146 ballots: still too close to call

Well, we've got another 30 ballots or so - and things are getting closer, not clearer. Sam Bradford retains his lead, but it's shrinking, with both Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy picking up more votes.

We continue to have more votes recorded for Tim Tebow, but they're so heavily concentrated in the South region that Bradford is continuing to show a higher overall projection based on his strength nationwide.

Here's the regional breakdown of points (not votes) for the top three candidates:

name	Fan	Formers	West	SW	MidW	South	Mid-Atl	NE	Unknown
S Bradford	2	15	18	73	19	50	25	33	17
T Tebow	0	0	15	41	30	106	21	31	24
C McCoy	3	9	18	54	29	53	14	26	21

We'll have another update tonight.

One more thing: A few folks have asked about the projection percentages -- how can they all be above 50%? The answer is in the voting process. Each voter gets three ranked votes (#1, #2, #3). First place votes count for three points, second place is two points, third place is one point.

So, each voter has six points -- but the maximum any candidate can get is three. So, if you were a unanimous #1 pick, you'd get 50% of the points available.

That reads a little funny, so a couple years back, we changed how we calculate percentages. Rather than percentage-of-all-points, we show you percentage-of-unanimous. A perfect score, as a unanimous #1 pick, would be 100%. A unanimous #2 pick would have a 66.6% vote, and a unananimous #3 pick would have a 33.3% vote.

For example: in 2007, Tim Tebow got 70%, Darren McFadden got 61%, Colt Brennan got 23%, and Chase Daniel got 15%. Reggie Bush and Troy Smith are the top two H------ Trophy winners of all time, with 91.8% and 91.6% of the vote, respectively.

Kari Chisholm | December 10, 2008 | Comment on This Post (8 so far) Permalink: 146 ballots: still too close to call

Comments

How is it that Tebow has more points but you project bradford as a higher percentage..how does that work?

Posted by: p | Dec 10, 2008 4:40:35 PM

Hey Kari. Wanted to let you know that this site is great.

Also, the most recent update (146 ballots) doesnt look like the actual chart was updated from the last update (117 ballots)....

Posted by: J G | Dec 10, 2008 4:42:42 PM

p:

"How is it that Tebow has more points but you project bradford as a higher percentage..how does that work?"

Dude, Kari answers that very question right above, probably due to all of you tebowners out there. The answer is:

"We continue to have more votes recorded for Tim Tebow, but they're so heavily concentrated in the South region that Bradford is continuing to show a higher overall projection based on his strength nationwide."

Posted by: J G | Dec 10, 2008 5:23:03 PM

Man, I hate that the Heisman has become more and more a popularity contest than it ever has. But the numbers aspect behind it is very appealing. I'm glad you've provided this site and, to be honest, was pretty worried when I didn't see it up Sunday morning. Thanks for continuously providing this. Can we donate?

Posted by: TopDawg | Dec 10, 2008 5:34:39 PM

I hate to see that the Heisman has become more of a popular vote than it ever has before, but the numbers game behind it is very, very intriguing. I'm glad you've brought this site up each year and, honestly, was a little concerned when it wasn't updated for the year Sunday morning. Any way we can donate?

Posted by: TopDawg | Dec 10, 2008 5:35:40 PM

kari, You updated the vote ballots and mentioned the race getting tighter but you did not update the projection!!

Posted by: David | Dec 10, 2008 10:09:17 PM

still planning on updating this tonight???

Posted by: j g | Dec 10, 2008 10:21:14 PM

Argh. My bad. Didn't republish the rows in the table. Those are now fixed - and the next update is underway shortly.

Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Dec 11, 2008 1:32:37 AM

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