277 Ballots: Ingram lead holds, Gerhart & Suh in dead heat
We've now tracked down more ballots than ever before. Part of the reason? It's one of the closest races ever - and we may have a Trophy winner with one of the lowest vote totals ever. (More on that later.)
For now, the lead held by Mark Ingram is holding steady. But the race between Toby Gerhart and Ndamukong Suh for second-place is a dead heat. Colt McCoy is solidly entrenched in fourth place, and Tim Tebow remains pegged at fifth.
Ingram is at 44.2%, Gerhart at 40.6%, Suh at 40.3%, McCoy at 30.9%, and Tebow at 9.7%. We'll make our final projection Friday morning.
Here's the regional breakdown:
Kari Chisholm | December 10, 2009 | Comment on This Post (139 so far)
Ingram leading the projections by 3.6%... too close to call? Seems that way to me. If the average difference of 1.8% between projected and actual bites holds true it is possible for both Suh and Ingram to finish ahead of Ingram. Close race. I don't know how you're going to make a final projection, but I look forward to seeing if you can get 8 straight!!
That should say "votes" not "bites.". Stupid iPhone.
Oh sweet Christ.. Suh and Gerhart could finish ahead of Ingram. This is terrible. I'm sone posting until I get in a real computer. This mobile posting is killing me.
Great work on this site Kari. I've really enjoyed following the numbers you've been compiling. Roll Tide!
Just a thought: what about this selection bias in the sample? What if the missing votes -- the people who refuse to disclose (especially in the NE and Atlantic) -- are due to the fact that these voters are embarrassed do not want to reveal that they submitted their votes before the deadline. What if the missing votes disproportionately have Tebow and/or McCoy in the #1 and #2 spots? It might help to explain why the Tebow and McCoy were invited finalists.
This would through a major wrench into the regional projections and inflate the prediction variance - especially considering how small the NE and Atlantic samples are.
If this were the case, it could come down to who is on the #3 spot on these ballots, and these projections here would miss this entirely -- since the people in question are purposefully withholding their ballot information due to the embarrassment it would cause.
Alex, you're absolutely right. Selection bias is the biggest danger this projection faces. It would take a LOT of voters refusing to share their votes, however. Then again, we haven't faced a situation quite like this one - where the two season-long favorites had disastrous games in the final week. We shall see!
And, worse: the self-reporting voters have that you have here may have lied about how they voted, since they don't want to look like idiots for submitting their ballots before the conference championship games on the 5th.
There is a very high potential for a self-selection bias here and it's uncertain as to how it will affect the three front-runners.
I also am one that believes that the 1st place vote should hold more weight than 3pts. So far Ndamukong Suh is blowing the others away on first place votes on less ballots mind you(that's another pathetic story on these voters). He has more 1st place votes yet is projected to lose to a guy that didn't win the Doak Walker best RB trophy,and has more 2nd place votes than 1st(for himself). I'm still proud of these guys no matter teams and conferences, just think the system might be broken like the BCS.
It's been said that only 6% of the ballots were turned in before the deadline. We'll see.
6% still represents 55-56 voters (165-168 points possible). If they are not proportionally reflected in the samples here (due to the reasoning given), it could have a dramatic effect on the prediction, given how close this race is.
Actually, it's not a LOT of voters refusing to share their votes that is the problem: it is a disproportionate number of people with a certain type of vote (ie. without Tebow and/or McCoy in the #1/#2 spots) systematically under-reporting, and thereby skewing the sample. Obviously, projections are based upon the sample, which is now biased.
Sorry - that should have read "with Tebow and/or McCoy ... under-reporting".
you have more to worry abotu than selection bias. it seems that the only problem you ever had making an acurate prediction was a result of votes dealing with the NE candidates IE you underestimated larry johnsons support the year he was up for the heisman. are you concerned about the votes coming in from the same region this year?
Hmm ... if this hypothesis is true, then I suspect that the projections here will miss the Tebow, McCoy, and Gerhart numbers low (Gerhart looked great in the season-ending game against Notre Dame, Ingram most definitely did not against Auburn) and over-estimate Ndomukong Suh's vote total.
Sad. Ndomukong Suh deserves better.
BTW: before anyone tries to slam me as a "homer" -- I am not affiliated, in any way, with any of the schools the top five candidates play for. For me, Ndomukong Suh is simply "the most outstanding player in college football" that I've had the pleasure to see this year.
The sample has been biased in the past and been reasonably accurate. Who knows whether biases specific to this year would greatly affect the projection negatively. His theory that many NE votes will come from the Friday sports pages in that region is a good assumption which - if true - will likely help clear up the NE mystery in the projections thus far. It's looking like Kari is going to clear 300 ballots and it would take having a severe shortage in one region to likely hurt the validity of the projection. It's close enough though that it may just come down to a few votes here or there across the nation that we don't know about.
I think I'm starting to feel safe to say that Colt and Tim are out of it. I don't get the feeling that Suh is going to be on enough ballots nationwide to win it. So it's really down to Gerhart and Ingram...and whoever the NE gets behind might decide it.
Hehe...mike 1 is transparent. DUDE! I can see everything...cover that shizit up!!
"I also am one that believes that the 1st place vote should hold more weight than 3pts. "
Because that would obviously help your guy...YAWN...boring...
The fact of the matter is 1st place already holds half the godd... points to begin with so why even vote for anyone else if you would do it your idiotic way...oh snap, I answered that first...
"So far Ndamukong Suh is blowing the others away on first place votes on less ballots mind you(that's another pathetic story on these voters)."
It probably has something to do with most voters had no idea who this person was until the "somewhat Big" 12 "make the victim team feel better so I'll call it a " Championship game. 2 out of 3 people have enough sense not to vote for a defensive lineman for the Heisman.
