, and lay off the Sportscenter buddy.

YOU are the joke!

Posted by: Tom | Dec 12, 2009 5:04:05 AM

I'm a weather forecaster by trade, and appreciate how difficult it can be at times to project a future outcome. Sometimes, there's just simply not enough information to confidently forecast possible outcome "A" over possible outcome "B". Unfortunately, people still want to know whether or not to bring an umbrella. So sometimes, you just have to walk out on that limb. If you're right, you get enormous accolades, and if you're wrong, people tell you that you're horrible at what you do. But sometimes, it really does come down to a coin-flip.

Posted by: JTate | Dec 12, 2009 5:06:30 AM

Ingram raked in 29 plays 15 yards or longer this year . How about you stat junkies letting us know which other running backs in the nation did that and still had time to drink some KoolAid and cheer their teammates on in the second half ? ;-)

Posted by: Still Laughing | Dec 12, 2009 5:13:39 AM

KM Ingram had an outstanding year. Considering he was pulled from many games early he doesn't have as many carries as others, Saban doesn't pad stats. To belittle him and say he isn't deserving is just ignorant. They are all deserving or they wouldn't be there. If you want to pull for Texas based on comments from a forum board that says so much about you.

Posted by: Greg | Dec 12, 2009 5:20:15 AM

Suh is the best player in the country on a position by position player. However before the Texas game how many really nationally had him in their top five? 20% if that? He became a darling because of one great game? Just like Charles Woodson did. If Suh wins he'll be far more deserving then Woodson but he should not win the trophy based on one game which is what people are giving to him for it would seem. I do realize though that there are some who can see every game as possible and they feel he is the deserving but for the most part people are just going with what he did in his final game. Most dominant performance of the year or not(and it was) that doesn't mean he should win it.

The biggest difference between Gerhart and Ingram is that Ingram played his best against the best teams on his schedule: VA Tech, LSU and FL. The only really good team Gerhart played against was Oregon. As for the P10 have better rush defenses. More often then not in the P10 you're going to get into a shootout and the balls are going to be flying all over the place unless you're Stanford and have a ground and pounder like Gerhart so those rush numbers are bloated big. Most P10 games end up in the mid 30s to high 40s and the SEC it's usually high 10's to high 20s/low 30s. Gerhart is awesome to watch but he wouldn't be able to do what he does against an 8 conference game SEC schedule. Even if the P10 conference does/doesn't have the best rush defense the conference is still not as physical and body draining as the SEC where you have to have a backup who can come in let a guy get a breather. In the P10 the defenses are alot smaller and not nearly as physical. The biggest difference is the QB's. Andrew Luck was pretty consistent throughout the year for Stanford. McElroy struggled big time during the middle part of the year and Ingram carried them and was the offense against Ole Miss, South Carolina and Tennessee. The South Caroline game being the second best individual performance I saw all year behind Suh's against Texas. If you're going purely on most outstanding player for 2009 between Ingram and Gerhart flip a coin really. I think on that basis Case Keenum should win. Gerhart was more consistent numbers wise and had big games against great names like USC and Notre Dame and Ingram played his biggest against highly ranked teams and against the number one rush defense at the time in the SEC Championship which was the biggest game of the year.

Posted by: Joe | Dec 12, 2009 5:31:05 AM

Posted by: Joe | Dec 12, 2009 5:31:06 AM

Interesting stats:

*Breakdown TG's weakest opponents in 2009(Blow-out wins)
Stan vs Wash(1-11)-Score 39-13-TG had 23 carries & 121yds
Stan vs SJSU_2-10)-Score 42-17-TG had 24 carries & 113yds
Stan vs ASU(4-8)-Score 33-14-TG had 27 carries & 125yds
Stan vs Wash(5-7)-Score 34-13-TG had 27 carries & 200yds
Totals-TG vs the weakest teams on his schedule/blow-out wins(12-36record)carried the ball 101 times & had 559yds rushing
Avgs. vs their blow out wins-25.25 carries per game & 139.75yds per game=5.53yds per carry

*Breakdown of MI's opponents in 2009(Blow-out wins)
Ala vs FIU(3-9)-Score 40-14-MI had 10 carries & 56yds
Ala vs NTex(2-10)-Score 53-7-MI had 8 carries & 91yds
Ala vs Ark(7-5)-Score 35-7-MI had 17 carries & 56yds
Ala vs UTC(7-5)-Score 45-0-MI had 11 carries & 101yds
Totals-MI vs the weakest teams on his schedule/blow-out wins(19-29record)carried the ball 46 carries & 304yds rushing
Avgs. vs their blow out wins-11.50 carries per game & 76yds per game=6.60yds per carry

Comparisons final breakdown:
TG had 55 more carries than MI in blowout wins
TG had 255 more yards rushing than MI in blowout wins
MI had 1.13yds per carry advantage in blowout wins

Posted by: snidersmith | Dec 12, 2009 5:40:47 AM

I really think Ingram pulls this our in a close one. Suh is the most dominant player on defense this year. McCoy and Tewbow sorry this is not a lifetime achievement award. Gerhart your team had too many loses for you to win. It will come down to Ingram and Suh. It's about changing games and carring your team guys....not dominating every game. Who know where Alabama would be right now without Ingram and Texas kills Nebraska without Suh. Ingram win this one I believe.

Posted by: Rico Suace | Dec 12, 2009 5:41:33 AM

Ingram should win the Heisman. Gerhart winning the Doak Walker is a joke. He would not even get on the field at Bama, 3rd string at Best. No way he plays over Ingram or Richardson, so how the hell can he get an award for best running back in the nation. Much less an award for best player. Thats a joke.
Suh did not dominate all year like he did against Texas, but he is a great player and should finish second ( If nobody wants to talk about CJ Spiller )
Colt played well but everyone knows that nobody plays defense in the Big 12 or Pac 10.
But if Ingram does not get to wear a Heisman ring he will be wearing a National Championship ring.

