208 Ballots: Ingram leads, Gerhart second.

We've now tracked down 208 ballots, containing a total of 578 votes. That's a sample of 22.4% of the entire H------ Trophy electorate. That's more votes than we've had in four previous projections. Of course, this vote is still looking very close.

Mark Ingram now leads Toby Gerhart by just over a single percentage point. Ingram is at 42.2%. Gerhart is at 40.9%. We're not quite confident in making a projection between the two of them. Either could still win this thing.

However, Ndamukong Suh is now at 37.8% and Colt McCoy is now at 31.6%. We're confident in making the relatively limited (and obvious) statement that neither of those two gentlemen will be the winner of the Trophy. (And, of course, we noted earlier that Tim Tebow is a lock for fifth place - holding stead at 11.3%.) We'll reserve judgment on exactly where Suh and McCoy will land in the order of finish.

Here's a regional breakdown.

name	Fan	Formers	West	SW	MidW	South	Mid-Atl	NE	Unknown
M Ingram	1	6	23	55	50	56	31	29	20
T Gerhart	0	6	46	48	55	49	25	18	15
N Suh	3	5	20	108	56	47	11	18	13
C McCoy	0	20	22	57	26	28	19	17	11
T Tebow	0	4	6	6	4	24	13	6	5

Kari Chisholm | December 8, 2009 | Comment on This Post (121 so far)
Permalink: 208 Ballots: Ingram leads, Gerhart second.

Comments

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First of all, I want to applaud stiffarmtrophy.com for ignoring all the noise and rhetoric and presenting not only "just the facts", but also statistically weighting/extrapolating on the available information in ways that makes their prognostication credible. I am so tired of all the so called "experts" on ESPN and every other channel and web site generally passing off their opinions - e.g. projecting McCoy as the winner (without any statistical data to back it up) as serious analysis or insight as to who is going win. Or, in the case of many of the aforementioned voters in the east, saying something approximating "Gerhart joined the race too late and wasn't a factor all season like the other candidates". Huh? A more self-fulfilling prophecy I've not heard, insofar as (other than what a player does on the field) these doofs are the ones who determine whether he's "in the race" for the rest of the lemmings. It's as if the fact that they didn't pay attention for most of the season is someone else's fault. The fact is, a graph of Gerhart's game-by-game performance shows him to be by far the most consistent performer amongst the top five candidates (or least the four on the offensive side of the line of scrimmage) against (on average) statistically stingier run defenses - let alone the fact that unlike the candidates' schools in the SEC and Big 12, the Pac-10 schools actually play ALL of their conference's other schools as part of their schedule (making a 13th game unnecessary AND unavailable for padding statistics). Gerhart’s production led all RB candidates throughout the season (against at the time top-25 ranked teams: Washington, Arizona, Oregon, USC and California, as well as Notre Dame) - not just at the end of the season. Despite the fact the Pac-10 is sending 7 out of its 10 teams to bowl games, playing against each and every one of them, Gerhart consistently put up “video game-like” numbers. That these facts have escaped so many voters' notice is nothing short of profound laziness. Too bad so many of the voters can't give their vote the serious research and contemplation this responsibility/privilege deserves.

For all the people who insist the SEC is “by far the best conference in the country” (and generally offer nothing more than a glittering generality like “intense competition” or “defensive team speed” as evidence), I have a question: If a team in the SEC starts out the season ranked in the top three or five in the nation (not coincidentally, a huge majority of the voters that but them there – coaches and journalists in the respective polls – reside east of the Mississippi), has only other SEC teams – not even ALL of them mind you – as substantive competition on their schedule (and pad the rest of it with the likes of UL-Lafayette, Charleston Southern, Troy St., Florida International and Tennessee-Chattanooga to name a few), and then ends the season in the Top 5, by what possible means do we know the SEC is the best conference? The fact that one team (or two, because again, they don’t all play each other) goes undefeated for a season is hardly evidence of that team’s conference being the best. It's quite the contrary. It’s rare that a Pac-10 school goes undefeated for the very reason that they ARE competitive with one another, play against top schools from other BCS conferences, as well as Notre Dame (4 Pac-10s in 2009) BYU, TCU and Boise State. To wit: Boise State claims that they approached each and every top SEC school with a proposal for a “home and home” series and was turned down. They also claim to have said in response “okay fine, we’ll just travel to your school for one game, and again were turned down. Why is that?

