Our final projection: Mark Ingram, in a close one.

It's such a close race, that we'd like to hang on for a few more days and convince another hundred voters to share their picks -- but alas, time has run out.

There's also something tempting about just declaring it "too close to call", but that just won't do.

We're now up to 313 ballots, 33.8% of all the ballots. And on those 313 ballots, we project that Mark Ingram will earn 1336 points - or 48.1% of the maximum 2778 possible.

We're now projecting that Toby Gerhart will earn 1241 points - or 44.7% of the max possible. Ndamukong Suh will earn 1188 points - or 42.8% of the max possible.

Colt McCoy comes in at 939 points, or 33.8%; and Tim Tebow comes in at 295 points, or 10.6%.

We are reasonably confident that Mark Ingram will win the Trophy. With only a 3.4% advantage over Gerhart, it's far from a sure thing - as our past projections have overestimated the top-two gap by 2.6 to 4.2%. That said, it would take a fairly dramatic difference between the known and unknown ballots for Ingram to lose.

We are not, however, confident that Gerhart will defeat Suh for second place. With less than a 2% gap, it's too close to call. Even late Friday, as batches of ballots were coming in, Suh and Gerhart traded places several times.

We're very confident that McCoy will place fourth - and that Tebow will place fifth.

In addition, we're projecting with confidence that Ndamukong Suh will earn the most first place votes. We also project that Toby Gerhart will earn the second-most first place votes (even though we've tracked more #1s for Ingram.)

Here's the final regional breakdown of the ballots we've tracked down:

nameFanFormersWestSWMidWSouthMid-AtlNEUnknown
M Ingram116248571110564134
T Gerhart0967706980443018
N Suh311321277464373023
C McCoy02626794050382612
T Tebow05877382082

Kari Chisholm | December 12, 2009 | Comment on This Post (339 so far)
Permalink: Our final projection: Mark Ingram, in a close one.

Comments

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Andrew... if it makes us look silly, I cannot imagine how it makes Auburn look. lol They are absolutely obsessed with Bama football. You should listen to the Paul Finebaum Radio Network on the Internet and you will see what I mean...

Posted by: Gerald Tinnon | Dec 12, 2009 7:53:21 AM

Whoever said Suh should have better stats because Nebr defense is on the field more has not seen him run down quarterbacks. The longer a defense is on the field the more tired they get. Also look at Jared Crick's numbers. Offensive lines are so focused on stopping Suh that it frees Crick up to make plays.
The people that only saw what he did against Texas should realize that if
he can do that against Texas, he could do it against anyone. Offenses planned around Suh. Why do people that didn't see him play assume that Texas is the only good game he had? The people that argue that Ingram had less carries need
to realize that the award isn't done by what he could have achieved by carrying more. If it is a blowout, then the team you are playing isn't that good which means that the stats came against an easy opponent. It is quite sad to see running backs be considered Heisman candidates average a little over 100 yards
a game. To the person saying Peyton Manning was the best quarterback in college. I seem to remember Nebraska playing Tennesee in a bowl game against him. I seem to remember him on his back a lot and maybe he didn't finish the game. He even said his brother is a better passer than he is.

Posted by: Randy | Dec 12, 2009 7:55:04 AM

I just have to wonder how much understanding "lyons" actually has of football. You can't evaluate someone like Suh by statistics alone, even though for a defensive tacle he has gaudy statistics. Suh's job in the defensive scheme was to take on blockers, to engage them so that they could not block others, and Suh do this so well that teams had to change how they did everything offensively. Suh took on 2-3 blockers every play. Almost every team that Nebraska played implemented roll outs so that they could get their QB out of a constantly collapsing pocket. For Suh to play in a defensive system like he did and still rack up the kind of defensive numbers that he did is rediculous. Not to mention the fact that Suh did this w/o having a bunch of all Americans on his team. Really how good do you think McCoy, Tebow or Ingram would be w/o having stellar lines, reciever and others on the team. McCoy and Tebow both play in a system where they mostly throw short passing plays. What this relies on is the reciever's ability to make YAC. Technically most of the yardage that those two are credited for should be credited to the pass catchers. Suh was the one on his team that made those around him better. By taking on 2-3 blocks per play he free'd up fellow DT Jared Crick to be able to almost match him in tackles. He made DEs Piere Allen and Barry Turner better by collapsing the pocket and flushing the QB into their arms. He made the DB's better by not giving the QB enough time. The major reason that lots of average football fans did not know much about Suh was because of the lack of national coverage their games got this year and the fact that DT's accomplishments don't usually make the highlight reel.

Posted by: Keith | Dec 12, 2009 7:55:12 AM

Charlie,
The north south Hillbilly insults might have worked if this was not 1876 but since the dawn of airplanes, cars, and the internet its hard to stereotype one area of the countries as backwards as their are just as many people from the North living in the South and vice versa...

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 7:56:48 AM

MINOR CORRECTIONS
Charlie,
The north south Hillbilly insults might have worked if this was 1876, but since the dawn of airplanes, cars, and the internet. Its hard to stereotype one area of the countries as backwards, as their are just as many people from the North living in the South and vice versa...

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 7:59:40 AM

Can do Errmm!

The following season stats for defensive lines, submitted for your examination.

