Compiling the other projections

Note: This post updated to include one more major national poll - the CBS Sports poll.

In addition to, there are six other major polls of H------ Trophy voters out there. Two of them, the Scripps-Howard/Rocky Mountain News poll and the Sentinel poll, are season-long polls of ten voters each. Four polls are one-off polls of much larger numbers of voters - the CBS Sports (32 voters), Tulsa World (55 voters), the Gainesville Sun (95 voters), and the Oklahoman (100 voters).

The Tulsa World and the Oklahoman called it Bradford/McCoy/Tebow. The Gainesville Sun has a tie between Tebow and Bradford, with McCoy third. CBS Sports has it Tebow/Bradford/McCoy. The poll has it Bradford/Tebow/McCoy. And Scripps-Howard, which has been right 18 of the last 22 years, has it McCoy/Bradford/Tebow.

Taking a page from the world of politics, I thought it would be helpful and interesting to combine all six polls into a single large meta-sample. (See for how it's done in politics.)

First, three caveats: #1. The two season-long polls use a different scoring system (5-4-3-2-1), and don't release the individual votes, so I attempted to backward-engineer the complete vote tables. I may have gotten 'em slightly off, but since they're just 20 votes out of 270, it probably doesn't matter much. #2. It's entirely likely that some individual voters might appear in several of these polls, causing their preferences to be overweighted. Nothing to be done about that. #3. We are, of course, trusting that each of these polls used a uniform sample that's designed to be representative of the six regions.

OK, with the disclaimers out of the way, here's what I found:

Tulsa World12098100
Gainesville Sun194194153
Orlando Sentinel / HeismanPundit.com241816
Scripps Howard211422
CBS Sports626955

Interestingly enough, while NONE of the four big polls had it Bradford #1, Tebow #2, and McCoy #3, that's how the combined numbers came out... just like the analysis. (And the Orlando Sentinel / poll.)

Kari Chisholm | December 13, 2008 | Comment on This Post (0 so far)
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