Posted by: Danno | Dec 8, 2009 11:18:02 PM

Come on, NorthEast, pull it together and get on the Toby Train.

Posted by: Chris | Dec 8, 2009 11:18:25 PM

Posted by: Danno | Dec 8, 2009 11:20:26 PM

keep it under four lines or nobody wastes time reading a freaking novel that a geek looked up

Posted by: mike t | Dec 8, 2009 11:24:24 PM

Uhh, danno, maybe we (SEC fans) say that b/c it's fact. Sagarin has the SEC as the toughest conference.....ahem.....AGAIN. And, if my math isn't off, the SEC has taken home 3 of the last 4 NC's. Hopefully, it will soon be 4 of the last 5. Please.......

Posted by: roll tide | Dec 8, 2009 11:25:07 PM

Suh trails Tebow in the Mid-Atlantic? To be expected from the lib-tards that populate that area.

And at least six former winners picked McCoy? Perhaps the theory about unknown multiple concussions is true.

Posted by: Girth | Dec 8, 2009 11:31:23 PM

NE looks like it's the biggest wildcard here. Still pretty low total numbers to extrapolate from. I wouldn't be surprised if Toby has a lot of support up there that hasn't been unearthed yet.

Posted by: Vic | Dec 8, 2009 11:31:57 PM

Roll Tide: Sagarin had the Pac-10 at the top for much of the season....also, NC's doesn't mean the conference is better or more competitive (for exactly the reasons I offered). Come on 'bama/FL, put some P-10 or Mt. West teams on your schedule - please! We can't wait.

Mike t: don't read it if you don't want to....none of what I said is geeky, complicated, nor did I have to "look it up". Sorry if logic bores you....

Posted by: Danno | Dec 8, 2009 11:32:02 PM

Alabama beating Texas may not be that big of a success. After all, a lot of us saw how Texas crumbled last Saturday.
I am a Toby fan, but I don't mind Suh to win, if Toby does not. Anybody else would just mean BCS is full of bias.

Posted by: Aimee | Dec 8, 2009 11:34:00 PM

Man I hope you guys are wrong this year.

Posted by: Trevor | Dec 8, 2009 11:34:56 PM

I really wish would half left mark in against our cupcakes

Posted by: Wyandell25 | Dec 8, 2009 11:35:36 PM

It's interesting that you say Suh will not win the award, despite him now trailing Gerhart (who you say could win it) by only 3%. Suh has actually gained ground on Toby since your 177 ballot projection.

Meanwhile, you say you will reserve judgment on who finishes higher between Suh and McCoy. But Suh is a full 6.2% ahead of McCoy, and that margin has increased since your 177 projection.

I personally think this projection is correct, and the actual order will match it (Ingram, Gerhart, Suh, McCoy, Tebow), but I was curious to know your reasoning behind those thoughts.

Posted by: Babyspeak | Dec 8, 2009 11:43:04 PM

So far, the three front-runners (and possibly the fourth) are all within the historical prediction error range. Using the regional population standard deviation/variance (if the total sizes of the regional groups is known) would provide a better indicator of the prediction variance and would correctly assign variance to the groups with smaller numbers of observations relative to the sample size, and visa versa.

Posted by: Alex Yamauchi | Dec 8, 2009 11:45:10 PM

Also those people saying that ingram almost had the same amount of yards (Gerhart still had about 200 or so more) remember, Ingram had one more game because of the conference championship game. Also, those proclaiming that Ingram had to run against the best of the best in the SEC defenses, look at the rushing defenses he faced this year, and then look at Gerhart's. The Pac-10 had better rush defense and Toby plowed his way through everybody and averaged more than 2 TD's a game.