Line #1
98 Tkl, 23.5 TFL, 9.5 Sk, 20 QBH, 5 PBU, 0 Int, 1 FF, 3 Blk

Line #2
112 Tkl, 33 TFL, 14 Sk, 48 QBH, 5 PBU, 0 Int, 1 FF, 0 Blk

Line #3
116 Tkl, 25.5 TFL, 15.5 Sk, 10 QBH, 7 PBU, 0 Int, 2 FF, 0 Blk

Line #4
82 Tkl, 23 TFL, 12 Sk, 24 QBH, 10 PBU, 1 Int, 1 FF, 3 Blk

Line #1 = Alabama.

Line #2 = Florida.

Line #3 = Texas.

Line #4 = Ndamukong Suh. BY HIMSELF!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: Suh-nami | Dec 12, 2009 8:03:13 AM

Beau, I would think Spiller is deserving of recognition and probably should be invited but he just did not get the coverage. I do not think the GT game would have been enough although i think his performance actually smokes Gerhardt! Do not get me wrong I like Gerhardt and think he should be invited! Without spiller we would not mention his team on this forum!

Posted by: MGYSGT | Dec 12, 2009 8:04:11 AM

To the poster who asked where was Suh when the big, bad cyclones came to Lincoln? While his butter-fingered offense was turning the ball over eight times, Suh was blocking Field Goal attempts and helping to keep his team in the game with as many tackles as his offense had turnovers (for those who don't like story problems, he had 8 tackles that game). The difference between the 9-4 Nebraska team and a 12-1 or 13-0 team is a competent offense. That's how the SEC has become the top conference: crushing D, competent offense.

Also, the reason you see NU fans type SUH! or SUUUUUUH! Is that it's the closest approximation to have 70,000 fans screaming his name after the multitudes of big plays he's had this year. It's a tradition that goes back seven or eight years to some LBs named Ruud.

One last note, Suh drops back into coverage because he's a 6'4" ball hawk who knows how to sit in a passing lane, not because he's a linebacker who puts a hand down. How many 300lb linebackers who can bullrush and beat a 700lbs of center/gaurd combos do you know of? It's why you cannot accurately compare him to LBs or DEs: completely different techniques and expectations. He's routinely beating double and triple teams: how often does a DE meet a double team on a pass play?

Posted by: Chris | Dec 12, 2009 8:05:55 AM

I think Spiller should be in the hunt as much as Gerhardt and Suh! The reason he has been left out of the argument is because ESPN knows he would draw votes away from Gerhardt!

Posted by: MGYSGT | Dec 12, 2009 8:09:29 AM

MGYSGT, You are 100% correct about not being mentioned without Spiller... Clemson would have been like 4-9 without CJ this year. Incredible player...

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 8:09:51 AM

Taylor played DE & LB in '80. Also, I said defensive lineman, not DT. Regardless of who won the trophy in what year, the point is: some on here need to stop making Suh out to be the greatest DL in history. Suh is a very good player and deserves to finish in the top 5. But he's not better than the ones I mentioned. Plus, I left some others off like Tommy Harris, Randy White, etc. Now that I think about it, that's who Suh compares to best, Randy White. Strong and fast, but heavier. Had similar numbers too. White also won all the lineman awards, just like Suh. Bear Bryant said White was the best D-lineman he'd seen since Lee Roy Jordan. But he didn't even finish in the top 5. Of course he should have.

Posted by: mark | Dec 12, 2009 8:10:01 AM

I like how the Bama fans compare Suh to Derrick Thomas, but fail to compare him to Terrence Cody. Put their stats against each other and see how dominant Suh was. I don't want to hear the argument that the defensive philosophy is different, because it's not. They are both there to occupy blockers, but Suh does more than that. It also doesn't explain why Cody doesn't have very many sacks, hurries or passes broken up. Where is he during pass situations? Occupying blockers but not rushing the quarterback? There is no comparison.
Also let's compare two SEC backs:
Back 1: 118 ypg
Back 2: 126 ypg
Comparison of like opponents:
Back 1:133 carries 649 yds 4.8 ave 7 TD
Back 2:148 carries 812 yds 4.4 ave 8 TD

Back 1:Mark Ingram
Back 2:Anthony Dixon
I argue Ingram's not even the best back in the SEC

Posted by: SG | Dec 12, 2009 8:22:58 AM

Hi Lyons,
One stat that can't go without notice is Gerhart's performance against ranked teams. Try 203 rushing yards per game. It doesn't matter much though. He could average 300 yards per game and he wouldn't win because he plays out west. Too much east coast bias.

Posted by: Glen | Dec 12, 2009 8:24:15 AM

Randy White was also a defensive end at Maryland. I understand you're lumping all defensive linemen together, but they really are two different positions with different expectations and skill sets. Comparing Suh to a defensive end is like comparing a fullback to Ingram.

Posted by: Kent | Dec 12, 2009 8:24:27 AM

I should have added, if a fullback had numbers comparable to Ingram, he should clearly be in the discussion for the Heisman.

Posted by: Kent | Dec 12, 2009 8:25:46 AM

how many times did dixon get the ball

Posted by: Steven Daniel Hanback | Dec 12, 2009 8:25:56 AM

If Ingram does in fact win it - It's a good selection. Six or seven really good candidates this year without a tremendous amount of seperation between them in my opinion. I'm kinda sorry to see Colt McCoy's chances drop so dramatically after one lackluster performance. Even then, he did drive his team down for the winning score ....

Might just say more about short attention spans rather than McCoy himself.

But Ingram is the best runningback, McCoy the best quarterback, Suh the best defensive lineman .... hard to compare apples and oranges like that - but that's what the voters have to try to do ....

Posted by: nodoginnafight | Dec 12, 2009 8:26:25 AM

IIIINNNNNNGGGGGGGGGGGGG-RAM!!!!! There. He should win now.