Derrick Thomas of Alabama and KC Chiefs fame completely blows this guy out of the water. He had more SACKS than Suh had tackles for loss. Guess what position DT finished in the Heisman balloting? 10th. If Suh wins this it would be a disgrace.
"He has more 1st place votes yet is projected to lose to a guy that didn't win the Doak Walker best RB trophy,and has more 2nd place votes than 1st(for himself)."
I'm sure this was put in to keep unknowable, ill informed fans like yourself from screwing it up for everyone else.
Impression of a football fan that would actually cheer for Stanford:
"Hmm, vote Gerhardt. Later I'll need to think of some BS way to justify this."
"Lets see...other guys don't matter but I did see this guy several times this year since they actually show good teams on TV across the nation..Mark Ingram second. LOL LOL!!!!1 no way this guy wins. No one has heard of Mark Ingram!!! Hahahahaha, not like his dad played in the NFL. Who is this Mack Sabian fellow that coaches here, he sounds familiar."
"I'm still proud of these guys no matter teams and conferences, just think the system might be broken like the BCS."
Well good for you. Direct jump to stage 5 in the 5 stages of grief..acceptance. Congratulations. Go see a movie Saturday night. Enjoy the evening...man I sure wish I wasn't stuck at home watching a player from my team winning a trophy. Sure is going to be a crappy saturday.
Did you see what Suh did against Mizzou? I've been addicted to college football for years. In all honesty, this is the only time that I've EVER had to stop and take a look at what an INTERIOR lineman was up to.
THE ONLY REASON SUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUH WONT WIN THE HEISMAN IS BECAUSE VOTERS ARE NOT GOING TO PUT HIS NAME ON THE BALLOT BECAUSE HE IS A DEFENSIVE PLAYER. SO GO HEAD INGRAM ENJOY YOUR HEISMAN EVEN THOUGH YOU WONT DESERVE IT BECAUSE YOU WONT RECIEVE THE MOST 1ST PLACE VOTES@!
WELL WE KNOW THAT MARK INGRAM IS THE TRUE HEISMAN WINNER NO MATTER WHAT THE REASON BEING IS BECAUSE WE ALL KNOW THE SEC IS THE HARDEST CONFERENCE TO COME AND TO DO WHAT HE DID IN THE SEC IT DOSEN'T GET ANY BETTER TO GIVE EVERYBODY A LITTLE STATS HERE ON JUST HOW GOOD HE IS NOW NOTE HE IS ONLY A SOPHMORE SO CHECK THIS OUT FOR HIS CAREER HE IS 392 ATTEMPTS FOR 2270 YRD. SO YOU TELL ME. WHAT HAS T.G. DONE, FOR HIM TO BE A SENIOR AND HE IS JUST NOW IN THE RUNNING FOR HEISMAN WHERE WAS T.G. LAST YEAR. COME ON PEOPLE JUST CAUSE YOU HAVE ONE GOOD SEASON DOSEN'T MEAN YOU DESERVE THE HEISMAN COME ON PEOPLE WE KNOW WHO THE TRU HEISMAN IS AND THAT IS MARK INGRAM.
Obviously some posters here seem to forget something: This is an award that is (supposedly) based only on what the player has done this year, otherwise Tebow or McCoy would be the favorite.
Additionally, Suh, Gerhart, and Ingram are all excellent football players, and all are quite deserving of the Heisman. To suggest otherwise would be failing to recognize outstanding play, and that is quite a shame.
not a gerhart fan but the heisman IS about 1 good season you SEC noob
And, additionally, Phylomatic, your incredibly pathetic bias towards Ingram and offensive players is unfortunate. How is it impossible that a defensive player be the best player in CFB this year? Suh has had unreal stats for a defensive tackle (remember, Derrick Thomas was a linebacker, and his job is to make the tackle/sack, not the D-lines.) That's why it is so impressive what Suh has done. He has more sacks than Alabama's entire D-line combined! That is sensational!
THE BEST RUNNING BACK ISNT EVEN BEING INVITED TO NYC FOR THE HEISMAN TROPHY CJSPILLER WAS LEFT OFF THE FINALISTS!
I agree that it was unbelievably wrong that Spiller was not a finalist. In my opinion, he should have replaced Tebow on the finalist list.
Hmm ... writing in all-caps just makes those posts so much easier to identify, and ignore.
too bad Saban is scared to play Nebraska after that 50-10 beatdown he received from the Huskers in 1995 at Michigan State. Suh and Crick would've destroyed and dominated yet another offensive line.
I don't get the "scared to play" reference. Has Saban refused to play NU since he got to LSU or Bama? Just curious -- it would be a get out-of-conference showdown.
BTW: Saban wouldn't have control over the scheduling. That would be in the hands of the conference and the AD for out-of-conference.
And, "HEISMANWINNERSSUCKINTHENFL" -- who gives a flying F about the NFL. This is COLLEGE football -- all that really matters.
This is what happens when the national media - looking at you ESPN - shoehorns the Heisman race candidates before the season: when they don't meet expectations or get hurt, you leave the whole damn country clueless. This is what this whole Heisman race reeks of "cluelessness."
Does a tailback with 1542 rushing yards, 322 receiving yards, and 18 total touchdowns really deserve the award when you look at the historical standards for tailback performance? No, probably not but we are grasping for anyone we can grab a hold onto on a winner. He had several clutch games that saved his team when their QB struggled around mid-season and performed superbly in almost every nationally televised games except Auburn the week before the end of the regular season.