Posted by: Cash | Dec 12, 2009 5:44:57 AM

I'm sure that when Derrick Thomas had his 27 sacks that he had some good dt plugging holes. Also that era of football had slow qbs in pro set offenses with 7 step drops. Don't get me wrong, Thomas was a beast. Nut since suh faced virtually nothing but spread qbs they normally ake a shotgun snap so they are already 5 yds behing the line of scrimmage plus they now have more leniant rules about throwing the ball away. There is nomore in the grasp and you usually don't see intentional grounding. So based on these points I don't want to hear about Thomas anymore. Fine player different era.

Posted by: Rick | Dec 12, 2009 5:48:43 AM

Lyons must have been out of the country since October.....ever since the Neb-Missouri game, sports announcers have been saying Suh should be considered for the Heisman award even tho it is normally given to an offensive player. He wasn't a one-trick pony. Just because you didn't know about him until the Texas game, a heck of a lot of people did, ie, all defensive awards and is considered one of the top draft choices. So when you say "all who voted for him should be stripped of their votes" just shows how ill informed you are.

Posted by: tkk | Dec 12, 2009 5:50:49 AM

Forget the ignorant hicks lyons and will. they have shown how little they know. Derrick Thomas was a backer, not a d-lineman. different position with different responsibilities and Ndamukong Suh did his job as well as sack the qb.

As far as lyons and his idea of stripping the votes, it doesn't matter what he thinks becase it is obvious that he has been stripped of any intelligence.

I hate these sites that let ignorant hillbillies spout their opinions like they matter to anyone. it shows that they don't get out of their hick shacks and see what is happening in the rest of the world.

Posted by: george | Dec 12, 2009 5:51:54 AM

Still Laughing,
Good points.... I like your post.

Note to Suh fans: Once again I state Suh is a great player and I think that he should be in the discussion to a point, however he is not in the top 100 in overall tackles in the nation... I know you say he is a defensive tackle... true enough but on a team that spent 60% of the year on defense, is still being lead by players that spent a majority of their year on three and outs, just a thought....

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 5:55:57 AM

All true college football fans out there know who the best player out there is. So enough of the my chest is bigger than yours. IF you think somebody was left out lets look at Jordan Shiply. They're all deserving of being in New York. Its proven that in years past the best player doesn't win this trophy it goes to the medias idea who is the best in July before any team kicks off.

Posted by: Casey | Dec 12, 2009 5:56:54 AM

"Ingram should win the Heisman. Gerhart winning the Doak Walker is a joke. He would not even get on the field at Bama, 3rd string at Best."

I'm sorry but you're wrong about that. Roy Upchurch is a much better all around back than Gerhart. If Upchurch played at Stanford, Gerhart wouldn't be the starter. Gerhart would be Bama's 4th string back but he'd make a heck of a special teams player.

Posted by: Legend | Dec 12, 2009 6:03:23 AM

Let me start by saying...LYONS is an IDOIOT probably living in his mothers basement cuddling with his Alabama blanket! So you are saying that Mel Kiper Jr. doesn't know what he's talking about either placing Suh #1 on his draft board??? Would you start a team with Ingram or Suh? That's what I thought.
This award isn't just about stats. It's supposed to be given to the most DOMINANT player in college football. NOT to the best player on the top BCS TEAM! I'm not even sure Ingram is the BEST player on his own team. Look past the stats. Look past your southern bias. Go back and watch some film. ALL SEASON Suh is the ONLY player in college football that could affect and control a game. Sack or no Sack!
Can't really say that about Mark. There have been allot of nice running backs over the years. There have only been a handful of once in a lifetime competitors. Suh fits the latter.

Posted by: ScottyO | Dec 12, 2009 6:04:04 AM

First of all, our hat is off to you. This is a phenomenal job you've done each year. The methodology is fascinating. And with the closeness of the race, the fact that a defensive lineman and two RBs are ahead of the QBs this year, and the evident use by some voters of their franchise to negatively vote against certain players, this has been an especially topsy-turvy ride, which has really thrust you into the limelight. You could say this year was your real "coming out" party in public awareness.

Second, I'm from the South and have watched Ingram all year, who is nothing short of Emmitt Smith in his talent, strength and ability to carry a team. There are two factors most people outside the region have utterly failed to appreciate: (1) Ingram is a fine PASS RECEIVER also. If you add the season rushing numbers and the pass reception numbers of Ingram and Gerhart, which few commentators have done, a different picture emerges. (2) Far more than Stanford, Alabama uses a rotation of running backs, and Ingram simply does not play as much time as Gerhart; he easily could have run up larger rushing numbers. Instead, Alabama would put in Trent Richardson (the next major star running back in the SEC, keep your eyes open)quite often, and also used Roy Upchurch, a very talented back with a different style.
I wouldn't take anything away from Gerhart or Suh, both great athletes. And Gerhart coming from Stanford, a school with an Ivy-like academic tradition, is impressive for that reason. The closeness in the voting, at least in the South, can be explained by a number of sportswriters in Mississippi and Tennessee (where Alabama is not well liked by those states' fans) who totally dissed Ingram, which has been noted as a matter of controversy.

Posted by: Mike | Dec 12, 2009 6:08:43 AM

Just a reminder for those that keep saying this award is for the BEST college football player. There is a huge different between best and most outstanding. There seems to be widespread misunderstanding of basic everyday words and an uprising of people who give their own inference to what the Trophy is awarded for.
"The Heisman Memorial Trophy annually recognizes the outstanding college football player whose performance best exhibits the pursuit of excellence with integrity. Winners epitomize great ability combined with diligence, perseverance, and hard work."

Posted by: Clint | Dec 12, 2009 6:09:35 AM

"Its proven that in years past the best player doesn't win this trophy it goes to the medias idea who is the best in July before any team kicks off."

Sorry, but that's not happening this year, if Ingram, Gerhart OR SUH get it...because that would have been Tebow or Bradford or McCoy...