Posted by: layedbak | Dec 12, 2009 8:26:41 AM

LOL someone said TO wasn't a great coach... I'm not even going to comment because I can't stop laughing

Posted by: paul | Dec 12, 2009 8:26:42 AM

kari, have you found (and maybe you've already said the answer) that the majority of formers vote their position?

Posted by: cwh | Dec 12, 2009 8:27:24 AM

Doesn't the Heisman go to the "most outstanding player in the nation?" Well, I don't think Ingram is even the most outstanding on his team. (Rolando, Cody, and TRich can develop into a better RB) Without Ingram (as the case vs Auburn) the Tide was able to win without him.

At Tennessee, Ingram fumbled the ball with 5 minutes or so left when he was fighting for extra yards up 9. That led to a Vol touchdown and a chance for them to win when they recovered an onside kick. But, it was TERRENCE CODY who blocked his second field goal in the game to save the Tide.

Posted by: CJF | Dec 12, 2009 8:29:22 AM

For all of you who discount SUH for the Heisman need to do a little more homework. And too compare what Derrick Thomas did to what Suh has done is ridiculous also. Thomas played a position at which all he was asked to do was rush the QB, he did'nt defend the run or the pass, all he did was rush the QB from the DE/LB position. SUH had 12 sacks from DT where he was constantly double and triple teamed so much to the point of which officials could have called holding on the opposition on every play. The games where he was not as dominate he still affected the game because it opened up for the others on the d-line like Jared Crick who finished second on the team in tackles also from the DT position to make plays including having a 5 sack 10 tackle performance against Baylor. DT's don't record 82 tackles in a season, break up 10 passes, they are supposed to hold up the O-line for the LB's to make plays. He also has 4 interceptions for his career, and has caught a touchdown pass. Every team Nebraska faced has had to change there gameplan around SUH. I could sit here all day and throw out numbers on why some guys should and or should'nt be a Heisman finalist. Including Ingram who is 12th in the country in rushing, has had 3 games under 100 yards including a 50 yard performance against Arkansas. So please, to the anti-SUH people...shut up and do a little more homework. There is more to the game of football than running, throwing, and catching.

Posted by: monty | Dec 12, 2009 8:32:11 AM

Ingram's fumble is the only one for him in his career...

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 8:34:37 AM

Anyone that doesn't think Suh should have a chance at the Heisman DOESN'T know football. And you obviously didn't see him play - Give me a break.

Posted by: glc | Dec 12, 2009 8:35:08 AM

The five final Heisman candidates are all deserving players and decent people. Although the bashing on this site might be due to certain posters' over-exhuberance in supporting their favorites or teams, it is unseemly. The comparison between statistics and thoughts regarding who should win are part of the fun regarding this site. But please do not resort to ad hominem attacks against any of these fine student-athletes. They deserve much more respect than that.

Posted by: Melvin | Dec 12, 2009 8:35:28 AM

It seems to me that there is a lot of discussion between the RB's and Suh...so we can pretty much throw Tebow and McCoy out of the mix. My solution...I say we put Ingram, Gerhart, and Suh on the field, and run Oklahoma drills. Then we can see if Suh can dominate, or if the RB's can dominate.

Posted by: phil | Dec 12, 2009 8:36:11 AM

To say Suh only had one good game is ridiculous. He has several games as good or nearly as good as the one against Texas. To me, a RB who "only" got 1500 yards rushing, that is really on the low end of Heisman-worthy production. 6 yard per carry is nothing special either, the standard for a typical NU-caliber RB was closer to 8 yards per carry. So the discussion of 6.2 YPC vs. 5.6 for Gerhart, neither of those are anything to be bragging about. ingram was a key cog in a fine Alabama team, but there were 2-3 other players on the team his caliber. The presence of those other players furthered Ingram's success. On the other hand, opponents keyed on Suh every game. Sorry, but Suh's stats at his position are far more impressive than Ingram's. It looks like Ingram will probably win, but that will only be because of the bias against defensive players, not because he was the best player. So no, Ingram is not deserving. Frazier was and Crouch probably not, for that matter.

Posted by: Knox | Dec 12, 2009 8:38:40 AM

Correction: Dixon averaged 5.4 ypc versus Ingram's 4.8 and to answer Steven Hanback, Dixon averaged 4 more carries per game over the season. Not a big difference. I'm not saying Ingram's a good back because he obviously is. I'm just saying I don't think his stats warrant being the Heisman trophy winner. His stats just don't show he was head and shoulders above other players at his position and Suh's do.

Posted by: SG | Dec 12, 2009 8:39:27 AM

you guys doggin' on suh are way off. you're right in that he didn't play dominant ball for a year, he actually did it for 2 years. the comedy isn't that you guys are being disparaging about other players to pump your own, it's that irony that you guys didn't notice suh for 2 years till the espn hype started. which only makes you bigger idiots than those you're calling idiots. i imagine if he'd played for bama or florida you'd have noticed. ingram is awesome too. he is absolutely deserving and it'll be nice to see bama get their first heisman. i haven't seen a player disprupt opposing teams game plans for as long a stretch as suh. it's actually pretty crazy. congrats to ingram, and it's nice to see people finally notice suh.

Posted by: jeff | Dec 12, 2009 8:40:24 AM

suh suh suh suh suh suh suh suh I am so sick of hearing husker fans talk about suh did it by him self, suh is the best, suh is this, suh is that, never heard of him until the texas game maybe the rest of his teammates just suck. Where I come from football is a team sport and no we do not push for one player to win one individual award and from what I here about suh he did not proform in alot of game not near as well as he did against texas so dont give me that bull about suh take the other 10 guys off the field and see how well he dose! Alabama is where they are because of team play not one individual although ingram is great TR is to but without team they would be nothing, nothing and they know that.