Does a tailback with 1,736 rushing yards, 149 receiving yards, and 26 total touchdowns really deserve the award when you consider that nearly all winners on a non-contender have won it by having a truly historically significant season? No, probably not but he powered his team to victory against a highly ranked Oregon team and two names the national media notices on their down years (USC and Notre Dame).
Then there is Suh. Like other Bama fans have pointed out, Derrick Thomas had 27 sacks in 1998 and only finished 10th in the Heisman ballot. The Heisman winner really just depends on the zeitgiest of the moment. Derrick Thomas just so happened to have one of the best defensive performances in the last 25-30 years the same season Barry Sanders set the standard for single-season rushing performance. The only solely defensive player to win the Heisman perhaps only won because of the ESPN hype machine and a general feeling that Peyton Manning was not a big game quarterback. Charles Woodson had "big game moments" while Peyton had big numbers but a big 0-4 career record as a starter against Florida, the undenied class of the SEC that decade.
Woodson winning the Heisman was one of the biggest jokes of all-time for the award, in my opinion. His year wasn't even statistically outstanding, he just had "moments" and the media wanted to send a message. At least Suh has undeniable statistical numbers to back up his candidacy and if there was any year for the Heisman to go unconventional it may be this year because the whole race has basically boiled down to "well dang, one of you quarterbacks were suppose to be all impressive and junk...now who do we vote for?"
it would appear that it'll come down to Ingram and Gerhart...Suh in 3rd, McCoy in 4th, Tebow in 5th.
What hurt Suh's chances are the people that voted early (before the Big 12 Championship Game) who didn't have Suh even in the top 3 on their ballot, therefore he'll lack total pts overall, but will probably still end up with the most 1st place votes in the end, but not enough 2nd or 3rd's to give him the big prize. If they'd mandate everyone to wait till after the Championship Games have been played, then the outcome would be favoring Suh a whole lot more.
Still, it's pretty amazing that Suh wasn't even being mentioned worth a darn earlier in the season about the Heisman and it would appear he'll end up garnering the most 1st place tallies...it would be interesting to know who voted a couple weeks ago and how their ballots looked! Lucky to see Suh on hardly any of them I would think...that'll end up costing him the Heisman (even if it's only 6% or so of the total votes) in my opinion.
Stop bringing up Derrick Thomas back in 1988 without bringing up the other Heisman candidates. Barry Sanders had the greatest season by a Running Back in college that year. 2600+ yards rushing is absolutely no small feat, so it's not like Thomas got robbed (though I don't know where I can find the rest of the finalists). If he played this year and got those numbers, then sure he'd get the award. But the fact is he isn't playing this year and played in a day and age that was even more scewed to offensive skill positions.
Looking at this year there has been no one that has absolutely stood out as being that above and beyond person that some Heisman Trophy winners have been. Ingram had a good game in the SEC championship, but he wasn't even the best player on his team in the game (the QB was). Gerhart has done all he's done this year pretty quietly. Suh showed up and played his best games during the times where Nebraska had a National audience. McCoy played his worst games against the best defenses he faced this year, and Tebow just had an overall average year.
While Ingram is a deserving Heisman candidate, he's just a part of a team that would probably be in the same position they are in if he wasn't even playing. He isn't even the best back in the SEC (Anthony Dixon is). Really he'd be just another throw away Heisman winner if it wasn't for the fact that he'd be the first Alabama player to win the trophy.
Really this has been a terrible year for the Heisman with no player dominating his position outside of Suh.
I think i read somewhere phylomatic that Derrick Thomas stayed at a Holiday Inn Express that same year he had 48 sacks.
phylomatic = al bundy ......28 sacks = 4 touchdowns for polk highschool in one game.
well, Zack...that's why I brought up Barry Sanders in my reply. jeez...
RGW I wrote part of my post, then went on a search of the 1988 finalists, got side tracked with some other things that I like following, then came back to the post. It just so happened that by the time I posted it, it was after you posted yours.
About your 1.8% average deviation...I noticed that you are simply doing an arithmetic mean of the signed deviation from the actual result. You should be taking the absolute value of the deviation at the very least. This pushes your average deviation to 2.7%.
A more accurate method would be to do the square root of the normalized summed squares of the errors, in which case the uncertainty jumps to over 3.3%!
Your site is fun, but a little misleading. Both Gerhart and Suh should be very much in it!
(How about that all you haters, an intelligent Nebraskan!)
It will come down to the ballots that are holding safe. I cannot see Tebooh wooh' or Opie making up any ground even if the NE and ATL groups voted early. Ingram will win the trophy and it will be close for 2nd. I am in agreement with any of the top three. My only arguement is with the guys posting that the SEC is so powerful. Time will tell. Alabama opens up as a mere 5 point favorite over Texas. For those of you that dont see the trap, the line is ALWAYS set to push gamblers in a direction ALWAYS. Trust me on this. Alabama looks like a good bet right? I personally hope the Tide whips up on Opie and his whiner coach, but 5 points? TRAP.
To all those trying to look at the error of the site. Take out the first year from the error and maybe the second year. They merely counted the votes the first year and regressed from there. They changed the model after to reflect regions. So error is less than 3.3%. But the error is certainly still close enough to make a difference. I just dont think you need to get your hopes up. With over 1/4 votes in (almost 1/3) I think the projections should reflect pretty closely what will happen. 2nd and 3rd may switch but I believe, at this point, that 1st will stay where he is.
The one thing is I could care less if MI wins it. He is only a sophmore and if he repeats his performance next year he will win then. Also we our in the national title game and that means a lot more to MI, Bama, and it's fans. The Heisman is a nice award but the NC game is greater.
