291 Ballots: Ingram 44.8%, Gerhart 40.5%, Suh 40.3%
We've got 14 more ballots reporting in, but not much change in the vote totals. Mark Ingram's lead is now 4.3% - slightly more than than it was; and Toby Gerhart and Ndamukong Suh are still in a dead heat.
We did some analysis this morning, trying to sort out "how close is too close to call?" The answer seems to be right around 4%.
So, we're going to keep tracking ballots throughout the day - and see if we can't get more clarity.
Here's the regional breakdown:
Kari Chisholm | December 11, 2009 | Comment on This Post (153 so far)
u guys should watch some of the clips on Suh. There are many plays that he tackles the running back up to TEN yards away from the line of scrimmage....when Cody or any other defensive tackle does that I want to see it and they should get some consideration too. If your position is to clog the line and you succeed along with tackling the running back on a wide pitch you have some serious talent
If Suh was at least 3rd place on the 18 ballets that left him off vs Ingram, he would be in first place. This is close. Might be closer than Jackson-Long or last year.
Chris hits the nail on the head.
His question: "Without the Big 12 Championship game has he really had that great a year?"
The answer: There is no way he would even be going to NYC.
This is funny.
Suh single game highs
Tackles-12 vs Kansas, 2008
Sacks-2.5 vs Kansas, 2008 (this doesn't count the Big 12 championship)
TFL 4 vs Kansas, 2008
Suh has 1 that is right one double digit tackle game this year
I am in not way saying he is not a great DT. However he really is getting votes of one big game. He sure did pick the right time to have career highs in TFL and Sacks.
Also I challenge you to find me any college DL that isn't asked to cover two gaps.
Those teams you listed as zero sacks...this is why, they are quick release teams. The way Suh is supposed to play in Nebraska's defense is a 2 gap responsibility and not a 'pin your ears back' approach. Hence the reason for the lack of sacks.
any other year Derrick Thomas SHOULD have won but he was in a year with Barry Sanders. Also, comparing Thomas to Suh cant be dont because Thomas was a hybrid LINEBACKER/DEFENSIVE END who is supposed to have way more tackles and sacks. Suh is the most dominate D lineman of ALL TIME
Mike- Suh is a great player, no question about it, but is he good enough to be the first truly, defensive player to win the award? That's my question. Your stats on the starting D-lines is a little misleading as well considering UA runs a pro-style "3-4" look meaning, not only do they only have three starting D-linemen, but that most of the sacks and other stats that you mention are going to belong to the pass rusher who is standing up and considered a LB. If you disagree with this, look at big man Cody's stats and where the likes of Kiper have him going in the draft.
I'm a Bama fan and I like Ingram and Gerhart for the award. Gerhart is a throw back player and you've got to love him for it. I think Ingram is by far a better running back, and would have destroyed all the stats that Gerhart supporters are stating had he not had the best freshman RB in Trent Richardson getting about 40% of the snaps in the back field.
That being said, the only that bothers me as an Alabama fan is that Mark Ingram a back who shares the backfield with another back might win the first HT from Bama and not players like Bart Starr, Joe Namath, Kenny Stabler, Richard Todd, Johnny Musso, Shaun Alexander, David Palmer, or if you want to mention outstanding defensive players for the award, Cornelious Bennett, Leroy Jordan, Derrick Thomas, etc. etc.
Roll Tide I hope its Ingram, but if it isnt I hope it's Gerhart!
FWIW, based on Mike's stats comparing Suh to the d-lines of other teams, and accounting for the objection that Alabama had so many more three-and-outs that the comparison is not valid, here are some numbers to consider.
Suh accounted for:
9.3% of his team's tackles
21.2% of his team's tackles for loss
28.6% of his team's sacks
12& of his teams's passes defended (BU + INT)
16.7% of his team's forced fumbles
50% of his team's blocked kicks
32.3% of his team's quarterback hurries
The Crimson Tide defensive line accounted for:
12.5% of their team's tackles
25.8% of their team's tackles for loss
30.6% of their team's sacks
5.7% of their team's passes defended
14.2% of their team's forced fumbles
75% of their team's blocked kicks
25.3% of their team's quarterback hurries
Considering we're comparing one man to an entire unit, I'd say his numbers hold up pretty well.
How many tackles did SUH have last year compared to this year....similar. I would have to say that is called CONSISTENCY, just another reason why SUH should and will win.
Consider this. Suh was credited with 4.5 sacks in the Big 12 championship game. If he had those kind of numbers in his 12 regular season game he would have had 54 sacks in the regular season. The actual count..... 7.5
For a player to win we should be able to take out the stats from their best game and still feel they should finish in the top 5.
Take out the Big 12 championship game and we just can't say that about Suh.
Consider this. Suh was credited with 7 tackles for loss in the Big 12 championship game. If he had those kind of numbers in his 12 regular season games he would have had 84 tackles for loss in the regular season. The actual count..... 16.