Posted by: Steven Daniel Hanback | Dec 12, 2009 8:40:25 AM

Back #1 : Attempts - 249 Yards - 1542 YPC - 6.2 TD's 15
Back #2 : Attempts - 257 Yards - 1391 YPC - 5.4 TD's 12

Back #1 : MARK INGRAM
Back #2 : Anthony Dixon

Enough Said. Almost a yard per carry more than Dixon...

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 8:41:53 AM

MCOY shud win and alb is not going to the nat t

Posted by: justin | Dec 12, 2009 8:42:49 AM

Phil... I like that idea...

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 8:43:15 AM

Yes, it was his only fumble, but down the stretch Ingram wasn't the catalyst in games vs Tenn (Cody), Auburn (G-Mac, T-Rich) and even Florida (Great game but G-Mac was MVP).Without him, they are fine because of the rest of the team is so talented and athletic. Stanford and Nebraska's supporting cast? Definitely not even close to the level of excellence as the Tide.

Posted by: CJF | Dec 12, 2009 8:44:17 AM

Why would people begin to bash others for the region they live in? First off, I reside in Mobile, AL. I have been all over the country.. Lived in Charlotte, NC -- Chicago, IL. -- Houston, TX -- and visited many more places that that.. East Coast to West Coast.. North and South.. When I see people make fun of the South as people would have done in the 20s, That TRULY shows how ignorant you are. Mobile, AL. is actually more desirable to me and my friends/family than any other place I've lived. I love the South, and it is no different than any other part of the country on an economically contributory level. There are just as many if not more educated people down here than in bigger cities.

In saying that. All of these Heisman candidates are in NY for a reason. They all contributed greatly to their teams success. Mark Ingram single handedly won 3 games for Alabama when the passing game wasn't working (Remember Mark Ingram is apart of a tandem backfield -- He see's a significant smaller amount of playing time than Gerhart). You could easily argue that Nick Saban SHOULD HAVE played him more knowing he was a candidate for such a high honor. I am just glad he has an opportunity. Whether he win's or not isn't going to change my opinion on him. He still has atleast one more solid year @ Alabama.

Suh & Gerhart are both phenomenal players. Suh, like Mel Kiper Jr. stated, is easily one of the best Defensive Lineman in 30+ years that he's seen. (Remember also that the reason he is #1 on his big board is NOT JUST based on his athletic ability, but the projected team's needs at #1 Pick.

Gerhart is nothing short of amazing. The fact that this young man can hold down 21 credit hours and achieve what he did at Stanford is remarkable. Unfortunately it seems that the lack of exposure a team like Stanford get's in football could lead to his demise in winning this trophy. I don't see much difference in the stats between Gerhart and Ingram.. The fact of the matter is, Ingram's team is in the NC game. Without Ingram they might not even be playing in the Sugar Bowl.

Between these 3 athletes, my completely unbiased opinion says that if this race finishes like it's being projected, than the guys here at Stiff Arm got it right. It's extremely close, but I like Mark Ingram.

**Note** While Derrick Thomas WAS a LB. He served as a present day "Jack" player, alternating between LB and DL

Posted by: Jordan | Dec 12, 2009 8:45:41 AM

Steven,
If you don't push for one player to win an individual award, then why are you on here posting? The Heisman is an INDIVIDUAL AWARD, not a team award. Can you honestly say Ingram has been a Heisman candidate since the beginning of the year? He didn't get on the Heisman radar until his big game agains South Carolina. If you take out that game (24 carries/246 yards), he averaged 108 yards per game and 5.8 ypc. So isn't he really getting consideration for one game as you claim Suh is?

Posted by: SG | Dec 12, 2009 8:48:28 AM

Last Nebraska RB to win the Heisman Mike Rozier went for 6.9 ypc better but not 8 ypc.... but ypc comparison see my previous post on that...

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 8:48:31 AM

wow!! u 'bama fans are morons, i think i am a lil more stupid after reading some of ur guys' comments. just the because the SEC has terrible offense, doesnt make their Defenses the best in the country.

Posted by: brett collins | Dec 12, 2009 8:49:47 AM

Brett: Join a real conference then come back to the discussion...

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 8:51:32 AM

You're right Beau, he does average almost a yard more per carry behind a better offensive line with a better quaterback and better receivers. How do explain that Dixon had better stats against like opponents?

Posted by: SG | Dec 12, 2009 8:52:22 AM

Well if Ingram wins then there is enough evidence to show the East Coast Bias.

Posted by: CJF | Dec 12, 2009 8:53:08 AM

PS Brett
Top 25 in Total Offense
Big 12 - 3 Teams
Sec - 3 Teams
Pac 10 - 4 Teams
Big East - 1 Team
ACC - 1 Team

Sec just as good as any other Big conference on offense.

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 8:56:50 AM

SG- Explain it with two things A) more carries B) larger leads for bama less reason for him to run. If you are taking into consideration a body of work of this year you cant exclude the games that you want to. A rushing performance of 246 against SC happened a rushing performance of 32 against auburn happened. Thats why they look at averages. And yes I like Dixon as a very good back.

