208 Ballots: Ingram leads, Gerhart second.
We've now tracked down 208 ballots, containing a total of 578 votes. That's a sample of 22.4% of the entire H------ Trophy electorate. That's more votes than we've had in four previous projections. Of course, this vote is still looking very close.
Mark Ingram now leads Toby Gerhart by just over a single percentage point. Ingram is at 42.2%. Gerhart is at 40.9%. We're not quite confident in making a projection between the two of them. Either could still win this thing.
However, Ndamukong Suh is now at 37.8% and Colt McCoy is now at 31.6%. We're confident in making the relatively limited (and obvious) statement that neither of those two gentlemen will be the winner of the Trophy. (And, of course, we noted earlier that Tim Tebow is a lock for fifth place - holding stead at 11.3%.) We'll reserve judgment on exactly where Suh and McCoy will land in the order of finish.
Here's a regional breakdown.
Suh is the greatest. Think about this. He actually played twelve regular season games before the Big Twelve Championship. And this was against probably the most toughest schedule in the country. In two of those games he was able to get more than one sack. Think about it. A defensive player gets more than one sack in two games over the course of the whole season. That is off the charts. And the details are even better. He got 1.5 sacks against Kansas State and 1.5 against Arkansas State. That's right, Arkansas STATE. Big time. I bet those voters all across the country didn't realize how spectacular this guy really is. No telling how many more first place votes he could get if they really looked at his whole season and didn't just focus on one game. Suh #1.
Nebraska SOS is 48 cmon get real.
OK, maybe not THE toughest schedule, but you have to admit the rest of my point is indisputable. Suh #1
Wow, you, much like the uninformed voters or the reason, Suh or no DT will EVER win this award. I am actually shocked he got invited. If coaches voted on this award. Suh would have won it unanimously. Ingram and Gerhart had OL to open up holes for them. McColt and Tebow needed an OL to give them time to throw and/or open up holes for them to run. Ingram and Gerhart needed a competent QB to take pressure off them. Suh had little help. In fact Suh's job is to eat up blockers so that linebackers can run in space, and let the LB make the tackle. Suh, not only did that job, he also shed the blocks, and make the tackle himself. Sometimes his DB's gave him a little more time to get to the QB. Look at these amazing stats. One writer said that he "struggled" for 4 games, only getting 21 tackles, 2.5 sacks, and 3 TFL. To put that in perspective, the CBSsports.com All-American 1st teamer, Jared Odrick had 41 tackles, 10 TFL, and 6 sacks in the entire season.
Suh has tackle numbers envious of linebackers, sack numbers envious of defensive rush ends, pass break ups that challange Big 12 leading DB, and he has an INTERCEPTION.
I'm an SEC guy, but I've been saying for years that the PAC-10 is the 2nd best conference in America and it ain't even close. The Big-XII, since Nebraska fell off, has been "runnable" for whoever is the winner of the Red River Rivalry in mid-October.
I think USC's dominance of the PAC-10 has prevented people from seeing the depth of the conference. USC really dominated a weaker PAC-10 early in their run and their continued success never shook that reputation. With USC falling back to the rest of the pack in the conference allowed people to see that the other guys could compete but USC was at a different level. Now if USC gets back to their post next year - which I kinda expect - it might not change that perception of the conference's depth. Do I think the conference as a whole is comparable to the SEC as a whole over a long view (the decade)? Probably not, but it compares very well to nearly every other conference in the nation. Basically, I see the PAC-10 as a conference that has one team that is truly on the level of the top programs in the nation - Alabama, Florida, Oklahoma, Texas - and a collect of second-tier teams that compare very well to nearly every other conference's second-tier.
I think when these final vots come out the South West & North East projections From SAT are gonna look alot different.
Has the thought occured to anyone that Alabama has TWO spectacular running backs? Think Ingram might have had more carries and more yards if they didn't also have Trent Ricardson who could start for anyone in the country? One of the ESPN guys did make a great point...Saban didn't pad Ingram's numbers...he played to win the games and used all the talent he had which meant a lot of time splitting the carries between Ingram and Richardson.
Stanford's backup rb jeremy stewart got hurt 3 games in so i dont think a lack of spreading the ball around can be held against gerhart. also, the pac 10 has jahvid best, jaquizz rodgers, gerhart, lamichael james and joe mcKnight (all 1000 yard rushers) so i think its ridiculous to say the pac 10 doesnt rush the ball. And finally all the people who are using Gerhart's extra touches to say he padded his stats are plain wrong. Gerhart can keep going and going and Harbaugh was willing to lean on Gerhart for those extra touches when Nick saban felt the best thing for his team was to give the ball to someone else. yes ingram averaged .6 more ypc, but gerhart had 11 more tds and 200 more yards in one less game. saying ingram would've had better stats if he had more carries is like saying tebow would've had better stats if he had to carry his team like he did two years ago. its not about what a player can do, its about what he did this year and this year gerhart had 11 more tds than ingram
ALEX, UNTIL YOU GET ALL YOUR FACTS RIGHT PLEASE DON'T POST ANYMORE! BEST HAD 867 YARDS. GO MARK INGRAM AND ROLL TIDE ROLL.