In regards to the number of 1st place votes, that is more of a joke than anything. Suh fans complain about this or that, or that early voters didn't see the last game. The real problem here is that most of the 1st place votes came only because of that last game. They didn't see him play all season. He had 25% of all his sack in his 13th game. I am not saying he is a bad player, but it shows you again the lack of validity this award had because people will cast a vote based on one game. If he was a great player ,and I believe he is, he should have been in contention all season and mentioned but he was not just like MI was not until about midway through the season. The Heisman should go to the player he showed up every game and help to carry his team. Even the one low stat game MI had helped our passing game out enough to win the game. They shut down the run but it opened it up for the QB and WR.
Look MI did what he needed to in the best conference angainst most of the best defenses in the country. The other part people seem to forget is he is a sophmore starting for his first season ever. He did not have four seasons to learn the game or mature like the other candidates did it. He was 2nd string last year and came up this year like a 3 year starter. His recognition came because not his total stats but because he gained over 60% of his yards after contact.
If Suh was in the SEC I believe he would be just as dominant as he was in the Big-12, and would love to have had him playing at UA. He is a great player and probably the most dominating player going into the draft. Again if MI doesn't win I do not care because the NC game means more to me. He has atleast one more year to win the Heisman, maybe two.
I would suggest that the folks that have such great criticism and insight into statistics develop their own prognostication site. Thanks, Kari for your hard work, and just in case it isn't obvious, good luck to Mark Ingram, and ROLL TIDE! (yelling intentional:) ).
I agree with that. It seems to be more unhappy fans that criticize, but yet this site seems to be right on with who wins.
Also remember alot of great players go through every season unnoticed. The Heisman voters seem to only follow a few teams and players. I do not think there will ever be a system in place that can actually evaulate all the players to truly determine the best player in cfb.
I could care less too although I dont believe he will win it next year because Richardson will play more. Richardson is one of the most college ready kids I have ever seen. He is like 18 and stiff arming and moving through UF defense. I am more concerned about NCG but I would like to finally be able to say that we have had a heisman and in the other I would prefer to stick with Bear's tradition. What did he say something along the lines of he didnt care about an individual trophy all he cared about was that NC at the end.
I know only about 6% of the voters sent in their ballots before the conference championship games, but with such a close race I wonder if that will make a big difference in the result, especially for Suh who put on that amazing display of domination. Seriously, with four out of the top five candidates playing in one of the championship games, how can they vote so early?!
Alex Yamachoochi (LOL), stick a sock in it bud. The Cornhuskers had a hard time beating Troy University ( the 3rd best team in the state of Alabama) a couple of years ago. What makes you think they are worthy of being in the same stadium as the Crimson Tide? The Cornshuckers need to just concentrate on winning their conference and maybe the Tide will eventually bump into them in a bowl game one day.
So tired of hearing "Ingram doesn't have the most 1st place votes"...Do you forget Tebow had the most 1st place votes last year and didn't win as well? Should Bradford give his trophy back?
Suh is the best D lineman I've seen since Reggie White. White didn't even finish in the top 5 of Heisman voting. As for Derrick Thomas, Barry Sanders had the greatest year ever for a running back and deserved the award. But Thomas also didn't finish in the top 5 despite NCAA record 27 sacks that still stands. Gehart had a great season but did so against weak defenses(except Arizona and Ariz.St). Ingram played against 5 of the top 25 defenses. He averaged 156 yds agaist those 5. plus he did so with an anemic passing attack. The end.
The early votes will hurt both Suh and Ingram and will help Gerhart IMO, but who knows how many of the votes that SAT.com has were the early ones?
great work on this site! its fun following the numbers. looks to be a close one! as long as Suh, Ingram, or Gerhart wins I won't be disappointed. If McCoy or Tebow win it will be because the voters are in large part uninformed.
What does a game three years ago have anything to do with today? How easily you forget that your mighty tide was scrambling just to find a bowl a few years ago.
TODD: A couple of years ago NE was coached by a walking disaster. And no, NE couldn't beat anyone. This is a different coach, different coaching scheme and two more years of experience for guys like Suh.
Be glad he's a senior : )
Personally, I think that throughout the history of the Stiff Arm Trophy, a great number of players have won because their teams had season-wide recognition.
As far as Suh goes (in the style of Jack Black in "Kung Fu Panda")
I love 'Kong Suuuuuuuuuuuhhhhhhhhhh!
He's picked up four awards already (Outland, Lombardi, Nagurski, Bednarik).
No he probably won't win the Stiff-arm, but his skills combined with a number of rotten NFL teams taking a look at him, it should make for an interesting draft year.
Ok, since we have people who cant get off of figures, or stats here is a stat for you and it comes right from the Roll Tide website: Just a side note--Please dont spout numbers and quote anemic phrases when you dont know what you are talking about ie MARK:
Alabamas season stats:
If your passing was anemic than your running game was also anemic!
Also ATT YRDS AVG
Mark Ingram 221 1429 6.5
T. Richardson 115 562 4.9
Roy Upchurch 39 233 6.0
Terry Grant 40 166 4.2
Demetrius Goode 16 108 6.8
These stats tell me that while Mark had great numbers so did the rest of his team who rushed behind an offensive line that dominated the defenses. I could see if the rest of the depth chart sputttered but for cryin out loud the 5th string running back averaged 6.8 yards a carry which happens to be better than MARK INGRAM!
Stanford lost to Wake...
Gerhart vs Wake 17 attempts 82yds
CJ Spiller vs Wake 9 attempts 106yds
And no I'm not saying that Gerhart is not deserving; I'm just saying that all of these stat comparisons are apples and oranges.