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 8:59:32 AM

Lets be honest here. Every guy in New York right now is an amazing player. No Doubt. Im exited to see a defensive player in the runnings. Defensive players are always under rated. However Colt McCoy and Tebow when put up against a team they matched up with shut DOWN completely. Both of em. Not taking away from Suh cause I think he will make an amazing NFL player, and not taking away from Gerhart either, but Mark Ingram was an all around better player from start to finish. Not saying he didnt have some bad games everyone does. Ingram is a more impressive running back than Gerhart hands down. SEC is a tougher conference defensively. You put Gerhart in the SEC he would have ran for half those yards. Alot will dissagree however nearly every team in the SEC has an impressive defense. You cant argue with that. Any guy could win the award but come tomorrow Mark Ingram will be the one taking the trophy home.

Posted by: tyler | Dec 12, 2009 9:01:06 AM

Beau, Check your facts:
Mike Rozier's heisman year-275 carries, 2,148 yds, 7.8 ypc 29 TDs. Those are Heisman numbers.

Posted by: SG | Dec 12, 2009 9:01:43 AM

I dont beleive in the h..... I think that it brings a team down when they have someone in a running for an individual award we have got bigger fish to fry or should I say steaks and the reason I am on this site is because I like to see how far down the toilet this country has gone, all of u who think al is a bunch of southern hicks. Ingram from mich, greg from texas it takes all kinds.

Posted by: Steven Daniel Hanback | Dec 12, 2009 9:02:24 AM

Bama fans -- Congratulations on your Heisman victory and your impending demise in Pasadena. Ciao!

Posted by: Edition Shield | Dec 12, 2009 9:04:51 AM

Statement about Rozier was incorrect on my stand... You are correct but I will stand by my comparison of Ron Dayne, Ricky Williams, and Eddie George All Heisman Winners...

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 9:06:45 AM

Edition Shield, I hope that you dont bet the house on Texas winning the game... I would hate to have to drop you off at the homeless shelter after the game...

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 9:08:08 AM

husker fans for all of your hate a good ol southern boy from ALABAMA loves ya so dont be haten, be loving ALABAMA for giving yallllll somthing else to hate today

Posted by: Steven Daniel Hanback | Dec 12, 2009 9:08:42 AM

If the SEC Championship Game is any indiation of how Alabama will play and the Big 12 Championship is any indication of how Texas will play (Including the prior week vs. A&M), Alabama will destroy Texas

Posted by: Jordan | Dec 12, 2009 9:12:21 AM

Beau,
a)In those comparitive games he had only 15 more carries for 163 more yards.
b)If Bama was ahead, wouldn't that be all the more reason for him to carry the ball? Are you saying since they were ahead, they didn't run the ball? It would seem to me that would be the time to have him carry the ball, to preserve the lead and run the clock.
I brought up the comparison because there have been a lot of people saying you can't compare Gerhardt to Ingram because of the different conferences, which I agree. Here I'm comparing backs from the same conference with the same opponents and Ingram, in my opinion, doesn't stand out, which I think a Heisman winner should do.

Posted by: SG | Dec 12, 2009 9:13:22 AM

Nebraska had their opportunity to show all and they did, but they lost. And for Texas, if they show up to Pasadena looking the same way they did last weekend they will get embarassed. Dont believe me ask Tebow

Posted by: tyler | Dec 12, 2009 9:15:02 AM

SG,

When Bama got ahead they ran Trent Richardson and pulled their feature Back out of the game...

Posted by: Jordan | Dec 12, 2009 9:15:32 AM

Comments on Nebraska rushing Mike Rozier was Nebraska's all time leading rusher and that was like 1983 didnt every team rush back then????

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 9:16:03 AM

SG
Picking and choosing you take away Dixon's 252 v Kentucky he weighs in at a whopping 94.9 YPG...

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 9:19:26 AM

lyons,
I will start by saying youre and idiot homer! Suh is the most outstanding player in college football win or lose and this isnt just based off one game. You obviously didnt watch Suh play all season long or you would know why he is up for this award. McClain did have more tackles then Suh but he is a LINEBACKER YOU IDIOT. McClain is a LINEBACKER! LINEBACKER! You got it through your think skull yet. McClain's average as a linebacker is only 7.7 tackles per game as a LINEBACKER which ranks 91 in the nation. Suh, compared to any other DEFENSIVE TACKLE in the nation had quadruple the stats of another DEFENSIVE TACKLE. Come on man! Know when to compare apples to apple and not oranges to apples. Come on man! Idiot.

Posted by: obvious | Dec 12, 2009 9:23:18 AM

Ingram is a creation of ESPN. If Alabama wasn't in the national championship game, Ingram would not be mentioned as a Heisman finalist. He had 5 games in which he did not even rush for 100 yards. Not very Heisman like numbers to me. He is number 5 in the nation in total yards rushing (Gerhart is number 1). He has 15 td's to Gerharts 26. He isn't even in the top 10 in rushing yards per game(Gerhart is number 2). Explain to me how this is Heisman numbers! I'll explain it to you. ESPN has decided that Ingram should win. They push their agenda every night on sportscenter. They tell everyone that he is the best player in the nation and the voters fall in line. Ingram will win because that's what ESPN wants. It puts the Heisman winner in the national championship game. It makes for higher ratings. This award isn't given to the best player on the best team in the country. It's given to the best player in the country regardless of what team he is on.

Posted by: Steve | Dec 12, 2009 9:24:49 AM

The fact that teams doubled and even tripled teamed suh and he still put up those numbers is simply amazing. Lyons how many people double or triple team McClain?

Posted by: justin | Dec 12, 2009 9:25:52 AM

Steve, ESPN picked Gerhart to win.... What is Ingram in a subliminal message somewhere???