Oh, I understand...both are playing two-gap but Cody and Suh are different types of players. Cody's job is just to be unmovable and take anything that goes between the guard and center on one side away from the offense and allow the Will and Mike LB to fill the gap. In a 4-3, an interior linemen needs to be a little better at breaking the double and making a hurry on the QB because with four down the blitzing options are more limited than with 3 down...you need your four down guys to be four productive rushers. Alabama just needs a big guy who can require a double and make the multiples of blitzes from the 4 up men more deadly.
It's an apples and oranges comparison. Like comparing Ted Washington to Warren Sapp.
Without the Florida game has Ingram really had a 'GREAT' year? Dont think so. just look at the Auburn game. Florida's defense is hyped up way too much and when Ingram shredded that it gave him more hype then he deserves. Watch, Colt and Texas is going to pass all over that Alabama defense because they wont be able to get a pass rush on him. Mount Cody will just sit at the line of scrimmage where he always is, not doing anything and not making tackles.
@Bamabeater, that is why Alabama has Chapman and Dareus for passing situations. Dareus doesn't even start and he has 6.5 sacks.
Chris, if we took Ingram's 246 yards rushing against SC away and he was averaging a little more than 100 yards per game, would he still be deserving of Top 5 mention? If so, it would only because he is an offensive star on one of the best teams in the country, not because he's one of the most outstanding players in the country.
You are blind. Not all teams play a 2 gap system. There are different schemes different teams play. Some stunt to a gab where some there is a one gab responsibility. Also you said Cody is responsible for 2 gaps and thats why his stats are not that of SUH??? Looks to me he didnt do close to the job SUH did. WOW.
I forgot Nebraska has no backups on the D line. I am glad you told me Nebraska doesnt rotate any of their D linemen. Thanks for that. You are clueless if you think Alabama is the only team who rotates players in and out and brings in specific linemen to rush the passer. That is how good SUH is...dont you see he is fast enough to rush the QB and stop the run. That is why he is the best and should win the H-man.
Ingram best back of all time. Easy win and National title to go with it.
Bamabeater, thanks for your well taken point about Ingram's 3 touchdown performance in the SEC championship. He actually scored 15 touchdowns in the regular season, so he only averaged 1.25 per game. He scored 2 touchdowns in six games during the regular season and none in three of them. When looking at touchdowns this was his best game, but only one better than in six contests. He actually ran for less yardage than his season average and had that great play on the screen pass. Overall for Ingram, an above average game for him in the biggest game of the season so far in college football.
My point about Suh remains the same. He had a superb game. One can reasonably say that it was the best single game performance by an individual player in the 2009 college football season. However, one game does not make a season. The two outstanding measurable aspects of his game were sacks and tackles for loss. While he had a year deserving of his many defensive awards, he never had another regular season game, nor did he have an overall season that was even close to this one game performance. Fortunately for him it came against Texas in a Big 12 Campionship game that was the last game H------ voters saw before voting. The hype was incredible, as my previous posts stated, and pushed him into a trip to NYC with a decent chance to make history. We shall see.
and that one game is why he was got Nissan's H-man vote when he led the fans vote ALL SEASON LONG. Ingram wasnt even in the race for the fan vote by Nissan???? doesnt make any sense.
All the fan vote means is that internet losers like us wasted their times voting in some goofy poll.
The only group of voters that have any real "meaning" would seem to be the former winners, and I have no idea how they are voting.
Bamabeater, well if you are going to make it out like that our only way to press the pocket from the middle is with Cody then I think your school is open to similar slight. Does your rotation DT/DE have 6.5 sacks? I doubt it. In two years, Marcel Dareus will be on par with Suh to be quite honest. He's built just about the same: 300 lbs, strong enough to overpower guards and centers but quick enough to beat tackles.
Alabama has better rotational linemen than Nebraska has starting other than Suh. cry more.
What player was needed the most to insure the wins for their team. Seems to me the player with the most impact on the team deserves it the most. If a player is that worthy to a team, should that team be undefeated. That only leaves 2 teams that are undefeated which have a Heisman candidate in the race.
So with 300 ballots counted out of a population of 900, what is the expected error?
Ingram or Suh, Gerhart wins I will puke. Johny Rodgers will sell his Ballot vote in the a.m. guarantee he printed it off at the local public library.
Gerhart has had a great year, but one thing overlooked by those who haven't followed 'Bama closely this year is that there were seven games in which Mark Ingram had less than 20 carries. His heaviest workload came against the toughest competition. But when 'Bama had a big lead, Ingram's day would be over early, as early as the 2nd quarter. And big lead or not, he was sharing time with Trent Richardson. By way of contrast, there was only one game in which Gerhart carried the ball less than 20 times. So when you look at the total yardage and the touchdowns, yes, Gerhart had higher numbers. But when you look at what each player did when he had the ball, Ingram's work was more impressive, and came against better defenses.