Posted by: from NY | Dec 8, 2009 11:48:18 PM

with only 15 votes each for NE and mid atlantic, it's tough to say.

you may be right calling suh out. mccoy definitely looks out since he's doing poorly in the south and southwest, south and midwest. but i think with so few votes on the east coast, calling it a two man race is premature.

kari, you've said that you expect voting turnout to be even across all regions, but what would it look like to have a few extra percentage points in the southwest and midwest along with lower turnout rates in new england or mid atlantic?

what are some the bigger turnout discrepancies you've seen in the past? you mentioned that regions without a candidate tend to publicize their votes slower, if at all. but it would be nice if you could discuss how turnout may affect the outcome.

Posted by: strong | Dec 8, 2009 11:52:01 PM

^^This

Posted by: cream | Dec 9, 2009 12:08:25 AM

First off, I want to say what you guys are doing is awesome for people that love to follow the sport. But, my question is do you have some sort of numbers breakdown of all the voters and their specifc sub-group? When you compile the ballots in these lists you have them broke down by formers, NE, MW, etc. and on another page you list the all the voters. Right now Suh is 108 ballots in the MW and I was curious as to how many MW ballots there were total. I understand it takes a lot of work just to do what you are doing, but if there was a way to see how many possible ballots left out there and their location it would be awesome. Thanks again

Posted by: derek | Dec 9, 2009 12:10:48 AM

It would be inspiring to see voters vote without bias. I'm sure the projections are correct, but I still hold out hope that people with integrity don't leave deserving players off their ballot, just to ensure 'their' player wins. I'm guessing integrity has nothing to do with the final results, but one can hope.

Posted by: DAK | Dec 9, 2009 12:14:15 AM

TOBY GERHART DESERVES THE HEISMAN & ....

Toby has been consistently good and has played against the toughest competition.

I AGREE WITH DANNO (the one who wrote the long post). ALL OF YOU, please read Danno's post that begins with "First of all, I want to applaud stiffarmtrophy.com for ignoring all the noise and rhetoric and presenting not only "just the facts", but also ..... "

Posted by: Shankar Saikia | Dec 9, 2009 12:24:38 AM

To everyone on the Toby Train. Yes, he does have more yards than Ingram in fewer games. I can not help but to believe that many of you are leaving out the most important stat on purpose. That is yards per carry, and yards after contact in which Ingram is king. Ingram would have to play 2 more games to catch Toby in total carries. Ingram is far more efficeint. Also Saban has not tried to pad Ingrams numbers like many other coaches. Bama also has an outstanding Freshman that gets alot of carries. I will end by saying this, when deciding on who to vote for, vote for the one that did the most with the ball when he had it.

Posted by: Sam | Dec 9, 2009 12:27:21 AM

Danno,

The SEC has the most players of any conference in the NFL, and has led all conferences in that category every NFL season since 2001.

Gerhart played against two teams ranked in the top 30 nationally in total defense, Ingram played against 6.

If Alabama beats Texas, that will be 4 straight national titles for the SEC, and 6 of the 12 national titles in the BCS era. Bama would be the 4th different SEC team to win a title in the BCS era (and let's not forget a 5th SEC team, Auburn, going undefeated in 2004).

Posted by: winc74 | Dec 9, 2009 12:29:47 AM

Yards after contact is impossible to compare because those stats aren't kept officially, but I suspect Toby would do pretty damn well in comparison.

Also hard to have too high of a YPC when the goalline is tackling you 26 times...

Reminds me of my favorite stat; Toby had more TDs in November than Ingram had his entire regular season.

Child please.

Posted by: Vic | Dec 9, 2009 12:31:05 AM

NE has gotta start breaking more for Toby

Posted by: David | Dec 9, 2009 12:31:52 AM

id like to see a sec-pac 10 championship for once. I feel like the big 10 and big 12 are made for teams to run the table and whichever team comes out on top ends up just being rocked when they get to the BCS championship game. SEC does it a bit too, but all the pac 10 teams just end up beating each other up. USC would've put up a better fight in any of the past three years than the non SEC team that reached the championship.