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 9:28:13 AM

Jordan,
Makes sense. Can you tell me why Richardson got so many carries this year? I understand he's good, but if Ingram's the best back in the nation, wouldn't you give him the ball more? If there's not much difference between the two, I wonder if Ingram's stats have a lot to do with the o-line. Again, I'm not saying Ingram's not good, I'm just comparing Ingram and Dixon based on numbers, especially against the same opponents and if it's true as some Bama fans are saying there's not much difference between Ingram and Richardson, then I question if Ingram is truly deserving of the Heisman.

Posted by: SG | Dec 12, 2009 9:28:34 AM

Justin the teams couldnt double team McClain had to double Cody...

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 9:29:04 AM

Just because a team has multiple great players, doesnt mean that the one that is seemingly the best really isnt that good, its just he plays on a team full of potential winners... not the bright star on teams that are terrible.

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 9:30:38 AM

obvious your mama needs to wash your mouth out boy

Posted by: Steven Daniel Hanback | Dec 12, 2009 9:31:55 AM

oh and McClain had ONLY 2 Interceptions as a LINEBACKER who is supposed to drop in coverage...oh SUH had one. Yeah and it was one of those batted passes he happened to be in the right spot at the right time, he jumped up to bat it at the line and plucked it out of the air at the line of scrimmage. You saying SUH should not be invited is the single dumbest thing I have ever heard and the second dumbest is you saying McClain is a better player. What a joke.

Posted by: obvious | Dec 12, 2009 9:31:58 AM

Tim, I suggest you check out www.rolltide.com and look at the official box scores. Ingram played the entire third quarter against Florida International and even scored in the third quarter against North Texas. Stats don't lie.

Posted by: Steve | Dec 12, 2009 9:34:13 AM

Beau,
Thanks for helping prove my point. Take out Ingram's best game (S Carolina) and Dixon's best game (Kentucky) and there still isn't much difference between the two. If Dixon's not in consideration, how can Ingram be? Show me an individual offensive stat that proves Ingram is so much better than Dixon.

Posted by: SG | Dec 12, 2009 9:34:45 AM

SG,
Only teams that are BAD have to run their best players all game. When your team is GOOD you give your other FRESHMAN 5 star back the football. Thus avoiding the possibility of injury. It is possible some teams i.e. Stanford, Texas, Florida could learn from that. Its always a good idea to keep a player healthy by giving them rest when you have three touchdown leads in the fourth quarter.

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 9:35:45 AM

I think any of you tools who think there is ONE player of the bunch who is hands-down, overwhelmingly, dominantly deserving of this award haven't been watching closely and certainly don't appreciate college football for its unpredictability. It's not the pros, folks, never has been, never will be. Who cares what the Heisman winners do in the pros? It's clearly not a predictor of future success.

It's not about who has already won the most awards, Randy. It's an award given at one point in time and 4 of the 5 invited have a good argument why it should be him. For once it's a close race and hopefully NOT a QB.

Personal bias among the blow-hard analysists and sports writers is alive and well, and expected. Unfortunately, they choose the award. But personally attacking the other candidates or schools, coaches, fans speaks volumes about the homer-ish character of so many posters here.

There really is no outstanding player this year, it all depends on the voters, many of whom only voted strategically so that a certain candidate would be hurt by their vote. PLEASE DON'T COME BACK HERE AFTER THE RESULTS TO INSULT THE WINNER - THEY ALL PLAYED THEIR BEST AND DID WHAT WAS EXPECTED OF THEM. If you must be a tool after the results come in - COME BACK AND BASH THE VOTERS!

And please don't come back here to bash the site in the event the winner is not Ingram. The method has worked so far, but this year is an anomaly and all Kari can do is work with the information he has.

Good luck to all candidates and thank you for your contributions to your team and for furthering the excitement of college football - there's nothing else like it.

Posted by: cmac | Dec 12, 2009 9:36:12 AM

obvious how old are you, you type like my 6 year old would but I wouldnt let talk to people like that

Posted by: Steven Daniel Hanback | Dec 12, 2009 9:36:22 AM

SG for your furthur thought and possibly nightmares for people in the future... Is it possible that a team can have multiple Heisman Trophy level talents at the same time. I say yes, look at USC, but that shouldnt take away from a great player.

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 9:37:25 AM

Will,
another idiot! Thomas was a linebacker and although his sack total was great he did not have the tackles to go with it for what a LINEBACKER should have. He also happened to be in the year Barry Sanders broke the single season rushing mark. I love how all these idiot Alabama fans think all the players are the best. McClain, Ingram, Cody, Thomas and the list goes on and on. WOW

Posted by: obvious | Dec 12, 2009 9:38:18 AM

No almost 15 ypg more does make a difference....

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 9:40:07 AM

6.2 YPC

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 9:40:31 AM

The stats below compare season totals for Alabama's starting 4 defensive
linemen, Florida's starting 4 defensive linemen, Texas' starting 4 defensive
linemen, and Big Suh:

Alabama Season Totals
98tkl - 23.5tfl - 9.5sk - 20qbh - 5pbu - 0int - 1ff - 3bk

Florida Season Totals
112tkl - 33tfl - 14sk - 48qbh - 5pbu - 0int - 1ff - 0bk

Texas Season Totals
116tkl - 25.5tfl - 15.5sk - 10qbh - 7pbu - 0int - 2ff - 0bk

Suh Season Totals
82tkl - 23tfl - 12sk - 24qbh - 10pbu - 1int - 1ff - 3bk


lyons - as you can see above, Ndamukong Suh had better statistics BY HIMSELF in 6 of the 8 categories above than Alabama's entire front 4, and he is only 1/2 a tackle behind them in tackles for loss.

