We did it! Eight years in a row. Mark Ingram, in the closest finish ever.

For the eighth year in a row, we've correctly projected the winner of the H----- Trophy. Congratulations to Mark Ingram and the Alabama Crimson Tide!

We projected that Ingram would get 1349 points, 48.6% of the maximum points possible. He earned 1304 points, 46.9% of max - just 1.2% off. We had also correctly pegged Toby Gerhart as the second-place finisher, with a projected 1225 points (44.1%) and an actual 1276 points (45.9%, also just 1.2% off.)

Ingram beat Gerhart by the closest margin ever, which validates our final projection: Mark Ingram, in a close one.

We were surprised by the third-place finish of Colt McCoy. He earned 198 points more than we expected. Tim Tebow, who placed fifth (as we projected), earned 100 points more than we expected. In retrospect, it's clear that voters who voted for McCoy and Tebow were underrepresented in our sample - likely because they didn't want public disclosure.

Ndamukong placed fourth; also a surprise. We projected 1191 points, and he earned only 815. (It's worth noting that that's the highest total for a fourth-place finisher in history, according to ESPN.) Why did Suh perform poorly compared to our projection? Most likely, the voters who voted for him - essentially arguing for an historic selection of a defensive lineman - were substantially more likely to publicly disclose their ballots.

It's almost certain that it was a combination of the "embarrassment" factor and the "campaigning" factor that led to McCoy and Suh being swapped in our projection. Over the next few days, we'll continue to dig into the numbers.

In 2010, we're hoping to start our analysis a little earlier in the season, and have some exciting things planned. Stay tuned!

Kari Chisholm | December 12, 2009 | Comment on This Post (128 so far)
Permalink: We did it! Eight years in a row. Mark Ingram, in the closest finish ever.

Comments

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Sam
Did you even watch the Big 12 Championship game. Suh was double teamed everyplay. If he wasn't double teamed he was smart enough not to chase after the uterus's golden boy, because it was a screen.

Posted by: Double_K | Dec 13, 2009 9:23:15 PM

what a bunch of homers

Posted by: nodoginnafight | Dec 14, 2009 5:51:32 AM

Is it me or does Gerhart look like he's on roids? He's got the protruding forehead, big-ass squared chin and acne. I would never want to accuse anybody of something like that but c'mon something looks out of whack. I'm not sayin', I'm just sayin'!

Posted by: John | Dec 14, 2009 8:50:20 AM

Congrat kari. I have been following you since the beginning. Its been fun watching this site grow and get the deserved recognition.

Posted by: Dave | Dec 14, 2009 11:17:25 AM

ROD EDWARDS U STUPID IGNOTANT SLUT - INGRAM THE BEST OFFENSIVE PLAYER ON BAMA'S TEAM AND THE BEST IN THE NATION

Posted by: THE BEAR | Dec 14, 2009 1:36:12 PM

CHRISTOPHER U STUPID IGNORANT SLUT FL BAMA GAME NOW ON CBS COLLEGE

Posted by: THE BEAR | Dec 14, 2009 1:37:37 PM

INGRAM 200 YDS A GAME VS 5 RANKED OPPONENTS ,,,,115 OF THAT AFTER CONTACT ...27 CARRIES OF 10 OR MORE YYDS AGAINST THE 5 RANKED

Posted by: THE BEAR | Dec 14, 2009 1:38:47 PM

INGRAM DESERVING SUH MCCOY DESERVING ...GERHART NOT ....NOW I WILL CHECK HIS FIRST REAL GAME VS OK....

Posted by: THE BEAR | Dec 14, 2009 1:39:46 PM

GERHART WILL BE EXPOSED BY GOOD DEFENSE LIKE ....BIG TEN VS FL 2006 2007 ....EXPOSED LIKE BRADY QUINN BY LSU 06 ..LIKE TEXAS TECH OFFENSE VS BAMA 05 OLE MISS 08 ...LIKE OK OFFENSE VS FL 08 ....TROY SMITH OSU QB VS FL O6