I think I just had an epiphany for the Nebraska D-Line. No matter what the Pelini's said about what they want their DT/D-line to do this year, they ended up being something of the Linebackers of Nebraska's defense. Why? Because Nebraska faced so many spread offenses where the main sets were 5 wide receivers that they needed the extra DB's. So the D-Line took the jobs of the extra LBs. Suh had 82 tackles, Crick had 70+ tackles, both Allen and Turner had 50+ tackles. While there's some discussion about the best D-Line in the nation, Nebraska's was definitely the most productive.
first, people discussing who deserves the awards should just go find a yahoo message board, please. this site is about predicting the results based on disclosed votes, and it would be nice if people could visit this site and get some information about recently disclosed votes without having to read through a bunch of ignoramus's discussion of a defensive tackles stats.
people bashing suh need to get a life and stop looking at box scores to determine a defensive tackle's value. you obviously didn't watch suh at all this year so just pipe down.
suh was a heisman candidate before the big 12 game. then on national television he had a monster game with stats, but it wasn't much different from the way he controlled other games all year long.
people saying if you take ingram's one game away vs blah blah need to put a sock in it, too.
To me, the fact that Gerhart had more carries than Ingram isn't necessarily a bad thing. Stanford needed Gerhart in on every single play to have a chance to win. They didn't have the best defense in college football to stop opponents and dominate games, a luxury Ingram played with all year. When Ingram was taken out at half-time in games, it was because they didn't need him. Stanford always needed Gerhart. He carried the whole team on his back this year and provided huge plays every time he touched the ball. To me, Gerhart was so much more valuable to his team than Ingram. And Gerhart would never have taken himself out like Ingram did against Auburn. Against Notre Dame, Gerhart's arm was gashed and bleeding and he was completely gassed for air but he kept fighting with 100%.
Also something I don't understand is the huge amount of hype surrounding Suh. Sure, he's an unbelievable athlete, but is he really the best in the nation? I think that maybe all of the Nebraska supporters have finally found something to put all their support into after a couple years of mediocre football from what used to be a powerhouse program. It's kinda blown things out of proportion. I also think a lot of people would like to see a defensive player win the award again because of the allure for the underdog and under appreciated position. But lets be honest, nobody work harder, performed amazingly on a consistent basis, and meant more to his team this year than Gerhart.
"Let’s play 'blind stats.' Player #1 has 268 carries, 1538 yards, 5.74 ypc, and 20 total TDs. Player #2 has 249 carries, 1542 yards, 6.19 ypc, and 18 total TDs.
Player #1 is Ryan Williams. Player #2 is Mark Ingram."
Eric in KC-
I feel your pain my friend! I thought once a Husker, always a Husker. I could see if Rozier was saying the he was voting Toby or Ingram above Suh, but McCoy? I am NOT A MCCOY HATER! In fact, my son was born in 2006 and we named him after Colt because we were so impressed with what a cool kid he was. Suh beat McCoy. On the field McCoy and Suh played eachother. No other combo in this race can say that. Suh won. If Ingram wins-so be it. If Toby wins, congrats. McCoy got beat hands down by another canidate...sorry that takes him out.
Suh and Gerhart supporters just ignore the Bama fans and remember that they live in Alabama and you don't (hopefully). Once you do that you'll stop replying to the ignorant hicks.
Joe Friday I guess you missed Ingram's performance in the SEC championship game, LOL.
Joefriday I guess you missed Mark Ingram's performance in the SEC championship game against Tebow and company, lol.
What I find funny about the insistence of Bama fans to bring up Derrick Thomas in 1988 as a means to bash Sue is that in doing so they are helping make the case for Suh's candidacy.
I have been following the Huskers for 30+ years and have seen scores of tremendous Blackshirts come along, but none that I've seen dominate the way Suh has this year. NOT JUST the Texas game, but every game...though the UT game was probably the most impressive individual defensive performance I've ever seen in a college football game of that magnitude. Simply, Suh is a once-in-a-generation type player.
Was Thomas that kind of player back in 1988? Probably yes. He probably deserved to enjoy the same type of accolades that Suh is getting now. But if you have to go back 21 years to find a player to compare to Suh, then I think we all have our answer on who the most outstanding player in the game has been for 2009.
T you're the only one here who sounds ignorant.
Suh has one descent game that by the way Nebraska LOST (So much for dominating the game)and the truth is if Suh has backed off McCoy for a sec, there would have been no time on the clock and Nebraska would have won! Suh lost the game for Nebraska. On the other hand, as in many games Ingram took over and inspired Alabama to kick the Cr*P out of what EVERYBODY at the time said was the best team in the country, Florida. If Suh was so dominate and took over games,why did Nebraska lose four games. The rest of the team must suck. No wonder they think he stands out.