Lets see if I can get my question answered this time or see if it is avoided again with an answer of "He is only a sophmore".
IF HE WAS IN THE DRAFT, which I know he isn't going to be, "Would he be the number one pick?"
"Pac10 and Big 10 pad their schedule with many more very bad teams than the SEC - they are just in the same conference."
I would like to clear the misconception that the Pac-10 has two "very bad Pac-10 teams." I challenge anybody to name TWO (yes, one is easy). Here is the bottom of the Pac-10 and its resume. Please tell me how any team (except WSU) is "very bad."
5. USC (5-4) -- Beat Ohio St. at the Horseshoe.
6. California (5-4) -- beat two #17 ranked teams in a row in November.
7. Washington (4-5) -- (SEC ALERT) Statistically dominated LSU in a 31-23 loss. This team didn't win a Pac-10 game last year but still challenged LSU in its opener.
8. UCLA (3-6) -- (SEC ALERT) Beat Tennessee AWAY, then lost its first five conference games.
9. Arizona State (2-7) -- (SEC ALERT) Nearly beat Georgia AWAY (lost 20-17). They lost their last six conference games.
10. Washington State (0-9) -- Just plain sucks.
Notice the SEC only agreed to play the #7, #8, and #9 teams. After the scares (and the loss), I'm guessing they aren't keen to even play those anymore.
To all involved, both conferences are great, and I think we can agree the differences aren't huge. Congrats to whichever RB wins the trophy.
Please! Toby had 1736 yards, 311 carries and 10 receptions in 12 games while Mark had 1542 yards, 249 carries and 30 receptions in 13 games. I guess Ingram can't get 184 more yards with 62 carries, since he averages 6.2 yards a carry. LOL
Look at recieving yards as well. Ingram and Toby had almost the same total yardage, both played against good run defenses and both represent their schools well. There is a reason the voting is so close. The only difference is Ingram put up his numbers for a team playing for a National Title. Ingram wins by a slim margin.
Danno: I understand your bias towards the Pac-10...probably the same as my bias towards the SEC. But when you use terms like "statistically stingier", then you are no better than the ESPN folks you complain about. No disrespect to Toby (I think he's had a great year and definitely put the numbers up on the field), but the Pac-10 only has 1 team (Arizona St.) that ranks in the top 20 in total defense. The SEC has 4 in the top 20...and Bama played them all. You also complain that the Pac-10 plays all others in their conference...so 9 "statistically stingier games", huh? Well, in the SEC, we played 8 others in our league(remember, 4 of them in the top 20 defenses)...and in one non-conference game, we played Virgina Tech (also in the top 20 in defense). So, I'd have to say that I would put those 9 games on a little higher scale than your 9...statistically speaking.
How many votes do you feel like you need to get in each region to make an accurate guess on the outcome for that particular region? Seems like you're info is really light in a couple of the regions.
I've asked this before and I didn't get a response, but does anyone have an idea of why the formers are leaning so heavy to McCoy?
Because they feel bad for him. He has lost the last two Heisman awards to people who are younger than he is... which is probably saying something. They're basing their vote on his entire career, not just this current season... Which is not what this award is intended for.
Hash the stats however you want....remember that Alabama was number two to Florida in everything...stats didnt decided that game and they won't decide the Heisman.
Couple of quick stats; The SEC is sending 10 out of 12 teams to a bowl game, and Gerhart had 311 carries to Ingram's 249. True, Bama has never had a Heisman winner, but they have also never been know to pad any onne player's statistics.
The Pac-10 has always been known as the "sissy-conference", they lost to crappy teams,Alabama is undefeated, and Mark Ingram is a SOPHMORE going up against a Senior...Ingram and his team are class acts, they play hard, they are gentlemen and Ingram is a beast on the field...can you only imgaine what his stats will look like when he is a senior? He truly deserves the Heisman..without a doubt the SEC is the ..maybe thats why the Pac-10 refuses to play us because they will be shut down by the #1 defense in the Nation. Offense sells tickets...defense wins games~
I know how to solve the Gerhardt vs Ingram theory... Let Alabama play Stanford... then Gerhardt can face a REAL defense, in a REAL Conference.
I guarantee, Ingram would rip right through Stanford.. 100+ YAC.
When everyone else sucks in your conference, its easy to have good defensive stats.. when you play in the SEC, you play real football.
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