2006: five out of five
For the fifth year in a row, StiffArmTrophy.com correctly projected the outcome of the vote.
We made our final projection at 12:05 p.m. (pacific time) on December 9, 2006 -- about five hours prior to the presentation show on ESPN. Our projection was based on 136 actual ballots we found and tabulated.
Once again, we correctly projected the winner of the Trophy, the correct order of finish for the finalists, and pretty much nailed it on the total points.
We projected 2603 points for Troy Smith, and he picked up 2540. We projected that he would get 94.0% of the 2772 possible, and he got 91.6%.
We projected 789 points for Darren McFadden, and he had 878. We projected he would get 28.5%, and he got 31.7%
We projected 661 points for Brady Quinn, and he had 782. We projected he would get 23.8%, and he got 28.2%.
In short, we slightly overestimated Troy Smith's vote total and slightly underestimated McFadden's and Quinn's. This would be expected, given the widely-held view that Troy Smith was a landslide winner -- those supporting other candidates kept quiet.
Thanks for your help!
With the help of dozens of volunteers across America, we built the biggest and best projection with 136 declared ballots (with 353 votes) listed on the Big Chart of Votes.
Please Note: We've changed how we calculate the percentage number. Details.
|name||first||second||third||ballots||points||Projected||Projected %||Actual %|
Don't trust our counts? That's OK, we won't take it personally. View the Big Chart: every single official vote that we found in 2006.
View the complete list of all the official voters that we know about.
The H------ Memorial Trophy is a registered trademark of the H------ Memorial Trophy Trust. This site is not affiliated with the Trust, not even a little. We're not even using the H------ word, since they don't want us to. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.
Copyright to and responsibility for all posts and comments are owned by their respective authors.
Obviously, the posts and comments here are the views of their authors, and not of anyone else.
While we're strong believers in free speech, we reserve the right to delete comment spam or other offensive material. Our contributors, however, reserve the right to embarass themselves in public.