Compiling the other projections
Note: This post updated to include one more major national poll - the CBS Sports poll.
In addition to StiffArmTrophy.com, there are six other major polls of H------ Trophy voters out there. Two of them, the Scripps-Howard/Rocky Mountain News poll and the HeismanPundit.com/Orlando Sentinel poll, are season-long polls of ten voters each. Four polls are one-off polls of much larger numbers of voters - the CBS Sports (32 voters), Tulsa World (55 voters), the Gainesville Sun (95 voters), and the Oklahoman (100 voters).
The Tulsa World and the Oklahoman called it Bradford/McCoy/Tebow. The Gainesville Sun has a tie between Tebow and Bradford, with McCoy third. CBS Sports has it Tebow/Bradford/McCoy. The HeismanPundit.com poll has it Bradford/Tebow/McCoy. And Scripps-Howard, which has been right 18 of the last 22 years, has it McCoy/Bradford/Tebow.
Taking a page from the world of politics, I thought it would be helpful and interesting to combine all six polls into a single large meta-sample. (See pollster.com for how it's done in politics.)
First, three caveats: #1. The two season-long polls use a different scoring system (5-4-3-2-1), and don't release the individual votes, so I attempted to backward-engineer the complete vote tables. I may have gotten 'em slightly off, but since they're just 20 votes out of 270, it probably doesn't matter much. #2. It's entirely likely that some individual voters might appear in several of these polls, causing their preferences to be overweighted. Nothing to be done about that. #3. We are, of course, trusting that each of these polls used a uniform sample that's designed to be representative of the six regions.
OK, with the disclaimers out of the way, here's what I found:
poll | Bradford | Tebow | McCoy |
Tulsa World | 120 | 98 | 100 |
Oklahoman | 226 | 164 | 172 |
Gainesville Sun | 194 | 194 | 153 |
Orlando Sentinel / HeismanPundit.com | 24 | 18 | 16 |
Scripps Howard | 21 | 14 | 22 |
CBS Sports | 62 | 69 | 55 |
COMBINED | 647 (71%) | 557 (61%) | 518 (57%) |
Interestingly enough, while NONE of the four big polls had it Bradford #1, Tebow #2, and McCoy #3, that's how the combined numbers came out... just like the StiffArmTrophy.com analysis. (And the Orlando Sentinel / HeismanPundit.com poll.)
Kari Chisholm | December 13, 2008 | Comment on This Post (0 so far) |
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