C'mon, man...lay off the sour grapes, they are bad on your stomach.

Posted by: JC | Dec 12, 2009 6:14:22 AM

The one thing I've learned from following all of this on Stiff Arm is that Bama fans are clearly the least knowledgeable College Football Fans I've ever encountered.

Posted by: T | Dec 12, 2009 6:19:55 AM

At the end of the day, if you take Ingram off of Alabama, they will likely still be undefeated. It's not that Ingram is bad, it's just that when watching the backups spell Ingram, they were often just as impressive. Also, his numbers would be among the worst for a Heisman winner, although I think we have to give him some slack due to the fact that this race is so wide open.

Posted by: Lance | Dec 12, 2009 6:23:14 AM

Beau, what you said about Nebraska's "three and out" is so true. The only reason we ended up 8-4 is because of Suh and the defense as well as our special team players. Had it not been for them, our record would probably have been 3-9. This is why Suh and his leadership stand out and why many consider him the best football player this year. Had we had any kind of offense, we may have been right up there with Alabama and Texas., ie, we lost 3 games by less than 2 points. Tex Tech (my alma mater) was the only team that did better against Neb.

Hats off to all the 5 candidates. Since Alabama is number 1 in the nation, Ingram is a worthy winner of the Heisman.

Posted by: tkk | Dec 12, 2009 6:26:25 AM

No matter who wins this year from the top 3 projected, I'm fine with it. What I don't like is the fact that Tebow is getting an invite this year when it's pretty obvious he wasn't even close to the others. Many players have not been invited with closer results. Why 5 this year?? He gets to go to NY because of his body of work and he's a media darling, not because of his play this season. I like Tebow as a person and he plays hard, but no way should he have gotten an invite if the projected voting turns out to be accurate.

Posted by: Kathy | Dec 12, 2009 6:27:47 AM

Lyons:
YOU need to watch game film and NOT buy into the hype. Is Suh's Heisman pushed based on the last game? I won't say that isn't the case. But all the MI fans want to talk about how Ingram was at his best in the biggest game, let's give Suh props for showing up against a great team and nearly willing a team with a horrific offense to the Big 12 title.
The fact is, Suh and his teammate Crick are the only D-Lineman in the Top 300 in the tackles. He's a two-gap defensive tackle, meaning that his job is to occupy blockers for the linebackers. This is much tougher than being an end or outside linebacker, where you have fewer responsibilities. This makes the sacks and tackles that he did get that much more impressive.

Posted by: Lance | Dec 12, 2009 6:30:11 AM

Lyons, you pretentious ignorant imbecile, you are either blatantly and maliciously lying or you're a first-class idiot. Suh has been in the Heisman conversation at LEAST since October 8 when he played on national television vs. Missouri--he received votes in various Heisman polls that week.

To everyone comparing Suh's stats to Derrick Thomas' production...you IDIOTS!! THEY PLAY DIFFERENT POSITIONS!! Should Tebow beat Ingram for the Heisman because he accounted for over 3200 yards compared to Ingram's 1800 total yards? Actually, to make an accurate comparison to what you're doing, I'd have to cherry-pick the player with the best stats from "my" school in the past 30 years and compare him to your player. "Ingram sucks, Mike Rozier rushed for over 2,100 yards and 29 touchdowns with 7.8 yards per carry and had four 200 yard games to finish the season, anything less than that and you're not deserving to even be a Heisman finalist."

Lyons, don't be fool. If you didn't watch Suh play except for the Texas game, you have no idea how dominant this guy was all year. At defensive tackle, it's not about the numbers (as you should know by Terrence Cody's importance to the Tide this year--he is a very good player too), yet Suh dominated the opposing offenses and also put up enormous stats. Picture Terrence Cody taking double- or triple-teams (as he does), and then ripping past them to either run the ball carrier down from behind before he turns upfield or tossing the quarterback down like a rag doll. Suh dominated games as very few players have EVER done at his position.

Posted by: Doublenickel | Dec 12, 2009 6:33:28 AM

All the players are good but I sure hope Mark Ingram pulls this thing off. I am going to be disappointed for him if he does not but he still has the NC trophy to win either way.

Posted by: Isurehopeso | Dec 12, 2009 6:36:33 AM

Well 1 game can make or break you. Ingram was leading the heisman polls for over a month. Auburn comes in and stacks the line and says you will have to pass to win (which we finally did) and Ingram got nothing. After that 1 game everyone said he was out. FL brought him back. It appears that game blew Tebow's chances and the NU game killed McCoys.

Posted by: Spore | Dec 12, 2009 6:36:39 AM

To the gentleman whose comment went something like this "Colt played well but everyone knows that nobody plays defense in the Big 12 or Pac 10." Isn't it pretty obvious that Nebraska play defense. 3 of 4 losses by a combined 4 points, a defensive player up for the Heisman, one who single handedly and with the great help of his teammates destroyed the Heisman hopes of another candidate. Nebraska's defense ranked just as highly as Texas's vaunted offense. So to say that nobody plays defense in the Big 12 is just not a fair statement.

Posted by: Big Red Transplant | Dec 12, 2009 6:36:49 AM

As far as Ingram's numbers, when you have quality backups like we do, you have to play them. Freshman Richardson had almost 700 yds. I don't know howmany Geharts backup had, but I would bet no where near that much. Point being, if AL had of run Ingram only, he would have had Gehart type #s.

Posted by: Spore | Dec 12, 2009 6:39:04 AM

I want to say that I hope Ingram wins the Heisman, because he plays for BAMA. However, I think that a case can be made for any of the finalist, and some who didn't make it to NY. I do want to say this about the 5 finalist. No matter how good or great you think their accomplishments on the football field were, THEY all appear to be better PEOPLE off of it, and I find that refreshing in this day of T. O., Ochocinco (sp?), etc. The five finalist all have qualities, away from the field, that should make their families, schools, and fans proud, regardless of what happens tonight. Good luck to all, tonight, as well as in the future.