CJ vs USCe 9 attempts 18yds
Ingram vs USCe 24 attempts 246yds
Ok - Ive seen it mentioned more than once that Anthony Dixon is the best rb in the SEC. As far as RBs are concerned, the only category that he leads the conference in is rushing yd per game. So this statement is based on what? It's just a statement made with no merit whatsoever just to try and discredit another player's accomplishments. Saying Dixon is the best back in the SEC is like saying Potts is the best QB and Beal is the best DL in the Big 12. Oh, and James is the best RB in the Pac 10.... Sure, it is all a matter of opinion. But when there is nothing to back it up (statistics, shared opinion of "experts", etc), then you really show that you have no idea what you are talking about. And yes, when two players at the same position play in the SAME conference, comparing statistics is much easier than say Gerhart vs Ingram. So Ingram vs Dixon is easy. Or at least it should be to even the average person...
Its kind of funny how people try to find objective reasons to justify their subjective rooting for one candidate and discredit all the objective reasoning of the others. I think all of the top three candidates wouldve earned the H------.
Im just rooting for Gerhart. Maybe because at Stanford he actually goes to class sometimes.;)
Questions: How come that Ingram at his age is still a sophomore without being red-shirted? Im born the same month and a junior now.
Jason you are retarded... Demetrius Goode only came in at the end of 3 blow-out non-conferance games vs. FIU, North Texas, and Chattanooga. Meanwhile, Mark Ingram was usually warming the bench after the second quarter instead of padding his stats like some other teams (cough Tebow).
New vote at article bottom you don't have.
Actually Jason, I was talking about the 5 games against top 25 defenses. In those games. Alabama averaged 169 yds passing and that is skewed by the Florida game(239). Also, the majority of Ingrams(and for that matter, Richardson) yards were after first contact. The Tide does have a very good offensive line, but so did every RB who ever won the Heisman or they wouldn't have run for so many yards. You think Gerhart's totals would be anywhere near what they are if his line was bad? Also, as you illustrate, Ingram split time at RB. Gerhart didn't. With all that said, Gerhart is certainly worthy of the Heisman if he wins. In fact, I would love to see a defensive player win the award at least once in a blue moon. But if White, Thomas and Suh can't win, I'm not holding my breath for the day.
It's a great reward to win this award. But here is a small list of the past, I can only think of 3 maybe 4 that have done anything in the NFL. T. Smith 06, R. Bush 05, M. Leinart 04, J. White 03, C. Palmer 02, E. Crouch 01, C. Weinke 00, R, Dayne 99, R. Williams 98, C. Woodson 97, D Wuerffel 96, E. George 95, R. Salaam 94, C. Ward 93, G. Torrett 92, D. Howard 91, and T. Detmer 90. Palmer is the one that stands out the most. Some of these guy in recent winners are bench warmers. Go SUH I hope that you win it so they can all eat crow. And to the comment by Zach. " Suh only showed up when they were in front of a national audience" You didn't see every game thats clear. Just think of how many more sacks that man would have had if he wasn't double and triple teamed every game. I am a OU fan, I watched every game Suh played in cause he is just that DAMN good. We need a True defensive heisman winner. Just food for thought K. Moore BSU 3325 yrd, 64.8% comp, 8.48 ypa, 39 TD pass, 1 Rush TD, 3 INT, and a passer rating of 167.35. Seems to me that this guy should be in the TOP 5
No disrespect to Suh or Gerhart. Gerhart's a dozer but lacks cutting ability and vision. If you watched him play even once you saw holes he simply couldn't get to. Suh is a beast in a conference void of defense. In the SEC he would be a standout for sure but his job is to beat a slow offensive lineman on every plan and that's it. No thinking, nothing special just speed and power...maybe he's the best ATHLETE of the bunch...who knows. I really like Toby but how any of you PAC guys can argue him when he plays in a conference without defense just amazes me. See Kiffin's comments on how much different the SEC front 7 is than the PAC front 7 and how much more difficult it is to run the football in our conference. I for one am sick and tired of hearing about the Auburn game. He was clearly not himself and for one game or of 13 he didn't shine. Tell me one winner who didn't have one disappointing game, below their standard, and still won. I watched every second of every game and had MI played every second like Gerhart he easily has 18-1900 yards rushing and 2100 from scrimmage....with 75% coming after contact. If you're tired of hearing about the SEC then somebody else needs to win a Championship....other than SC it ain't happened. Texas is the only team to do it lately and that's 5 years ago....and it won't be this year. Their #1 ranked run defense will be exposed because the B12 is not a run conference. Ingram will be vindicated, either way, when he rushes for 150+ and hoists the MVP trophy.
Oh yea,,,,in regards to him not winning the Doak, he's not a senior and if you think people don't vote for upper classmen when things are close you're sadly mistaken. The coaches thought enough of him to vote him All-American without checking with any of you morons. For the record, not one voter from the Jackson Clarion, the Tennessean or one of our other rival cities even voted Ingram in the top three for obvious childish reasons. It's sad that we act like that as adults in what is the best country in the world. Had he garned the appropriate votes from those three papers what would it look like? I guarantee you neither SUH nor Gerhardt lost votes because their rivals voted the other way on purpose....what rivals? You kiddin' me? It's different down here boys.........
let's say in the early vote 1 is mccoy 2 is gerhart and 3 is tebow
but lets also say suh gets second in mid atl, 2nd in NE, 2nd in west, wins MW, and 3rd in formers
so mccoy gains 150, gerhart 100, tebow 50, and suh 150.
tebow still fifth, mccoy still fourth, but just a small break toward suh in these regions means we are right back to a three way tie, since the early votes should break for gerhart.
PHYLOMATIC - YOU ARE AN IDIOT!!!