GERHART for Heisman. Total defense is irrelevant...look at rush defense sam

Posted by: Alex | Dec 9, 2009 12:42:14 AM

i mean winc74

Posted by: Alex | Dec 9, 2009 12:42:44 AM

i mean winc74

Posted by: Alex | Dec 9, 2009 12:43:23 AM

toby played against 4 top 30 rush defenses, Ingram only played against florida #14 winc74

Posted by: Alex | Dec 9, 2009 12:46:49 AM

Gerhart played against 4 top 30 rush defenses, Ingram only played florida #14 Winc74

Posted by: Alex | Dec 9, 2009 12:48:05 AM

Like I said. Your guy had 2 games worth of carries over Ingram, that should equate to more yards and that is a stat you can look up. By the way Bamas Defense has not allowed a 100 yard rusher per game in almost 2 seasons. Like to see what they would do to Toby. Child Please!

Posted by: Sam | Dec 9, 2009 12:49:24 AM

emofootball.com has an unbiased stat breakdown of Gerhart and Ingram. They also have a stat breakdown of conference rankings. Interesting read.

Posted by: Brandon | Dec 9, 2009 12:52:47 AM

It's hard to say the Pac 10's rushing defense was better than the SEC's. Total Yardage was lower, but the Pac 10 throws the ball more. There were almost 1000 more carries by SEC offenses than by Pac 10. SEC's yards per carry defenses were lower, which may be a more telling stat. Also, Ingram lacks the TDs because many times Alabama's play calling in the red zone went to passing resulting in more FGs than TDs. Stanford's coaches were smart enough to ride their horse into the endzone. Ingram made the most of his opportunities, as he averaged a yard and a half more than Gerhart per touch. I would not be disappointed if either of them won it, but if you quote stats, you have to put them in perspective.

Posted by: Brandon | Dec 9, 2009 1:05:36 AM

winc74, Gerhart faced SIX of the top 45 rushing defensed in the country. Alabama faced THREE, including their bonus game against Florida.

Gerhart average against ranked teams: 200 yards per game.

Gerhart gets the ball more per game because he has the incredible stamina to carry the ball 38 times if his team needs it. That's a strength, not a weakness.

Posted by: Reasonable | Dec 9, 2009 1:16:10 AM

This sam believes that the other Sam is off the beaten path. If you're going to count yards per carry, why don't you count Toby's passer rating? Something in the neighborhood of 500, I think :)

If you're the most valued player on your team, and if you're the focus of the opposition's defense, you're going to see the most touches and get hit hard. Stanford rode Toby like the horse he is, and while the opposition kept punishing him, he kept scoring touchdowns. Don't ask me why Nick Saban didn't trust Ingram with the keys to the offense, but I trust it wasn't because Saban didn't want to score more points.

Toby's numbers weren't padded either. And Ingram had an extra game on Toby anyway. I bet Ingram isn't even the best running back on his team if you count carries per touchdown or yards per carry. There are some games where he just stunk it up and got yanked. When Toby didn't get carries, it was because Stanford needed to score fast and catch up before the game was over. When Ingram gets yanked, either Upchurch or Richardson get put in to do better.

I'll say it again: Toby converted 83% of the third/fourth downs where he touched the ball. Ingram needs to step it up.

Posted by: sam | Dec 9, 2009 1:17:17 AM

BRANDON
there are two more teams in the sec than there are in the pac-10 so of course they will have a higher amount of rushes than the pac 10 will since there are two more teams in the league.also the SEC doesnt really have a quarterback that can throw the ball worth a damn outside of Ryan Mallet who was atransfer anyways. Jevan sneed for all of his preseason hype was a bust this year. tennessee was afraid to throw the ball agaisnt florida even when they were down two scores they just pounded the ball so they would avoid a blowout. georgia lost stafford to the nfl. on the whole the conference needs to run the ball b/c they can hardly pass

Posted by: UNBIASED | Dec 9, 2009 1:20:34 AM

******Dunno & the rest of these PAC-10 Homers don-t have a clue...******

-Better Competition???
STANFORD ONLY PLAYED 5 TEAMS THAT HAD A WINNING RECORD... of the 7 left, 5 had a losing record. They only faced 3 teams that were ranked when they played, with only one being in the Top-10.

