Stiff Arm Trophy 2009 - We Did It!

For the eighth year in a row, we've correctly projected the winner of the H----- Trophy. Congratulations to Mark Ingram and the Alabama Crimson Tide!

And big thanks to everyone that helped: our tipsters and members of the media who were willing to share their vote with the public. Our projection and the final numbers are below. You can also read our analysis comparing our projection and the final results.

Got questions? Read more about our methodology, the results from 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008. Or view the complete list of the 600+ official voters that we know about so far.

Our Projection: FINAL

We've now completed our final projection for 2009. Read the details here.

The tally is on the left is a vote count from actual voters. The projection takes the regional breakdown and extrapolates a final total. NOTE: Here's an explanation of why the numbers total more than 100%.

Last updated: 12/12/2009, 1:51 a.m. Pacific. 313 ballots, 869 votes.

name	first	second	third	ballots	points	proj pts	%	pts	%
M Ingram	76	87	49	212	451	1349	48.6%	1304	46.9%
T Gerhart	65	66	61	192	388	1225	44.1%	1276	45.9%
C McCoy	49	54	51	154	306	947	34.1%	1145	41.2%
N Suh	94	38	52	184	410	1191	42.9%	815	29.3%
T Tebow	12	17	25	54	95	290	10.4%	390	14.0%

CJ Spiller	7	10	31	48	72	213	7.7%	223	8.0%
K Moore	2	4	6	12	20	62	2.2%	100	3.6%
C Keenum	0	2	3	5	7	20	0.7%	37	1.3%
M Gilyard	0	0	8	8	8	23	0.8%	23	0.8%
G Tate	1	1	0	2	5	12	0.4%	21	0.8%

Have you heard an official voter declare their vote?
Post your voter tips on StiffArmTrophy.com

View the complete list of the 600+ official voters that we know about.

Don't trust our counts? That's OK, we won't take it personally. View the Big Chart: every single official vote that we've found.

The H------ Memorial Trophy is a registered trademark of the H------ Memorial Trophy Trust. This site is not affiliated with the Trust, not even a little. We're not even using the H------ word, since they don't want us to. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

Copyright to and responsibility for all posts and comments are owned by their respective authors.

Obviously, the posts and comments here are the views of their authors, and not of anyone else.

While we're strong believers in free speech, we reserve the right to delete comment spam or other offensive material. Our contributors, however, reserve the right to embarass themselves in public.

Got a voter tip?

If you've heard a voter declare their vote, share your voter tips here. This only works with your help!

Want to trash talk? Lay your smack down here.

Huh? What is this?

There are 926 official voters. Many of them are sportswriters who will reveal their picks in the media well before the trophy is awarded. We'll collect those picks here, and attempt to project the winner. Our methodology.

What's this "Stiff Arm" business?

Well, we're unable to use the H------ word since the official trophy organization threatened to sue us for using the H------ word or even showing pictures of the little bronze statue. So, from here on out, it's the Stiff Arm Trophy. Stupid, but true.

Does it work?

So far, so good. In 2002, we projected Carson Palmer as the winner, and Brad Banks as the runner-up based on 127 actual ballots declared. We had the top five correct (though we had Larry Johnson at #5, not #3.) 2002 details.

In 2003, we nailed the top four - in order. On average, we were only 1.5% of the vote off from exactly calling the vote percentages for Jason White, Larry Fitzgerald, Eli Manning, and Chris Perry. We found 175 actual declared ballots. 2003 details.

In 2004, we nailed the top three in order - Matt Leinart, Adrian Peterson, and Jason White. We found 223 actual declared ballots that included 591 votes. 2004 details.

In 2005, we projected correctly the top five in order - Reggie Bush, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Brady Quinn, Michael Robinson. We found 209 actual declared ballots that included 529 votes, and were able to project accurately that Reggie Bush would be the biggest winner of all-time. 2005 details.

In 2006, we found 136 actual declared ballots that included 353 votes and we projected correctly the top three finalists in order - Troy Smith, Darren McFadden, Brady Quinn. 2006 details.

In 2007, we found 249 actual declared ballots that included 685 votes and we projected correctly the top four in order - Tim Tebow, Darren McFadden, Colt Brennan, Chase Daniel. 2007 details.

In 2008, we found 249 actual declared ballots that included 670 votes and we correctly projected that Sam Bradford would win - while Tim Tebow would get the most first-place votes. 2008 details.

Whose crazy idea is this?
This site is published by Kari Chisholm at Mandate Media, Portland, Oregon. We do internet strategy and web development for political candidates, campaigns, and causes - and once a year, we correctly project the winner of the H------ Trophy! © 2002-2009.