Suh is a great player, but I cannot remember a player having as many great performances like Mark Ingram this year. In the South Carolina game he carried the ball every down on Alabama's final 7 play 69 yard drive to secure the win. He was so exausted after the touchdown he could barely walk back to the sidelines. In the SEC championship game after Florida cut Alabama's lead 12-10 on the first play from scrimmage he took a screen pass 69 yards to the Florida 3 to completely crush any momentum the gators gained. He had more yards after first contact than any running back in the country. He played against more top 10 defenses then any back in the country this year. Great job Mark Ingram and Roll Tide!
TODD NICHOLAS - YOU ARE AN IDIOT!!!
Your success in past years is fantastic. But even considering your success rate, I think this year has to be a toss-up among the top 3. My math on the last four years of your results shows an error rate between the predicted percentage of the first three finishers and the actual percentage that far exceeds the differences currently between Ingram, Gerhart and Suh. So let the race continue to NYC.
DIfference between projected (p) and actual (a) finish
yr____ 1st place finisher____ 2d place finisher____ 3rd place finisher
'08___ 1.3% higher p than a__ 4.6% lower p than a__ 1.5% lower p than a
'07___ 3.1% higher___________ 7.1% lower___________ 4.1% lower
'06___ 2.4% higher___________ 3.2% lower___________ 4.4% lower
'05___ 3.8% higher___________ 0.4% lower___________ 3.6% lower
Suh reality check.
Suh had a Big 12 Championship that was nowhere near his norm. Thus, he receives an inordinate amount of last minute hype.
Consider this. Suh was credited with 4.5 sacks in the championship game. If he had those kind of numbers in his 12 regular season game he would have had 54 sacks in the regular season. The actual count..... 7.5
Think about it this way. If Ingram had a similar improvement in the SEC Championship he would have rushed for 857 yards. That's right, 857 yards in one game against Florida to match the level of Suh's performance improvement.
Is the total annual stat line all anyone looks at? Geeeez.
As I've said multiple times now, if Suh wins it, I'll tip my hat and say "Congrats young man" because he is an absolute animal and a real class act off the field.
I think Gerhart is a class act as well. But I don't think he could carry Ingram's jock. He looks like he's kinda slow, but I admit he does have a nose for the endzone and he runs with toughness. The defenses he shredded would've had trouble tackling in the annual Victoria's Secret lingerie bowl.
Yep, he had more yards and more TD's than Ingram. He also had a lot more carries, red zone carries, and a lot weaker competition on the defensive side of the ball. Ingram would sometimes get us to the 5, and get a breather by a fresh back...and he never complained. Ingram also had well over 50% of his yards after contact.
If your going to show stats make sure they are updated you dumbass. Ingram has 15
Ingram has 1542, t-rich has 642. Just make sure you get the stats from all the games. It makes your arguement stronger
OK, here some more stats go. lol SEC was putrid to say the least agaist the run and you wonder why the yards were easy to get! If Ingram could get his yardage against his own defense I for one would be impressed but he got his yardage against statistically the one of the worst conferences against the run!
SEC Top 5
1 Alabama 2
2 Florida 13
3 Georgia 40
4 LSU 44
5 South Carolina 46
Big 12 Top 5
1 Texas 1
2 Oklahoma St. 6
3 Oklahoma 7
4 Nebraska 11
5 Missouri 12
Now you want to compare Top 5 in Rushing offenses? Here it goes
1 Mississippi St. 9
2 Florida 10
3 Alabama 12
4 Auburn 13
5 Kentucky 21
1 Oklahoma 24
2 Texas A&M 25
3 Kansas St. 35
4 Iowa St. 36
5 Texas 55
What we learn from this is absolutely nothing! Why becuase the bottom line is it is all subjective based on how we interpret the information. I can say that I think the SEC was all offense and no defense, and the SEC can say the Big 12 had no offense and there for their defenses shined. Bottom line is this Total offense VS total defense here is the results:
Total Offense SEC
1 Florida 12
2 Arkansas 14
3 Auburn 21
4 Alabama 35
5 Mississippi 42
AVG 24.8 Nationally
Total offense Big 12
1 Texas 5
2 Texas Tech 7
3 Texas 20
4 Kansas 26
5 Oklahoma 28
AVG 17.2 Nationally
Total Defense SEC
1 Alabama 2
2 Florida 4
3 South Carolina 15
4 Tennessee 16
5 Mississippi 24
AVG 9.4 Nationally
Total Defense Big 12
1 Texas 3
2 Oklahoma 7
3 Nebraska 9
4 Oklahoma St. 23
5 Kansas St. 29
AVG 8 Nationally
lance - you say "no disrespect", but then go on to say this about Suh: "In the SEC he would be a standout for sure but his job is to beat a slow offensive lineman on every plan and that's it. No thinking, nothing special just speed and power.."
Sounds a little disrespectful to me... and at the same time you are calling the SEC offensive linemen slow. I guess even you don't think the SEC is very good. Thanks for clearing it up for the rest of us, like we didn't already know.
Sorry last stat should be 14.2 average Nationally
Thanks for the stats Jason, and you're right about one thing, the stats usually have a reciprocal effect on the other side of the argument.
That said, the SEC has a disproportionate number of teams that hang their hat on establishing the run. You could probably make the entirely opposite argument for these conferences on pass O vs. pass D.
If Ingram shreds the Texas D for 180 and 2 TD's, are you going to admit that he's a super talent?
Tunnel vision much? We forgot, your team is the greatest and everything about them is the greatest and nothing else matters.
At 9.7% projected, why did Tebow even get invited to New York? He is well behind McCoy in the projection and much closer to Spiller, et.al below him. I guess they just wanted to award him with another free trip. Hope it helps make him forget the SEC Championship Game. Roll Tide and Mark Ingram for Heisman!
