With 249 ballots, our final projection: Sam Bradford.
Well, this is definitely one of the closest H------ Trophy races in many years. And we're glad that we held out until we got to 249 ballots, tied for the most we've ever had. 249 ballots represents 27% of the total electorate for the Trophy.
We project that Sam Bradford will earn 61% of the total possible points available. He should win by something like 160 points - making it a narrow win, but far from the closest ever. (Not even as close as 2000 or 2001, which were both under a hundred points.)
In our latest projection, Tim Tebow has moved ahead of Colt McCoy for second place -- largely on the strength of so many votes declared by voters outside of the Southwest and South in the final 48 hours. (Tebow now leads in the Northeast and Midwest.) While we're not super-confident that it's Tebow at #2, we are somewhat confident of that outcome.
Here's the regional breakdown in points:
| name | Fan | Formers | West | SW | MidW | South | Mid-Atl | NE | Unknown |
| S Bradford | 2 | 30 | 37 | 146 | 60 | 72 | 43 | 40 | 36 |
| C McCoy | 3 | 15 | 34 | 120 | 62 | 74 | 30 | 42 | 33 |
| T Tebow | 0 | 4 | 30 | 69 | 66 | 140 | 39 | 43 | 37 |
Kari Chisholm | December 13, 2008 | Comment on This Post (17 so far) |
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Comments
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WooHoo!
Time to start casting that Bradford statue in Heisman Park!
Posted by: McJacknife | Dec 13, 2008 12:12:41 PM
BOOMER SOONER!!!
Posted by: OkieSooner | Dec 13, 2008 12:34:44 PM
It'll be interesting to see if Tebow ends up with the most first place votes, yet still loses.
Posted by: killa3312 | Dec 13, 2008 12:35:26 PM
The relatively low number of publicly known votes in the NE and Mid-Atl regions make this a particularly difficult outcome to predict.
Also, although we know about a lot more publicly known votes in the SW and South regions, some of the voters in those regions who did not make their votes public may have done so for a reason. Either (A), they were afraid to reveal a 1st place vote for someone in another region ((i.e., a SW voter voting for Tebow or a South voter for Bradford/McCoy), or (B), their ballot was set up to tank someone and they didn't want to take public flak for it (i.e., a SW voter voting Bradford #1 and leaving McCoy/Tebow off the ballot). The impact of these things will be seen tonight. This will be an exciting night!
Posted by: Jack | Dec 13, 2008 12:36:45 PM
i think one of the most interesting observations is that TT got **8%** of the "former" vote, despite being neck and neck overall, and in 2nd place. just for comparison, he got almost 3 TIMES that percentage in the *home region* dominated by both of the other finalists. of the "former" vote, he apparently got 4 third place votes on about 17 ballots, and that's it. stunning. could it be a sampling bias? i have to wonder what the ulterior motives are. like i've speculated before, i can't help but think that the last thing a guy with a heisman wants is another guy to get two. i do think that is one risk of this projection, will that hold up over all 50 formers, or is there a reporting/sampling bias?
Posted by: z | Dec 13, 2008 12:37:54 PM
I think the right guy won even though I'm a sooner. He had the best statistics, which is what this award is about. Look how the formers voted. Now we have to worry about that little game against Florida. I wonder who ESPN is going to pick...Boomer Sooner.
Posted by: sooner91 | Dec 13, 2008 12:44:35 PM
these are my numbers using your same ballots:
SB: 1704
TT: 1529
CM: 1482
even if the formers split exactly evenly, TT would only pick up about 145 votes, putting him still in second.
Posted by: z | Dec 13, 2008 12:47:18 PM
i like it (hope your right).
Posted by: cbboard | Dec 13, 2008 12:48:27 PM
I think the right guy won even though I'm a sooner. He had the best statistics, which is what this award is about. Look how the formers voted. Now we have to worry about that little game against Florida. I wonder who ESPN is going to pick...Boomer Sooner.
Posted by: sooner91 | Dec 13, 2008 12:48:51 PM
"i think one of the most interesting observations is that TT got **8%** of the "former" vote, despite being neck and neck overall, and in 2nd place."
I wouldn't read too much into that. Lots of the formers only declare their top pick, rather than all three votes. Even if Tebow was only their unanimous #3 vote, he'd have 33% of the vote. As usual, I'm less happy about how the projections works with the formers - but I can't quite bring myself to chuck 'em out of the mix entirely.
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Dec 13, 2008 12:49:44 PM
I think the right guy won even though I'm a sooner. He had the best statistics, which is what this award is about. Look how the formers voted. Now we have to worry about that little game against Florida. I wonder who ESPN is going to pick...Boomer Sooner.
Posted by: sooner91 | Dec 13, 2008 12:54:13 PM
BOOMER!!
SOONER!!
Posted by: SOONERCHANCE | Dec 13, 2008 1:08:29 PM
I still am Not sure about the projections holding up without seeing more from the late voters in both the Mid Atlantic, West, and Northeast. Knowing when all the people you got votes from cast their votes is important imho, because, say, 40% of them cast their vote prior to the games last Saturday (as guys like Corso admitted to doing). Then you would expect the received votes to skew the results for what future and unknown votes are out there, if GREATER than 60% of them were turned in AFTER the games Saturday were played.
I would expect to see a huge trending difference between the two groups.
And, from what you said about later votes being received in the NE, and Midwest is true (not sure how you know they were later votes or not), then wouldn;t you expect that trend to continue for unknown votes coming in?
In other words, would you mix the regional votes coming in late together with the ones received early to gauge what future incoming votes will look like, OR are the vote breakdowns incoming right now more indicative of the unkown vote group than the early votes received.
I think you would have to know near the exact breakdown of early cast votes to late cast votes, in both the votes known and votes unknown, to make a truly accurate read.
That is also considering, of course, that we have heard the Heisman committee people (after knowing the results) asked Archie Griffin to present the award.
Posted by: Doug | Dec 13, 2008 1:16:38 PM
Wishful thinking George. You kind of remind me of what I read on Republican comments about the election projections the night before the election. Polls don't matter, anything can happen, yadda yadda yadda.
I would think that a guy who has not only correcly predicted the last 6 Heisman races, but accurately predicted the final top three in order all six years might actually have the experience over you?!
Posted by: George | Dec 13, 2008 1:23:37 PM
Am I supposed to be George?
No, I can seriously see where his projection comes from, but I'm wondering if each year has had such a dramatic shift between early cast votes and later cast votes. Imho, knowing the break down of those tow factors could weigh heavily on predicting what the remaining spread looks like. So I still have questions.
My original prediction a week ago was Tim for the most 1st place votes, but Sam for the trophy. So that could definitely happen. I'm just starting to see a little bit different trend in the late voting in some of the areas - which could make a difference.
If the story about the committee asking Griffin to present after knowing the final tally is true (as related by radio personality in NY to cover event), that certainly raises an eyebrow imho.
Posted by: Doug | Dec 13, 2008 1:41:41 PM
I heard you today on the Finnebaum radio show how do we get to see the 2009 predictions and how every body voted? Thanks
Posted by: Al Vann | Dec 8, 2009 7:03:23 PM
I'm amazed at how "afraid" voters are to go outside the quarterback tradition....
All season long with consistent performance should be the measuring stick - not a great game here and there and statistics enhanced by those several game...if performance over the entire season was the basis for selection, Suh, without question,is the man! Regardless of the winner, with congratulations extended to whomever that may be, Suh is the best player with the most heart of them all!
Posted by: Carol Casey | Dec 12, 2009 8:12:27 AM
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