Tell me how anything I said wasn't the truth? Suh is the one that game Texas 1 second. He lost the game for you guys...Sounds like a gigantic moral victory Nebraska is looking for. Ingram will win and Suh can keep his seat warm. LOL By the way I am a michigan fan.
I could have run for 1500 yards behind Alabama's Offensive line. Texas, we're counting on you guys to knock some sense into these Alabama fans. Hook'em Horns!
Its time Alabama and ND took over college football again. Here they come. Alabama will only get stronger.
Why do so many of you keep demanding that Kari project a winner? He already has, geniuses. It's right under the heading "Our Projection." The numbers ARE his projection. And every update is a new projection on the outcome.
"Suh has one descent game that by the way Nebraska LOST (So much for dominating the game)and the truth is if Suh has backed off McCoy for a sec, there would have been no time on the clock and Nebraska would have won! Suh lost the game for Nebraska. On the other hand, as in many games Ingram took over and inspired Alabama to kick the Cr*P out of what EVERYBODY at the time said was the best team in the country, Florida. If Suh was so dominate and took over games,why did Nebraska lose four games. The rest of the team must suck. No wonder they think he stands out."
Nebraska lost 4 games because of a pispourous offense. Against Iowa State they had 8 turnovers including 5 inside the 10 yard line (might've even been the 5 yard line). Against Virginia Tech, Nebraska dominated the game on defense (and in the running game Helu had like 165 yards) but couldn't get the ball into the end zone and had to settle for field goals. A broken coverage on the last drive that ends up going for 81 yards saved the game for Va Tech. Then a kick out of bounds and a 19 yard pass with a 15 yard penalty brought Texas into field goal range.
Nothing in 3 of Nebraska's losses were the fault of Suh.
Ingram is weak!
"Of the offensive guys, he had the best game last week with 186 total yards and three TDs against Florida. But these numbers don’t say nation’s best player — he’s 12th nationally in rushing yards per game, 26th in scoring and 31st in all-purpose yards. He failed to reach 100 yards against Florida International, North Texas (91), Arkansas, Tennessee (99) and Auburn, teams that were a combined 26-34."
alrite first of go bama great season 13-0 what is nebraska 9-4 and who do they play, a bunch of nobodys thats why suh is doing so good put him in the sec and see how he does, he would have a chance, he is to overated. mccoy 3 int. in one game not so good your a good player but not that good. toby g. your a good running back but look who they play a bunch of nobodys put him in the sec and see how he does, not so great bet.they give him the ball if the score was 60-3 bama does do bc sabin plays smart and what is stantford 8-4 ha. but if u look at the stats and the stats of the teams that alabama plays u will see why Mark I. should win it. just to let u know im not haten its just the truth. but whatever goes down just remember u can vote on rewards but u cant vote on a national championship.
You point out that Ingram failed to have 100 yard games against Florida International, North Texas, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Auburn - but you fail to look into why.
**Against Florida International he had 10 carries. He had the flu that week, and Bama was up big, so the Tide coaches pulled him early.
**Against North Texas he had 91 yards on just 8 carries. Again, Bama was up big, so the Tide coaches pulled him.
**He had a poor game against Arkansas, but also didn't play in the second half because Bama was up big.
**He missed 100 yards against Tennessee by 1 yard.
**Auburn did a great job of defending him, but he also suffered a hip pointer early in the 3rd quarter that limited him the remainder of the game.
I've got absolutely no problem with either Suh or Gerhart winning the Trophy. Both guys are great players that had big games in their team's biggest games. Ingram is equally deserving for the same reason. Had the Tide coaching staff left him in during the second half of games against FIU, NT, and UTC, and given him the ball in an attempt to run up stats, he would likely be well past 1,800 yards.
He also might not have been healthy enough to finish the year as strongly as he did against Florida.
Bottom line, all three of these guys are deserving. I'm a Bama guy, so I hope Ingram wins. If it's Suh, then I'll be satisfied because he'll be the first strictly defensive guy to win it, and the first lineman to win it. If it's Gerhart, I'll be satisfied because the award will have gone to an outstanding player being recognized outside of one of the four or five best teams in the country - which doesn't happen often.
Congratulations on the award Mark ... only one more task left to go this season . Then you and the team can take a well earned rest. (till spring practice ;-) )
Congratulations on the award Mark ... only one more task left to go this season . Then you and the team can take a well earned rest. (till spring practice ;-) )
SUHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! for heisman. i am sorry colt, but you got torn down by suh. gehart cant do it. but maybe ingram. but i think that suh will sneak up on ingram. SUHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!$$$$$$$#@#%^&()(*&^%$@!@$@%%#@#%^@#%&%$&@%%#$%#!#%
LETS GO SUH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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