With all the great tradition and great players at the University of Alabama over the last century the university has never had a player finish in the top 2 in the Heisman voting. No jersey has ever been retired because Bama has never stressed individual awards. However, Mark Ingram is the single season rushing leading in Bama history. He has never played the entire game of any game this season. Look at his yards per rush, 6.2 what is Gerharts? When Alabama needed that all important drive to finish off an opponent they always went back to Ingram. It is hard to convince me that a player on a 4 or 5 loss team is worthy of Heisman consideration. Only at Notre Dame has that been acceptable. Go back and look and you will see that to be true.
I find it interesting that ESPN, during their award show last night, had their own projections on the Hypeman trophy and had McCoy winning, with Ingram, Gerhart and Tebow behind him. No mention of Suh. Even though Suh won the Outland, Lombardi, Nagurski and Bednarik awards so far this season. Sounds like those awards are pretty impressive. Another funny comment was the fact that talking head Mel Kiper Jr indicated that the Hypeman is a WR/RB/QB award and not a defensive player award. Seems to me someone needs to tell Mel that the award goes to the Most Outstanding College Player of the Year for that year, not the best WR/RB/QB on the highest rated team that might win a MNC.
Before assuming that Suh was used only as a "bullrush" type D-lineman, did you even watch any Husker game besides the Big XII championship this year? My guess is no, because that statement is ridiculous.
Bo and Carl Pelini recognized what an outstanding player they had on their hands, one with not only athleticism, but intellect as well. Suh was dropped back into coverage much of the time against mobile QB's, because he is fast enough to follow them out of the pocket, and smart enough to make the right decision to go for the tackle, defended a receiver, or go for a pass block. And thanks to playing Virgina Tech, and playing in the Big XII, that's alot of downs where Suh doesn't even attempt to power through to the QB. He, as a D-lineman, also has a game changing interception, and 9 passes batted down.
The fact you discuss his abilities s "nothing special, just speed and power" is completely disrespectful.
Derrick Thomas again? Very intelligent comparing a DE/LB hybrid player to a pure tackle. Thats like comparing a RB to a QB. I guess Gerhart should win because he actually threw a TD pass this year...what about you ingram? SUH should win the thing hands down!
Its because of the Sec Bias! They have the best offenses, Defenses, Special teams, Tailgate spots, girls, fans, cheerleaders and everyone else sucks. Happens every year.
joefriday ... if sacks were what set Suh apart, you would have a great point, and obviously he is benefiting from playing one of his best games statistically on the biggest stage of his career.
But why boil everything down to sacks? Suh led his team all season long in tackles, and in solo tackles, and he's second on the team in passes defended. How many other DT's could you say that about?
ESPN is a joke. To not even mention Suh in their Heisman projection talk is a head scratcher. To pick McCoy as the winner just shows their ignorance.
Zack your pretty dum if you think dixon is the best running back in the sec look who got the most over 20 yard runs and yards after being hit and his only 19 this is his second year all of them are SENIOR yjou dipstick
SECfan1 states that "When Alabama needed that all important drive to finish off an opponent they always went back to Ingram."
The facts show something different.
Consider two of Alabama's closer games.
Against Tennessee look at their final two drives. Alabama'a second to last drive resulted in the game winning points, a field goal. This was a 7 play drive including the field goal. Ingram did have a carry on the first play. The drive chart does not show his name again. However, it does show a Richardson rush on the fourth play and an Upchurch reception on the sixth play. These players are reserve backs behind Ingram.
Ingram was in for the final Alabama drive. He fumbled the ball and Tennessee recovered at the Alabama 43. Tennessee then scored a touchdown, recovered an onside kick, but missed a game winning field goal as time expired. Not a stellar Ingram finish.
Against Auburn in the final regular season game, Ingram rushed for 30 yards on 16 carries. Alabama scored the go-ahead touchdown on a beautiful 15 play 80 yard drive, on what was their final possession of the game. Ingram's contribution was a 9 yard reception on the 5th play and a one yard run on the 11th play. Richardson had runs on plays number 1,7,9,13, and 14 and a reception on play 12. Finally, the drive was capped with a touchdown pass to Upchurch on the 15th and final play.
Ingram was not a finisher in these two big, close games.
I used to like reading the posts from everyone but now its so horrid.
Here is a point you all need to keep in mind.
Everyone here has a bias and every reporter has a bias. Stop arguing over who should win it doesnt matter! The voting is done and we will know the winner officially tomorrow.
You guys all need to chill. You should all be glad that the 3 candidates that werent preseason candidates are in the lead. Why not focus on the BS preseason rankings in Heisman and for the teams also. USC is ranked top 10 every year & Ohio St. is ranked top 10 every year. I dont think any preseason talk should even come out because it instantly changes the whole system.
All 3 players are great players (this year is a down year) and I wish them all the luck in the world. Quit knocking on any of the three finalists. You dont have a vote bashing a guy that has done something special may make you feel all good inside but its lame. They are all finalist for a reason AND none were on anyones watchlist!! They played into being talked about!! ALL OF THEM!! This would be different if one of them was a preseason favorite but STFU about the players not being good.
Why dont you spend your energy finding the remaining votes instead of spitting hate. If you find more you'll do a better job at discovering if your candidate wins instead of talking trash.
Last thing, good job Stanford on all the emails. Your school really has shown support for your candidate. I have heard multiple voters say that they received hundreds of emails from you guys.
While I have a bias to Ingram (the Tide and the SEC), I certainly would not be disappointed to see Suh get up there. Send a message to the NCAA that defense also matters in an era of "highfalutin" offenses.