Posted by: THE BEAR | Dec 14, 2009 1:42:29 PM

GERHART BIG STIFF - THE GREAT WHITE OVERRATED DOPE

Posted by: THE BEAR | Dec 14, 2009 1:42:51 PM

SO CAL RB U - SAID SCHOLLY TO PLAY LB OR FB -- IF WUSS BELIEVES IN HIMSELF HE GOES TO SOCAL AND PROVES HIMSELF ON A PROVEN TEAM THAT PLAYS IN GREAT BOWLS AND PLAYS TEXAS NAD OHIO STATE IN NON CONFERENCE....BUT NO HE GOES TO STANFORD AND LOSES 4 GAMES

Posted by: THE BEAR | Dec 14, 2009 1:44:42 PM

3.5 YPC FRESHMAN YR BECAUSE HE SUCKS

Posted by: THE BEAR | Dec 14, 2009 1:45:12 PM

SUH LOST VT GAME - HIS JOB NOT TO GIVE QB ALL DAY TO THROW AND HE DID - POSSIBLY ON TAKE SUCH A POOR EFFORT

Posted by: THE BEAR | Dec 14, 2009 1:46:57 PM

THANK YOU WEBSITE -LIFE LAST WEEK WOULD HAVE BEEN MISERABLE WITHOUT THIS SITE THINKING MARK WAS GOING TO GET ROBBED ....CONFIDENCE IN THE SITE GAVE ME PEACE

Posted by: THE BEAR | Dec 14, 2009 1:49:25 PM

gerhart would not stand a chance against an alabama cornerback

Posted by: THE BEAR | Dec 14, 2009 2:34:56 PM

gerhart could not walk on at bama or so cal - pete carroll recruited him as a fullback or linebacker

Posted by: the bear | Dec 15, 2009 11:01:30 AM

Great job StiffArm...very impressive! Awesome acceptance by Mr. Ingram...very gracious by all accounts. As for the posts on here defending this player and bashing that one, grow the heck up! The Heisman has never been about the best stats, ever! With so many teams and conferences, comparing stats is not possible. And if a coach pulls out a player at half-time to so as not to run up a score, we are going to penalize the player? This whole confersation is just ridicuous!

Posted by: Tim | Dec 15, 2009 9:47:57 PM

Am I the only one who thinks that guy above commenting as "The Bear" is a worthless piece of spung? How is it that a guy like this feels the need to disparage a guy like Gerhart? What an impish loser. Whereever this guy goes there's a cloud of negativity and real bad stink. Stay in the south a-hole.

Posted by: Mother Therasa | Dec 17, 2009 11:05:16 PM

I'm thinking "the bear" isn't really an Alabama fan. I think he's an Auburn fan posing as a Bama fan to give Alabama fans a bad rep. I know it's sad but there really are Auburn fans that do that on various message boards.

Posted by: Rick | Dec 18, 2009 7:33:13 AM

u slap my guy - i slap your guy....roll tide roll

Posted by: the Bear | Dec 21, 2009 4:17:01 PM

Rick - u r a brown noser...uuthin worse

Posted by: the Bear | Dec 21, 2009 4:18:35 PM

Don't come with this lame crap about Ingram and you won't get smashed like a bug.

Posted by: the Bear | Dec 21, 2009 4:19:44 PM

and apparently i did not like the disparaging comments on Ingram - I don't start the mess - I just end it.

Posted by: the Bear | Dec 21, 2009 4:20:53 PM

rick called christopher an idiot - what a hypcocrite

Posted by: the Bear | Dec 21, 2009 4:44:01 PM

rick - bad news - mother theresa is probably not a chick

Posted by: the Bear | Dec 21, 2009 4:45:02 PM

mother theresa - where are ur posts?

Posted by: the Bear | Dec 21, 2009 4:48:23 PM

told you so - toby would get exposed - terrible first quarter ...in the 3rd qtr going to toby and 4 out 6 plays - stuffed results 2 3 and outs....2 good runs for tds but set up by int and blocked punt................the heisman voters barely got it right....but not by the efforts of scumbag writers in the southeast who left ingram off ballot

Posted by: the bear | Dec 31, 2009 2:00:39 PM

TOLD YOU SO - INGRAM STUD POWER LEAPING VISION SPEED SMART

Posted by: THE BEAR HAMMER | Jan 12, 2010 3:38:23 PM


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