Posted by: Gary | Dec 12, 2009 6:39:20 AM

Other D-lineman who have not won the Heisman. Rich Glover, Nebraska - 92 tackles in '71, finished 3rd. Lee Roy Selmon, Okla. 88 tackles in '75, 40 TFL in career. Lawerence Taylor, No.Car.- 16 sacks in '80. Hugh Green, Pitt-53 sacks in career, 90+ tackles each season he played. Bruce Smith, Va. Tech- 22 sacks in '83, 71 TFL in career. Reggie White, Tennessee- 15 sacks in '83. Then there's Mean Joe Green, Bubba Smith, Fred Dryer and others pre-70's when sacks weren't recorded as an official stat. Just trying to keep Suh in perspective. None of the above won the Heisman. All of them have better stats than Suh. If you're going to give the award to Suh, then we need to back and give one to these guys too.

Posted by: mark | Dec 12, 2009 6:39:55 AM

One more thing Bama/Ingram fans. You really should stop bashing Suh and you should start thanking him. Ingram would not be winning this award without the dominante performance that Suh had against Texas and Colt McCoy. If you all remember correctly it was Colt McCoy who was the front runner for the Heisman going into last weekend. Had he put up the numbers he was all season long against Suh and Nebraska's defense he would be winning this one with a comfortable margin.

So Bama fans stop being morons, and start saying thank you to the best/most outstanding player in college football this year, Mr. Suh, for helping your boy Ingram win the Heisman.

Posted by: T | Dec 12, 2009 6:40:12 AM

there's going to be a lot of trailer park parties in bammer tonight!!

Posted by: andrew | Dec 12, 2009 6:50:24 AM

Spore, Gerharts backup was Luck the QB with an astounding 354 yards....

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 6:54:46 AM

All five are great ball players. Suh just had a better year. That big 12 championship game was just one of his many great games. He has been doing this his whole career too. Normally a defensive tackle or nose guard makes 1 or 2 tackles a game. His job is to clog up the middle so the linebackers can come in and ma...ke the tackle. Check the stats of the nose tackles in the NFL or college ball and you will see how amazing Suh's are in contrast. He is going to have an amazing career in the NFL. Far better than these other players will so maybe he should be and we should be happy for him, but do these voters ever think they will ever get it right

Posted by: Sheri | Dec 12, 2009 6:55:00 AM

Andrew.... An Auburn fan posting on a topic that doesnt include them... what a suprise.... NOT!!!

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 6:55:40 AM

I am sure Nebraska fans know plenty about quality RBs, considering that over the years they have produced dozens of great ones. Ingram is a great back, but IMO, not Heisman-worthy. Suh, on the other hand, may be the best college player ever to play his position. The things he does as a DT are phenomenal. He is the best college football player in the country and that is what the award is meant for. And for all you Ingram fans, you had better thank Suh, because if it weren't for him, I can GUARANTEE that Colt McCoy would have won it.

Posted by: FLU | Dec 12, 2009 6:56:08 AM

Kevin, I wouldnt say there always a bust in the NFL. What about Staubach, OJ, Dorsett, Earl Campbell, Marcus Allen, Tim Brown, Barry Sanders, Eddie George, Ricky Williams, Carson Palmer all busts? Thats just a few that I could think of off the top of my head that weren't busts and Im sure there are more. Just cuz all the Huskers players that won the Heisman were busts doesnt mean that Heisman winners are always busts.

Posted by: jake | Dec 12, 2009 6:56:17 AM

T, I concede your point that if Ingram wins, Suh would be part of the equation. Just for clarification I do not intend on bashing Suh with any of my statistics, just making a case for Ingram. I think Suh is an incredible athlete, who should be in the consideration for the Heisman, like he is.

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 6:57:56 AM

So Ingram -270 is a good bet? I bet $16000 that Suh will not win now I am getting scared that I will be homeless. I should of just bet McCoy will not win I did not know of this site.

Posted by: dalton | Dec 12, 2009 7:02:07 AM

I keep reading how Suh is over rated and a "manufactured" candidate. How funny. Ingram will be a practice squad back at best when he hits the NFL. He is not even the best back in College this year. Suh on the other hand will be a top draft pick, making millions and dominating NFL linemen just like he did in college. Whichever NFL team is lucky enough to get him will be building their entire D around him. Ingram on the other hand, well he will be helping his team get ready to play Suh from the practice squad, assuming he makes it that far.

Posted by: 12th-best | Dec 12, 2009 7:02:52 AM

@beau--I don't know many Auburn fans in VA..I'm sure there are a few, but I'm not one of them. Nice try friend. Keep touting an average back with the ____teen most rushing yards in the nation.

Oh yeah guys, everybody's favorite guys guy, Nick Saban, "doesn't pad stats" so lets give Ingram the trophy just because of that. That's funny.

Posted by: andrew | Dec 12, 2009 7:04:19 AM

I am so sick of hearing about Suh. So he looked good on TV in one game. Big deal. Where was Mr. Suh when Texas Tech scored over 30 points? Where was Suh when big bad Iowa State came to town and left with a big "W"? I remember when a guy named Cornelius Bennett had 21 sacks one year (yeah, almost twice as many as Mr. Suh did this year)and didn't even finish in the Top Ten finalists. I also remember when a kid named Peyton Manning was by far the best player in America (see list of Super Bowl winners) and was beaten by some defensive back from Michigan. All these guys are outstanding at their particular positions but the least deserving is Suh and if he should win, they might as well take the Heisman process and put it in a trash container and dump it into the Atlantic. It will have become irrelevant.

Posted by: Gerald Tinnon | Dec 12, 2009 7:04:54 AM

Looks like the Huskers are mad that their computerized vote rigging on the ESPN/Nissan Heisman poll won't pay off this time .