He also equalled or exceeded Florida's and Texas' front 4 in 4 and 5 of the 8 categories, respectively. In total tackles, he had at least 70% of the big three's TEAM totals by himself.

Derrick Thomas was a truly amazing player, but he was competing against some ridiculous talent for the Heisman his senior year. You cannot compare him to Suh strickly on sacks, because DT was a linebacker who shot gaps on blitzes to get his sacks, while the tackles were tying up lineman to open those gaps for him. Therefore his sacks are to some degree dependent on the D linemen in front of him. Suh got his sacks by going over, around or through offensive linemen, sometimes driving them right back to the QB. Nobody helped him, and when teams like Baylor double and triple teamed him and then tried to roll/run away from him, the other Tackle had a career day, with 5 sacks of his own.

If this was a career award, and he was getting sentimental support for past seasons like Tebow and McCoy are, you would have to throw in all of his tackles, sacks, and 3 more INTs from last year, 2 of which he returned for TDs.

He earned every stat he got, and the same can be said to some degree for Toby Gerhart, who tore up the toughest competition in his conference while playing behind a line that is not nearly as good as Alabama's, and he never had a reall "off" game...Ingram had 3.

Ingram isn't even in the top 10 running backs in the country statistically, he just happens to be the starter for an undefeated team. Bama is probably still 11-2 or better without him. Without Suh or Gerhart, Nebraska and Stanford probably each lose at least 3-4 more games than they did. That is why they should be in New York, and indeed earned their invitations on merit, not because of hype and supporting casts.

Ingram winning will be a lot like Eddie George winning, except that Bama has actually won something. OSU never even won the Big 10 when Eddie George was there.

One more point to show how skewed the Outstanding Player award is to "the best skill player on an undefeated team": in the late '90s Troy Davis was the starting RB for Iowa State. He rushed for over 2000 yards and did not win the Heisman. The next season he did it again, and still did not win. I am pretty sure he was the first running back to ever rush for over 2000 yards an NOT win the Heisman and he did it twice. Problem was that he played for Iowa State, and even with all of his yards, they still didn't have a defense that could keep them in games.

The award is supposed to be for the best PLAYER, not the best team. They took a step in the right direction this year by waiting until after the conference championships to close the voting window. The next step is to wait until that Saturday night, after the last game ends, to open it, then give everyone about 3 days to vote. That way no one can vote before the last down has been played.

Personally I would like to see it happen after the bowls, but that is probably a bridge too far.

Posted by: brad | Dec 12, 2009 9:43:09 AM

o and just in case one might forget Ingram is a Soph....Most of the others Seniors... So what will happen in two years maybe nothing, but just think if he improves....

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 9:43:38 AM

Sean McDonough just said on the Ohio State/Butler broadcast that he voted for Ndamukong Suh. He is not even on your list as a voter.

Posted by: Sparty2QP | Dec 12, 2009 9:43:48 AM

Look, Texas, Huskers always on ABC..Bama on CBS..that simple..Suh not even close to Derrick Thomas..it's all about ratings..

Posted by: ESPNbias247 | Dec 12, 2009 9:45:08 AM

SG,
No you wouldnt because these Alabama fans know exactly what Saban is thinking and they know he doesnt pad stats. I guess Pelini leaves Suh out on the field and tell him to make the tackle this play so he can pad his stats. Alabama fans are the most outrageous I have ever seen. HOOK EM HORNS! Colt McCoy will light you up like a Christmas tree!

Posted by: obvious | Dec 12, 2009 9:47:16 AM

Very interested to see McCoy's final numbers. He is one finalist that some voters would be too embarrassed to publicly acknowledge that they voted for him.

Posted by: Dave | Dec 12, 2009 9:48:16 AM

Stiffarmtrophy.com says:

Dewey defeats Truman!!
Gore wins Florida!!
Suh to finish second or third!!

Posted by: paul | Dec 12, 2009 9:49:23 AM

same will happen that happened with Tebow, He will win as a sophomore and not win it again because people will realize is not as good as they thought. Then he will go on to lose his starting job to his backup and prove what we have all been saying.

Posted by: obvious | Dec 12, 2009 9:51:35 AM

Obvious, Obviously YOU cant pad D stats I dont think anyone would say that... If you are such a big defensive guy then you should know that Texas is in for a much bigger challenge with bama than with Nebraska.... Keep on hittin that pipe and dreaming of the day that Texas cleans the floor with Alabama...

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 9:52:22 AM

Beau,
You're opinion. To me, fifteen more ypg taking out their best games and .8 more ypc behind a better offensive line doesn't translate to one player being the Heisman finalist and one player not even being mentioned. Honestly, can you say that Dixon would not have put up similar numbers if he was playing behind Bama's offensive line and that Ingram would have the same numbers if he played for MSU? I think they would still be comparable and therefore Ingram is not much different than Dixon and is not the best choice for the Heisman. It really doesn't matter what we both think, it's already been decided without our input. Good luck versus the Horns.

Posted by: SG | Dec 12, 2009 9:52:55 AM

obvious if you are old enough you need to have a release if there is a woman that could stand you or man?

Posted by: Steven Daniel Hanback | Dec 12, 2009 9:53:57 AM

espn blah blah,
youre comparing apples to and orange. Once again, Thomas was a linebacker who stunted to make sacks. His season total tackle numbers are not good for a linebacker and a bit mediocre at best. Suh is a defensive tackle who plays a 2 gap responsibility, NOT SHOOT A GAP to make a sack.

