Houston Chronicle features our analysis: it's #2 votes that matter most

Based on an interview from a couple days ago, the Houston Chronicle has a rundown of the race to the finish line in this year's H------ Trophy race.

“For the first time in a while, there’s going to be some actual suspense,” said Kari Chisholm, the publisher of the Heisman-tracking Web site StiffArmTrophy.com. ...

“It’s a close three-way (race). That’s what makes it really interesting,” said Chisholm, a Portland, Ore.-based political consultant who has correctly picked the past six Heisman winners. “And two of the candidates are from the same region.”

With Bradford and McCoy coming out of the Big 12, the two quarterbacks could split the vote in the Southwest, which includes Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri and New Mexico. There are six regions and 926 voters — media members and past Heisman winners — who make up the Heisman electorate.

Tebow lost the Southwest to Arkansas’ Darren McFadden last year but won by 254 points thanks to capturing the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest and Far West regions.

With no clear favorite, all three finalists could receive 200 first-place votes, similar to the 1995 race when George (268), Frazier (218) and Danny Wuerffel (185) almost accomplished the feat, according to HeismanPundit.com publisher Chris Huston.

The difference in the race could be swing states such as California. There are several regions up for grabs (Far West, Midwest and Northeast) with no candidates from those areas.

“Those swing regions are going to figure out who wins this thing,” Chisholm said.

In tracking of 195 official voters Friday, StiffArmTrophy.com has Tebow with 74 first-place votes, followed by Bradford (62) and McCoy (55). But that gives Tebow only a slight edge with Bradford or McCoy keeping pace with a high concentration of second-place votes.

“Every vote is counting,” Chisholm said. “If this race was just about first-place votes, Tim Tebow is a big winner. But second-place votes are driving this thing.”

Kari Chisholm | December 13, 2008 | Comment on This Post (1 so far)
Permalink: Houston Chronicle features our analysis: it's #2 votes that matter most



Kari, do you see any way Tebow can pull this thing out?

What if you remove the former Heisman voters from the projections?

How would that affect things? Seems like the "formers" are the ones who are most against a repeat winner and could be skewing the results.

Posted by: Teboned | Dec 13, 2008 3:55:23 PM

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