Cheer up guys . You still have that ESPN poll vote from a couple of years back declaring Tom Osbourne the supposedly "greatest" college football coach of all time . Too bad no one told you everything in life isn't decided by bogus Internet polls and having the most fans with completely idle personal computers to run hacked scripts LOL

Posted by: Suck It UP Huskers | Dec 12, 2009 7:05:46 AM

Hey Lyons, since you don't know anything about College Football, here's some information for you to chew on:

The following season stats for defensive lines, submitted for your examination.

Line #1
98 Tkl, 23.5 TFL, 9.5 Sk, 20 QBH, 5 PBU, 0 Int, 1 FF, 3 Blk

Line #2
112 Tkl, 33 TFL, 14 Sk, 48 QBH, 5 PBU, 0 Int, 1 FF, 0 Blk

Line #3
116 Tkl, 25.5 TFL, 15.5 Sk, 10 QBH, 7 PBU, 0 Int, 2 FF, 0 Blk

Line #4
82 Tkl, 23 TFL, 12 Sk, 24 QBH, 10 PBU, 1 Int, 1 FF, 3 Blk

Line #1 = Alabama.

Line #2 = Florida.

Line #3 = Texas.

Line #4 = Ndamukong Suh. BY HIMSELF!!!!!!!!!!!!

YEAH LYON, SUH DEFINITELY DOESN'T BELONG IN NEW YORK. You UA fans bashing Suh need to understand something about the position of D-Tackle before you start shooting your mouth off about players. I don't think anybody's going to mistake Ingram for Hershel Walker after this year, so stop painting your candidate out to be the "2nd coming" for averaging just over 100 YARDS A GAME! And Derrick Thomas (God rest his soul) was a Linebacker (not a defensive lineman in college. He didn't start playing with his hand on the ground until he became a pro). And in 1988 when Thomas graduated there was actually a legitimate Heisman Trophy Candidate for the masses to get behind: BARRY SANDERS, who had only a 1,000 more rushing yards than Ingram (and played 2 less games) plushe had EIGHT 200+ YARD RUSHING GAMES that season.

Yes, Ingram will likely win because of uneducated don't want to look at the stats, but Suh's game against Texas was the equivalent of Ingram having a 400 yard rushing game against Florida with 10 touchdowns.

I hope Suh wins, but his consolation prize will be a $30M rookie contract and a top 3 pick come April in the NFL draft. I challenge Ingram to come out and come even close to doing the same when he's eligible.

Posted by: universalmike | Dec 12, 2009 7:07:55 AM

Check these numbers with your own research. I did not create this list. They come from a previous Post. If correct they say an awful lot about SUH

Here are the total stats from Alabama's, Texas', and Florida's ENTIRE DL'S for this past season with Suh's season stats listed last:

Alabama Season Totals
98tkl - 23.5tfl - 9.5sk - 20qbh - 5pbu - 0int - 1ff - 3bk

Florida Season Totals
112tkl - 33tfl - 14sk - 48qbh - 5pbu - 0int - 1ff - 0bk

Texas Season Totals
116tkl - 25.5tfl - 15.5sk - 10qbh - 7pbu - 0int - 2ff - 0bk

Suh Season Totals
82tkl - 23tfl - 12sk - 24qbh - 10pbu - 1int - 1ff - 3bk

As you can see Suh's stats, by themselves compare favorably with those 3 teams

Posted by: pappy | Dec 12, 2009 7:12:04 AM

I'm a Bama fan and I think Suh is great. It's more of o popularity contest than anything and if Ingram wins it'll be great for the program but won't change the focus of this team either way. The Heisman is an honor, but if people from different parts of the country think Alabama fans in general cry because we've never had a player win one you are way off base. Alot of fans hold a certain sense of pride with the fact that with all the great players we've had and all the championship teams we've never had a player win one. Team has always came first at Alabama, and always will.

Posted by: Jay Jarrett | Dec 12, 2009 7:12:34 AM

I agree, this is not a proper place for an Auburn fan. You should be posting on the Northwestern site or worrying about getting up by 10am to watch your bowl game, name of which slips my mind. Also, losing 5 of your last 7 games and somehow sneaking into a bowl game does not make you an expert on Nick Saban, Mark Ingram or anything really. Wanna talk about "projections" as this site does? Had Saban allowed Ingram to play every game and every play, he would likely have had 2500 yards. But, I do congratulate your new coach, he is now 12-24 in his last three seasons...

Posted by: Gerald Tinnon | Dec 12, 2009 7:15:03 AM

The Heisman is unfortunately a popularity contest. The most outstanding college football player of 2009 has no chance of winning the award. The award will go to a player who Plays on a high profile SEC team that is on Sportcenter every 5 mins, who has all-american talent all around him, who sat on the bench during his teams most important drive of the year.

Questions: How many RB's in the country could you plug into the Bama offense and have them enjoy the same success as Ingram?

How many DL could step in at Nebraska and match Suh's performance?

Bottom line: Suh is the most outstanding individual talent in the 2009 season.

Posted by: triadncman | Dec 12, 2009 7:15:05 AM

Why do all of the Suh supporters type SUUUUUUUUUUUHHHHHH!!! or SUH!!!! when talking about him? Putting his name in caplocks or making the spelling longer isn't going to affect the vote. Sorry.

Posted by: Rick | Dec 12, 2009 7:15:15 AM

Gee guys ... can someone else post the stats claiming Suh is the 4th best defense in the nation all by himself ? I haven't seen them 599999 times anywhere else .

Posted by: Errmm | Dec 12, 2009 7:16:40 AM

mark: Past injustices should not dictate current ones (although not all defensive linemen you mentioned would necessarily have deserved it over the players who got it). Also, of the six players you mentioned with better stats, only Glover and Selmon were defensive tackles.

T: good point. Those who say Suh's candidacy is based on one game ignore how much Ingram's viability as the favorite is also dependent on that same game.