Posted by: obvious | Dec 12, 2009 9:54:44 AM

Someone mentioned Nebraska's loss to Iowa St. as a reason why Suh shouldn't win...

my response: how many defenses could hold the opposing team to 9 points when their offense turned the ball over EIGHT times? Don't blame the defense for that loss. It was because of the defense that it wasn't a blowout.

Same with the Texas Tech loss. Sure we gave up 31 points, but at least 7 of those were results of a pick 6.

Posted by: china | Dec 12, 2009 9:56:05 AM

Someone mentioned Nebraska's loss to Iowa St. as a reason why Suh shouldn't win...

my response: how many defenses could hold the opposing team to 9 points when their offense turned the ball over EIGHT times? Don't blame the defense for that loss. It was because of the defense that it wasn't a blowout.

Same with the Texas Tech loss. Sure we gave up 31 points, but at least 7 of those were results of a pick 6.

Posted by: china | Dec 12, 2009 9:56:06 AM

It cant be opinion those are hard numbers you didnt ask me to make a case for Heisman you said make a case for Ingram v Dixon... So dont turn that around on me to try and get something good... You want another stat more Heisman related... Yards per touch... Ingram 6.68 Gerhart 5.87 Dixon 5.51 so that means everytime Ingram touches the ball he WILL get a Yard furthur than either of those two backs...

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 9:56:11 AM

And to show that I am not one sided check my posts before about Spiller Yards per Touch 9.54...

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 9:57:38 AM

Just because Ingram had Gerhart in yards per carry (6.2 to 5.6) he should win?
Well, Gerhart has 11 more TDs (26 leads nation to 15), averages 26 more yards per game (144.6 2nd in nation to 118 12th in nation),and I'll give you the most important one: Points Responsible For.

Toby Gerhart is the only RB in the top 40 (21st) in this category at 13.83 points per game. Ingram barely misses the top 100 at 8.38 points per game. Gerhart's worst game: 17 carries 82 yards vs Wake Forest. A game that if you actually watched, in which Stanford abandoned the run in the second half.

Posted by: CJF | Dec 12, 2009 9:58:50 AM

China, The only other defense that could contend with that is BAMA the #1 scoring defense ahead of the #2 Nebraska scoring D.... Texas might want to chew on that for a while....

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 10:00:03 AM

but look who stanford plays ND WAKE USC they all stink this year

Posted by: Steven Daniel Hanback | Dec 12, 2009 10:02:16 AM

It is an honor to be invited to NY, and be recognized as one of the top collegiate players. As much as I and many others would live to see Suh win, fact is that it will most likely go to Ingrahm. You font need a bronze statue to show that you are the best at your position, or the best of all players. It's a shame that even of you have the most first place votes you still can lose. I think of all of the "offensive" players, Gerhart is the most underrated and over looked. If you have seen him play, he is a hard nosed, never let down all out brick $&!?house. He reminds me of Tom Rathman. Who ever wins, so be it and let's see how they do in the NFL, that's where the true talent will show.

-Born, bred, corn fed! GO BIG RED!!

Posted by: Jeepnguy | Dec 12, 2009 10:02:33 AM

The only thing I can say about points per game is we won several games with ease and didnt need to score to win where as Stanford need every point possible... Once again a GOOD team can spread the ball around its what GOOD coahing does...

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 10:02:45 AM

CJF,
To help out I use YPC you use Points both guys should be there and we both have a case from one perspective or another... I mean come on how many guys are on here touting Colt McCoy or Tim Tebow today....

Posted by: Beau | Dec 12, 2009 10:05:13 AM

Just like the 1995 Heisman Trophy winner the award will be given to the person who doesn't deserve it. Tommie Frazier was the better player that year over Eddie George. Go Gators

Posted by: Tom | Dec 12, 2009 10:06:20 AM

Actually, LT played DE&LB in college. Also, I said defensive lineman, not just DT. Regardless of who won the award in what year, the fact is all of the guys I mentioned had better stats than Suh and didn't win. In most cases, they didn't even finish in the top 5. Plus, I left some others off like Tommy Harris, Randy White, etc. Now that I think about it, that's who Suh most closely compares to, Randy White. Strong and fast, but heavier. White won all the lineman awards, just like Suh. Bear Bryant said White was the best defensive player he'd seen since Lee Roy Jordan. White didn't even finish in the top 5.
My point is, by giving the award to Suh, you're saying he's the greatest DL ever since no other DL has come close to winning it. He's not. By giving the award to Ingram, Mccoy, Tebow, that just means they are one of many, not the greatest. And as for as Derrick Thomas, no he didn't play DL, but the man had 27 sacks in one year. That's more than 85 TEAMS had this year. And he didn't finish in the top 5 either. Let's just keep Suh in perspective here. He's a very good player and person and he deserves the recognition, but not the award.

Posted by: mark | Dec 12, 2009 10:08:13 AM

tom the only reason u say that is because bama and ingram whooped ur tails and u know he is going to win it

Posted by: Steven Daniel Hanback | Dec 12, 2009 10:09:10 AM

Good point. I did ask for stats. But you didn't answer my question regarding if Ingram and Dixon switched teams. I don't think there would be a drop off for either player. I just think Suh's a better choice because his stats are truly better than anyone else playing the position, where Ingram's are not.

Posted by: SG | Dec 12, 2009 10:09:17 AM


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