BAMA PLAYED ONLY 3 TEAMS WITH LOSING RECORDS; 10 teams with winning records. They faced 5 teams that were ranked when they played, with 3 being in the Top-10.

-Padding stats???
Gerhart doesn't have to split time with another back like Ingram does.
Bama also doesn't try to run up the score...we've had a lot of practice with the victory formation.

-So the PAC-10 has 7 of 10 teams in bowls, huh?
Year in & year out, The SEC dominates the bowl season. The SEC has 10 of 12 teams in bowl games. I would be willing to bet they will dominate it again this season as well.

-The SEC is the 'BEST' conference with the 'Best' competition
We dominate because we recruit the best players. Just look at the recruiting rankings every year. Currently, there are 6 SEC teams in the Top-10. How many PAC-10 teams are there? ANYBODY????

ONLY ONE!!! WHAT A JOKE!!!

Posted by: Chaos | Dec 9, 2009 1:21:44 AM

FYI, yards after contact are kept up with officially. Ingram has 1,002 yards after contact. My only point is for everyone to do their research, everything is relevant.

Posted by: Sam | Dec 9, 2009 1:27:33 AM

Total D isn't irrevalant. Mark Ingram faced 5 top-16 pass defences, and when you have a great pass defense, and you face a team that cant throw the ball, then putting 8 in the box all day is just fine. That's what the teams did, and the only one that worked for was Auburn. And his stats where never padded.

Stanford beat 1 good team all season: Oregon. Alabama beat 3. How many win you have is important. Otherwise, you might as well go play in d2 or d3.

Posted by: Will | Dec 9, 2009 1:42:47 AM

If it's an official stat then find it for Toby.

I bet you can't. Do your research.

Child please.

Posted by: Vic | Dec 9, 2009 1:46:42 AM

SEC can stick 8 guys in the box every play because the qb's can't beat the defenses with their arms.

Posted by: UNBIASED | Dec 9, 2009 1:55:21 AM

Its not accurate to look at any defensive ranking be it rush defense or total defense. Most of the teams in the West run a more pass oriented offense so i would be shocked if they gave up more rushing yards than an SEC team. If i had a vote, it goes to Ingram because he averaged more yards per carry and had a few TD's recieving as well. I have no doubt that had he got as many touches as Gerhart he would have ran for more yards. 3 of the out of conference teams Bama played Ingram got 11 touches or less because they were playing 2nd, 3rd, and 4th string backs.

Posted by: chris | Dec 9, 2009 2:00:46 AM

Funny ... you keep hearing the excuse makers claim Ingram's stats were "padded" compared to Gerhart because Alabama had to play an actual conference championship game against a REAL defense . What they never mention is Gerhart ACTUALLY had SIXTY TWO MORE CARRIES this season LOL .

At the average Ingram maintained on his yards per actual carry ( Ingrams YPC was GREATER than Gerhart's all year long by the way ) Ingram would have toasted Gerhart with 2200+ yards

Instead Ingram split time with Trent Richardson as Bama worked it's way to the National Title game . He completely sat out entire halves against cupcakes (while Gerhart busted his azz to collect 98 yards against .... Wake Forest ??????? )

As far as the people trying to claim the Pac 1+9 run defenses are "good" because no one bothered to run the ball ... what a laugh . Just because the total yards on the ground is low doesn't mean jack squat when other conferences actually DO run the ball . Half the teams in the SEC would CRUSH a Pac 1+9 defense on the ground .

You start looking at how many yards teams gained PER CARRY against Pac 1+9 defenses when they actually did run few times and it becomes a joke to even pretend they stack up against the SEC as a credible conference for rush defense .