Lyons: As a linebacker, McClain had 102 tackles, compared to Suh's 82. McClain had 51 solo tackles compared to Suh's 50. McClain had two interceptions to Suh's 1. In every other defensive category (sacks, TFL, blocked kicks, passes defended, quarterback hurries), Suh was better than McClain, and in most cases by a comfortable margin. McClain is a very good linebacker (as has been pointed out, made better by a guy like Cody doing what most defensive tackles do, eating up blockers so the lb's can make the play). Suh has had a historically good season for his position.

Posted by: Kent | Dec 12, 2009 7:18:11 AM

The PAC-10 stats against the run look better than reality. The reason is the PAC-10 only has two teams that run the ball with any effectiveness. All but two PAC-10 offenses finish in the bottom half of the SEC in rushing yards per game.

Posted by: Chrs | Dec 12, 2009 7:18:42 AM

I hope we can all overlook the bad mouthing between the idiots that want to bash each other rather than just state your coments!

I will admit I like Ingram because I am a Bama fan but that does not take away my ability to admire Suh and Gerhardt! They are great players but since the ballot submissions are not guided by any rules we are all arguing over information that we all pull toward our own desire's!
Since I get to state my feelings on the matter lets put Gerhardt up against the Arkansas, Tennessee, Ole Miss or Florida defense and see what he does. Better yet put him up against the Bama Defense see what he does?
Now for Suh. Put him in the Big 12 Championship game and he should be ruthless and overbearing, its his only chance to shine! If he is such a game changer then why did he not change the losses into wins? Let Suh come against the 1500LB front 5 of Alabama, yes he is good enough to get past them for a few but he will not have enough impact to make it change the game!
You may want to say Ingram did nothing against Auburn (By the way Auburn lost) but they lost because their sole drive was not to let Ingram win the Heisman on Bo Jackson Turf! So Ingram selflessly took the pain for the win! His performance should not go unheralded! He ran the ball up the middle that was stacked with 7 players every time just to keep Auburn off balance so McElroy could do his job!
I think that the Heisman has been a Joke since about ten years after it became a sanctioned award! There are no real rules for ballot submitters to adhere to!

Posted by: MGYSGT | Dec 12, 2009 7:19:04 AM

To say those that Ingram stats dont compare... Excluding possibly the greatest Heisman Trophy winner ever in Reggie Bush the past three running backs to win the trophy:
Ron Dayne 1999- 6.0 YPC
Ricky Williams 1998- 5.9 YPC
Eddie George 1995- 5.875 YPC
2009 Toby Gerhart - 5.6
2009 Mark Ingram - 6.2 YPC
You tell me who rushed for more yards everytime he touched the ball? Thats what I thought...

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 7:22:08 AM

HOW OFTEN DID SUH DROP BACK INTO PASS COVERAGE? IF IT WAS MORE THEN 3 TIMES PER GAME, WOULDN'T HE BE CONSIDERED A LB THAT ALSO PLAYS DT OR A DT THAT PLAYS LB WHEN NEEDED? JUST WONDERING

Posted by: KC CRAWFORD | Dec 12, 2009 7:22:20 AM

Andrew- My apologies on the Auburn insult... hate the term bammer or barner for that matter.

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 7:25:37 AM

Hey Gerald--Not an Auburn fan here. I see, however, the reason behind their complaints about the obsession that the ones with all the NC's have with them. I learned a lot about that during our home and home with them in the late 90's.

I reside outside Roanoke, and don't know of a single Auburn fan..Including me.

I just happen to be intrigued by this years race because of the closeness. Quit worrying about Auburn so much. It has always made you guys look silly.

Posted by: andrew | Dec 12, 2009 7:27:47 AM

Ingram did it against the best of the best. That is why he should win. The pac-10 and big-12 are both jokes. Bama 40- texas 3

Posted by: tider | Dec 12, 2009 7:29:25 AM

UA fans have no one to thank but our Head Coach, our offensive coaches, and our offensive line to the outstanding (and I mean outstanding) performance of Mark Ingram. Say what you want, but he is hands down one of the best offensive players that will come from the Capstone since Shaun Alexander. It is also a known fact that it does not guarantee success in the NFL. If you look, Vince Young is only having his "breakout" season this year even though he has been in the NFL for how many yeas? I'm not saying I don't want Mark to not win, because I think he completely deserves the honor, and the the respect he has already gained from football players, coaches, and analysts is incredible. However, I do think that if he does not win this year, he will definitely take the trophy in years to come.

And UniversalMike, I can't speak for Mark but from Alabama fans---he won't need to take the challenge because he will be doing the exact same, if not better when he graduates from Alabama. I can guarantee you that.

Posted by: Anna | Dec 12, 2009 7:29:47 AM

No worries Beau. The insults on UVA have been coming nonstop from VT fans an others, so I'm pretty used to all forms of smack talk. I just wish some of our ACC brethren would look at the whole body of athletic work and not just football. I don't think we'd be a punchline after they did that.

Back to the Heisman though.....

Posted by: andrew | Dec 12, 2009 7:30:50 AM

Female Husker Fan here who has been following this site since Monday (when my husband told me about it). Of course, I would love Suh to win. Not just because I am a die hard Husker, but because of the way he dominates quarterbacks and how he carries himself. He is well spoken and is not cocky. Because I haven't seen Gerhart or Ingram play much, I went out and viewed some of their highlights. Based on this, I would have to vote for Gerhart. His second, third and fourth efforts are tremendous!! I was very impressed. Granted, I am basing this on highlights, but whoever put Ingram's highlights on the internet did him a disservice. One of the highlight clips I watched showed him celebrating more than anything. I'm sure this is not how he would want to be represented. Do either of these guys have official highlight websites? (Suh's is www.suh93.com). My prediction for the National Championship is Alabama 28 Texas 10. I thought Alabama was very impressive against Florida. Good luck to all the guys!

Posted by: Husker4Ever | Dec 12, 2009 7:32:03 AM

I forgot to add Mark Ingrams YDS per carry argument. Over half his total yards were after contact! I also like Suh who I think is a great player and if we had him on our team would be a starter but I would not rank him as any better than Rolondo or Arenas at their positions!

