2006: five out of five

For the fifth year in a row, StiffArmTrophy.com correctly projected the outcome of the vote.

We made our final projection at 12:05 p.m. (pacific time) on December 9, 2006 -- about five hours prior to the presentation show on ESPN. Our projection was based on 136 actual ballots we found and tabulated.

Once again, we correctly projected the winner of the Trophy, the correct order of finish for the finalists, and pretty much nailed it on the total points.

We projected 2603 points for Troy Smith, and he picked up 2540. We projected that he would get 94.0% of the 2772 possible, and he got 91.6%.

We projected 789 points for Darren McFadden, and he had 878. We projected he would get 28.5%, and he got 31.7%

We projected 661 points for Brady Quinn, and he had 782. We projected he would get 23.8%, and he got 28.2%.

In short, we slightly overestimated Troy Smith's vote total and slightly underestimated McFadden's and Quinn's. This would be expected, given the widely-held view that Troy Smith was a landslide winner -- those supporting other candidates kept quiet.

Thanks for your help!
With the help of dozens of volunteers across America, we built the biggest and best projection with 136 declared ballots (with 353 votes) listed on the Big Chart of Votes.

Please Note: We've changed how we calculate the percentage number. Details.

namefirstsecondthirdballotspointsProjectedProjected %Actual %
Troy Smith12760133393260394.0%91.6%
Darren McFadden446196912378928.5%31.7%
Brady Quinn23327629966123.9%28.2%

Colt Brennan361524362398.6%
Mike Hart08614221374.9%
Steve Slaton051015201334.8%
Ian Johnson01789592.1%
Ray Rice01678481.7%
Garrett Wolfe02135331.2%
Dwayne Jarrett01345291.0%

Don't trust our counts? That's OK, we won't take it personally. View the Big Chart: every single official vote that we found in 2006.

View the complete list of all the official voters that we know about.

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