On the other hand stick Gerhart up against the REAL run defenses in the SEC and he would be lucky to make it through a season ( if WAKE FOREST can beat you down so can Vandy , Mississippi State , Kentucky , well hell ... let's just say pretty much ANY defense in the SEC lol ) Gerhart would have needed 200 more carries in the SEC instead of the 62 extra he did have to have stayed ahead of Ingram in total yards for the season hehehe

Posted by: BamaLOLs | Dec 9, 2009 2:13:12 AM

To the guy from New York who posted the following, Ingram did have 200 yards less , but to say that he ran against the weaker opponents is obsurd. Again another person talking about stats and not knowing a lick of anything else other than the numbers. Let me break it down for you since you are too dumb to understand. Mark does have 200 yards less and did have one extra game bravo !!! But .... Mark also had 65 or more less touches thats because he is on a team with a stable of stud running backs. You factor in his 6.6 yard per average and you can add over 400 yards to his total and on average about 6 more td's. Also consider that Nick Saban has more integrity than any most do and does not pad stats and run up scores like say Florida !! Most games this season Ingram was on the sidelines by the third period. When you look at the total body of work and all the stats instead of just the final total, you will then realize that Ingram is a star among stars, and is just as deserving if not more so than any past winner. Another thing to think about , he had close to 200 yards total offense against the number one team and number one defense not to mention 3 touchdowns. So good sir I hope you like crow pie come saturday it will be well deserved. RTR INGRAM 2009 HEISMAN WINNER.

iN RESPONSE TOO:
Also those people saying that ingram almost had the same amount of yards (Gerhart still had about 200 or so more) remember, Ingram had one more game because of the conference championship game. Also, those proclaiming that Ingram had to run against the best of the best in the SEC defenses, look at the rushing defenses he faced this year, and then look at Gerhart's. The Pac-10 had better rush defense and Toby plowed his way through everybody and averaged more than 2 TD's a game.

Posted by: Ben | Dec 9, 2009 3:05:37 AM

Posted by: Ben | Dec 9, 2009 3:13:49 AM

Posted by: Ben | Dec 9, 2009 3:13:51 AM

Ingram would catch Toby with more games/more garbage time, blah blah blah... Yards comparisons are going to be close either way and points can be made on both sides ... And YPC/Yards after contact, Toby did and would do just as well or better than Ingram. BUT -- what about the 26 TD's!? 26. That's a Pac-10 record. All time. Come on. They weren't all goal line vultures either, and a lot of the short ones were set up by -- guess what -- huge Toby runs.

The "Pac-10 defenses are weak" argument is tired and the same could be said about the SEC based on characteristics of the respective conferences. People making the "carried the team on his back" arguments for Suh? Give it to Toby, then. Almost singlehandedly turned around Stanford's program. Basically had to blame the coaching staff for the losses because they DIDN'T hand it to toby the tank engine.

Posted by: coooldude | Dec 9, 2009 3:27:43 AM

Danno,

Gerhart is a great player and certainly worthy of the Heisman but so is Ingram. Bama hardly padded their stats by playing these weak teams as you imply. Against FIU, UTC, and North Texas Ingram was only given the ball on average about 10 times per game and only 29 carries in all 3 games combined. I don't call that padding stats. If Gerhart played in those game the man would of had no less than around 26 carries per game. Ingram is also more of a dual threat than Gerhart. Ingram is solid in the receiving game as well.

I have to also point out that going into the SEC championship game that Gerhart had nearly 100 more touches than Ingram. Even after the SEC championship Gerhart has over 60+ plus touches. For Ingram, those 60+ touches would be at least 3 more games worth of plays.

PAC 10 strength...? What a joke. Even with FIU, UTC, and North Texas Bama's strength of schedule is 20 and Standford is 19 according to Sagarin Ratings. Sagarin also has Bama (3-0) against Top 10 teams and (7-0) against Top 30 teams. Standford is (1-0) against Top 10 and (2-2) against top 30. Who played the tougher schedule again?