Posted by: MGYSGT | Dec 12, 2009 7:32:32 AM

So I've sat and read all of the above posted comments...
...with that said, "T", I couldn't agree more.

You're welcome, Mr Ingram. The best player in college football helped you win the Heisman.

Great season, Suh. It's unfortunate that some on this board would call him a one-trick pony. I live deep behind enemy lines in Sooner country and have had the privilege of watching almost every Nebraska game this year. The "one-trick" they are speaking of is the one reason Colt will not win, and Ingram will.

Posted by: cm | Dec 12, 2009 7:34:03 AM

"If he is such a game changer then why did he not change the losses into wins?"

First, some would argue (though not this Husker fan) that he did that in the Big 12 title game ... when the clock hit :00 the first time Nebraska was in the lead. Had that been allowed to stand, Suh would have been the single most important factor in a team with absolutely no offense appearing in a BCS bowl.

Second, singlehandedly winning football games is a pretty high standard to set for a player at any position. It is still a team sport, after all. Even though McCoy is the winningest qb in college football history, I find it hard to believe he would have reached that mark had he not played on a team as loaded with talent as Texas has been. It is an especially high standard for a defensive tackle.

Posted by: Kent | Dec 12, 2009 7:34:38 AM

Beau funny thing about those YPC stats of Ingram compared to past Heisman winners ... one reason I am glad Mark Ingram looks like he will take this is next year there is a distinct possibility that Eddie Lacy starts taking carries as well as Richardson .

Ingram could end up splitting rotation time next year with not 1 but 2 other backs good enough to knock Gerdhart to second or third string , average 12 ypc and you would still have chuckleheads yelling he regressed if he came up 2 yards short of this years total yardage ...

Posted by: Still Laughing | Dec 12, 2009 7:35:03 AM

Lyons,

You are a biased joke. Go be biased with you Bama fans becuase you guys have had a good couple of years.. What urked me about your post is that you say Suh must not have been that good since the team had 4 losses. What is he suppose to be? Suhperman? He cant help that he is holding teams to 11 points a game and the offense couldnt beat a pee wee defense.

If you are going to post biased CRAP, go do it on a bama board.

GBR

Posted by: derek | Dec 12, 2009 7:38:35 AM

The comments from Lyons are the absolute best I've seen on this site. (I wonder if this is from Marty Lyons, a former Alabama defensive tackle and one of the greatest college and pro defenders to ever play the game. He would eat Suh's lunch.) I'm so glad to see such a powerful, and intelligent post about why this Heisman race shouldn't even be close. Ingram is by far the best player this year, playing on the best team as well.

As for Gerhart, if you truly look at his season, you'll see others in the Pac-10, like Oregon State's Jacquizz Rodgers, are better. Gerhart and Rodgers played against each other this year. Rodgers put up 189 yards against Stanford, compared to Gerhart's 96 yards in the same game. Just because a guy gets the ball a thousand times and pads his stats does not make him the best player in college. Far from it. There are a lot of durable players out there. The Heisman rewards the most talented player, and that's Mark Ingram. But if you're hung up on stats, there is just no getting around the fact that Ingram's yards per carry is far better than Gerhart's. Gerhart would be the fourth string running back on Bama's team, behind Ingram, Richardson and Upchurch.

And as Lyons points out, Bama's Derrick Thomas had a MUCH better year than Suh and he finished 10th in the Heisman voting. (Marty Lyons was also just as dominant as Suh, and didn't get the Heisman either.)

This is rightfully Ingram's trophy. I just hope the voters actually looked at the entire season, as well as the fact that Ingram ran right through the No. 1 defense in the country in his last game while Gerhart was sitting home with the rest of his mediocre team.

Posted by: Mark | Dec 12, 2009 7:40:23 AM

Jay I couldn't agree more. The spirit of Bama is all about team and the many championship teams we've had. Would it be great to have a Heisman??? Sure, but I'm not losing sleep over it. All of these players that are in the running have done a lot for their respective teams and all fans will be biased in some way due to regional or team affiliation. It's the nature of the beast. So may the best man win! Roll Tide!

Posted by: BamaFan | Dec 12, 2009 7:42:43 AM

nobody else is betting this? It is like free money you can win betting McCoy and Tebow do not win and probably that Ingram wins.

Posted by: dalton | Dec 12, 2009 7:43:32 AM

Well let me just add one more thing that shows how dominant ingram actually was. This year against more top 25 defenses he almost had 1000 yards after carry. If that's not a breathtaking stat I don't know what is. Ingram deserves it the PAC 10 and big 12 are inferior conferences to the sec. Check the recent national champs with another headed to the game this year. The sec plays much better defense than any conference in the nation.

Posted by: Bo P | Dec 12, 2009 7:43:52 AM

I meant to say 1000 yards after contact....

Posted by: Bo P | Dec 12, 2009 7:45:29 AM

KM...you obviously did not see many Bama games this year. The offense ended up catching up with him, but he carried this team for most of the season. Game changing play after game changing play. Sad people say things without really knowing the facts! Not taking away from the other players, but this should really be no contest. Ingram, McCoy and Tebow were truely the best in the country and dynamically led their teams to awesome seasons. Yes Suh had a dominating game against Texas, but most of what I read he was invisoble in their losses. Gerhart is a great runner, but how can you compare him when he faced such pourous defenses and had a less average per carry? He also had only 12 completions to Ingram's 30. And the fact Ingram was pulled against the worst teams at half-time demonstrates you cannot just look at numbers.

Posted by: Tim | Dec 12, 2009 7:47:10 AM

If you are going to say that it is the Whole D line and not just the starters the stats for Alabama was
Alabama Season Totals
107.5tkl - 28tfl - 10sk - 29qbh - 5pbu - 0int - 1ff - 3bk

Not saying that this is greatly better just correcting the above statement about the whole Team's DL, not to mention that Alabama's D wasnt on the field long in any game.