For whatever reason, Gerhart doesn't impress me all that much. Statistically or otherwise. The conference and competition are lacking. (Don't give me the top run defense arguments, total yardage numbers do not truly impart a real look at the caliber of defense)
To me, it's Suh or Ingram.
Suh = Most Outstanding Player in the country, defense or otherwise, but played on a mediocre team.
Ingram = Most Outstanding Offensive Player in the country, and plays on an undefeated team.
Traditionally Ingram wins this.
The Heisman winner does not need to be great in every game, but he should at least be good in every game. Tebow was not (several games). Spiller was not (South Carolina). McCoy was not (Oklahoma and Nebraska). Ingram was not (Auburn). I am sure there are a thousand reasons why each of those players had at least one game where they crapped the bed, but regardless, it is indisputable each had a least one bad game. (And, no, the games where Ingram only played one half do not count as bad games. If he went 60 yards on 6 carries against a team like North Texas that, to me, counts as a good game.)
It is much tougher to judge a defensive player, but I do not believe Suh had what could be called a bad game. Nor did Gerhart. Thus, for Heisman purposes, it should come down to those two. This does not mean Ingam or Spiller or McCoy, etc. is not a better pro prospect than Suh or Gerhart, or had better careers, etc. But, the Heisman is a one year award. And, this year, it seems those two had the best years, and the most consistent years. What really hurts Ingram was that Auburn was a horrible rush defense all year (ranked 80th; as a comparison, most people laugh off Gerhart's performance against Notre Dame, yet Notre Dame's rush defense was ranked 90th, pretty comparable to Auburn), and he only went 16 carries for 30 yards (for comparison, two RBs on Kentucky this year went for over 100 yds each against Auburn, with only 19 and 12 carries, respectively).
And, as far as team success goes, just as an FYI, the last SEC player to win the Heisman was Tebow the year his team was 8-4 at the time of the award, and thelast SEC RB to win the award was Bo Jackson the year Auburn was 7-4 at the time of the award.
Fact is, Ingram, Suh and Gerhart are all deserving. I think Ingram gets it, I just can't remember a Heisman winner, in his Heisman winning season, having that one horrible game.
Suh played a team with NO offense and the best defense in the country! Given the amount of snaps the defense played on the field to the amount of yards and points allowed speak for themselves. Nebraska has the best defense in the nation but suffered from a horrific offense! Team is still ranked.
Yall are all homers, just face everyone knocks another guy for saying something bad about the guy he wants. Why don't you all just admit it and this would be more enjoyable. Do be honest none of us really know how the vote will go... besides the voters are just as biased as you guys. Let just face it the best player in college football is Lagarette Blount... no one else can run up and give Boise St. a hit like he did
I really didn't mean any disrespect but this thing is so full of disrespect for Mark Ingram that you can all kiss my ass. Most of you couldn't talk X's and O's with my daughter. Because a guy knows how to drop into a zone blitz he's "doing something"?
I watch a lot of football and nobody else I've seen all year can combine the power, speed, vision, durability and production Mark Ingram has.
There have been other Defensive players dominate just like Suh and not one of them ever won.....what changed this year? Yes, I've watched Nebraska play more than one game....for the record.
Make sure you tune in on Friday after the game and we'll talk about how many yards Ingram rams up the ass of your mighty Big 12 team. Nobody in your freaking conference even runs anything close to a run-oriented offense. I'm betting you'll see that your defense isn't that special after you see ours on the field. You'll realize what Suh did to Texas wasn't worthy of all this press.
Another Suh reality check.
Suh had a Big 12 Championship that was nowhere near his norm. Thus, he receives an inordinate amount of last minute hype. His sack numbers were discussed in a previous post.
Consider this. Suh was credited with 7 tackles for loss in the championship game. If he had those kind of numbers in his 12 regular season games he would have had 84 tackles for loss in the regular season. The actual count..... 16.
Think about it this way. If Ingram had a similar improvement in the SEC Championship he would have rushed for 626 yards. That's right, 626 yards in one game against Florida to match the level of Suh's performance improvement.
I know some people might say that sacks and tackles for loss are not a true measure of a defensive lineman. Well they are two important measures and in this case they are the basis for all this wild hype that is going on over Suh's one game performance. I would discuss some of the other things that get people excited about a defensive player's performance, such as forced fumbles, fumble recoveries, interceptions, blocks or broken up passes. However, since Suh had none in this game it would be a little difficult. Thus, we are left with this one time mania over sacks and tackles for loss that are the basis for this wild hysteria over Suh.
My point - the Suh hype is just that.
Why is gerhart playing against Notre Dame keep getting brought up??????? I guess we should of played UT Chattanooga last this year to boost ingrams last game stats. I'm glad the notre dame/auburn games get compared but nobody says anything about what ingram did to florida.
Let the PEOPLE/FANS vote!Not just the media and former winners
Jason, you're an idiot! Your stats mean absolutely nothing! They were compiled in two different leagues! Leagues who play entirely different styles of football. All you have to do is check last year and you will find an even larger advantage than there is this year. And lookey what happened! Your highest scoring team in the history of college football Okiahoma, with its supposedly elite defense, got shut down and run over by Florida. Your co-south champion Texas Tech got annhialated by our mid-level Ole Miss! And you know damn well that Texas is not playing as good as they were last year! The SEC has put it on all the other conferences already this year by everybody except Vandy. That's not saying that Texas can't beat Bama. But for anybody from the Big 12 to try and use comparative stats to prove the Big 12 is better than the SEC - well, that's just completely retarded! RTR! Hey SAT.com, where's the update? Yesterday you had one at 10:20am!
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