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 7:47:38 AM

L.T. played linebacker in 1980. Green was a DE, not a DT- big, big difference. Johnny Rodgers- the Heisman winner who played with Glover at Nebraska- said that Suh was better than Glover. Now, Reggie and Selmon and Bruce Smith are better comparisons. Consider this: nearly a third of Reggie's sacks that year came against The Citadel- not exactly worldbeater competition.(I know the same is said about Suh, but at least it was against decent competition). Selmon and Suh have very similar numbers, but Selmon was also on one of the best OU defenses ever, whereas as Suh is the one who makes the Nebraska D so good. Bruce Smith had a phenomenal 1983 and 1984, no doubt. But in 1983, Mike Rozier put up over 2800 yards and 7.8 YPC. Steve Young finished 2nd with nearly 4000 yards and a 71% completion rate. Now, if Ingram or Gerhart or McCoy put up stats like that then no, Suh shouldn't win- just like Smith didn't win. And in 1984, no one but no one was getting the Heisman other than Doug Flutie.

In a year which has no standouts offensively- Ingram's good but not Heisman-worthy this year; ditto Gerhart (who I really like). McCoy's stats are nearly identical to Flutie's, but he just didn't show up in the biggest games like Flutie did. Flutie beat Heisman contender Kosar head to head in a fantastic game; McCoy got beat around by Suh and only won because NU's cruddy offense and a bad kick.

In the end, I'm making the case that Suh had the right season this year with no real offensive standouts, and he had the right game at the right time by blowing up both a good O-Line and a Heisman favorite in a great game for a conference championship. I think it's a good enough line to at least consider him for the Heisman.

Posted by: Chuck | Dec 12, 2009 7:47:46 AM

I know there are plenty of Suh defenders already here, but I'd like to address the comments that "the voting shouldn't be based on one game". This comment is true, but you should consider what else you are implying. McCoy and Tebow fell to fourth and fifth place, respectively, because of their performances in their conference championships. If the voting all took place before those games, Ingram almost definitely finishes third, even fourth. This website has made much of the fact that early votes favored McCoy by large margins. In addition, Ingram had one of his more dominant performances in the SEC title game, which propelled him, I think, head and shoulders above not only McCoy and Tebow, but Gerhart and CJ Spiller as well. Without that performance, there's a chance he's not invited to NY at all. Part of being the best player in college football is the ability to step up your game when the stage gets bigger, and both Ingram and Suh did that last weekend. Without that game, Suh may not get the exposure he needed to be considered a front runner, but two quarterbacks don't have the poor games they needed to have to make Ingram a front runner either. Suh and the Nebraska D took McCoy out of the conversation in that game.

Posted by: Gus | Dec 12, 2009 7:48:18 AM

Once again, for everyone out there: I'm not looking at Ingram's passing yards cause he's not a QB. Stop comparing Suh to Derrick Thomas. Not the same position and not the same standard. I mean, I could argue that Jerry Hughes is better based on that logic- but Suh just snapped up that Trophy from Hughes too.

Posted by: Chuck | Dec 12, 2009 7:50:48 AM

People are so ignorant on here..

I wish i could have watched all of you southern hillbillies in school trying to figure out what addition or subtraction means. It's a joke, you should have to atleast have some kind of education to post on here.

Posted by: charlie | Dec 12, 2009 7:51:15 AM

@the lyons dude who said Gerhart had a bad game. I'm betting you didn't even begin paying attention to him until the end of his season, which is still surprising, given that he ran for 742 yards and 13 touchdowns in his final four games, all legitimate Pac-10 opponents. I don't have to do the math for you to understand just how remarkable that feat is.

Fact of the matter is, Gerhart had one bad game all year (against WF), and even then, he averaged almost five yards a carry. If you get only 17 carries in a game, against a decent run defense, no one's going to break 100 yards day in and day out. Other than that game, Gerhart has been a complete machine.

And you can't blame a player for his team's schedule, or for the fact that they're not national championship contenders. Of the three biggest sports in the U.S., there is no more of a team game than football, and to say that one doesn't deserve the Heisman because his team isn't a national championship contender is ludicrous at best. Look at Gerhart's game against California, for example. Four touchdowns, 165 total yards, and they lost. You're going to tell me its Gerhart's fault because he couldn't go out and score five touchdowns? That's ridiculous guys

I'm not saying that Ingram doesn't deserve the Heisman; each of the top three in this ballot does. But you can't say that Gerhart doesn't deserve it because he "isn't consistent." He is, without a doubt, the most consistent high-profile player in the country.

Posted by: Kevin | Dec 12, 2009 7:51:58 AM

Posted by: Husker4Ever | Dec 12, 2009 7:32:03 AM

Do either of these guys have official highlight websites? (Suh's is www.suh93.com).

To answer your question on Ingram ... no .. there is no official site paid for by the University of Alabama like there is for Suh . An article published earlier in the year even discussed that Ingram's grandfather was told that if he came to Bama he would NOT be promoted by the University for any individual awards ( which apparently was right up his grandfather's alley because he felt it might give him a big head and sidetrack him )

The University of Alabama has had an unwritten policy going back decades that has kept them from doing the paid for official PR pushes . Most other schools do everything possible to hype their players if they think they have even a remote chance at having a Heisman candidate .

Some Tide fans like it that way ... others think it might be time to change that . Personally I am in the camp of those who think that team should ALWAYS come first and I would rather the University never pay for a web site to push one of our players over the achievements of the others . I am proud of what Ingram has accomplished but I am equally proud that he did it as a team player ...

Posted by: Rolling Rolling Rolling | Dec 12, 2009 7:52:11 AM

Andrew, Speaking of the Heisman the ACC would have had a winner if Clemson had beaten South Carolina, personally I think that C.J. Spiller would have won in that situation. Yes they lost to GT in the title, but they would have had some momentum coming off the rivalry game with a win... He is a phenom... Didnt think so early but watched him in a couple of games on replay and the GT game... ridiculus...

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 7:53:05 AM

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