Posted by: Matt | Dec 9, 2009 3:38:56 AM

Okay, tired of hearing about Gerhart having less games to get his stats. That is untrue. Ingram sat out majority of the North Texas game due to lingering injury, only had 8 carries (for 91 yards) and Florida International he had 10 carries (for 56 yards). Had he played both of these games past the 1st quarter he would have run away with the trophy. Can't forget about his 30 receptions for over 300 yards as well. Many people forget that he also split time with Trent Richardson (125 carries for 640 yards). Both Gerhart and Ingram are very deserving and I will be happy with either, but don't try and bash Ingram because he played in the SECCG. Maybe the Pac10 will finally grow up and add a championship game. As far as the SEC playing USC, several have tried to get the precious USC to schedule over the last few years and they refuse. Thought they would cakewalk through their conference this year and earn that automatic bid only to find out they were a mediocre team in a mediocre league.

Posted by: Chris Young | Dec 9, 2009 3:56:26 AM

I love the selected stats.

Gerhart total yards rushing and receiving (1885)

Ingram total yards rushing and receiving (1889)

Right...Gerhart is soooo much more of a beast? I think not. Keep in mind Gerhart has 60+ plus more touches in the rush game than Ingram. With Ingram averaging over 6 yards per carry...well you do that math.

Posted by: Matt | Dec 9, 2009 3:58:46 AM

Stiffarmtrophy.com:

Just curious, what possessed you to put the Omaha and Lincoln sportswriters in the "Southwest" region. Is it just because they tend to vote in line with the actual Southwest?

Posted by: Levi | Dec 9, 2009 4:11:28 AM

Read this, writer is probably skewed towards sec but numbers don't lie.

http://www.secsportsfan.com/top-college-football-bowl-conference.html

Sec has the best bowl winning % overall but pac-10 is close, and sec is 9-8 all time vs pac-10 in bowls.

The SEC leads the Pac-10 60-38-5 (.607). However, over the past 11 years (1998 - 2008), the Pac-10 actually leads the SEC 10-7 (.588).

The above calculation is based on "historical conference affiliation." If you run the same SEC vs Pac-10 numbers based on "current conference affiliation" you find out that the SEC leads 63-40-6 (.578).

For danno mostly.

Posted by: Cah | Dec 9, 2009 4:16:25 AM

Here's a good breakdown for SEC bowl games all time...SEC leads by a decent margin over most for % and total. Pac-10 is closest i think. Head to head they are even, SEC leads by 9-8 overall and 6-6 in the current.

http://www.secsportsfan.com/top-college-football-bowl-conference.html

This a breakdown of SEC vs. Pac-10. The SEC leads the Pac-10 60-38-5 (.607). However, over the past 11 years (1998 - 2008), the Pac-10 actually leads the SEC 10-7 (.588).

http://www.secsportsfan.com/sec-vs-pac-10-football.html

Yes, it is an sec biased site. Numbers are the part to look at, not the writing. I'm an Alabama guy and I think some of the stuff they write is retarded.

Posted by: Cah | Dec 9, 2009 4:26:13 AM

Boise State gets turned down because nobody is going to pay them 7 figures for them to come and play. That is absurd!!

Posted by: Jason | Dec 9, 2009 4:43:15 AM

For all those who keep saying Toby faced better rush defenses than Ingram are just plain wrong. Those stats are skewed. First off the Pac 10 is a pass oriented conference. If you break down those rushing defensive stats you would see that the pac 10 has 6.5 fewer rushes per game then those sec rush defenses. The sec average per carry for their running backs is around 4.5. You multiply that by 6.5 you get almost 30 yards. The same goes if you subtract that 30 per games for the sec teams. In the SEC 7 Teams rushed for over 2000 yards. 5 Teams in the SEC averaged over 40 carries per game, pac 10 on only 1 team oregon averaged that. 6 SEC teams gave up only 11 rushing TD's per game. Not one PAC 10 team can say that. You subtact those 30 yards per game and you will realize the sec run defense are much more superior.

Posted by: bryce | Dec 9, 2009 4:50:20 AM

Gerhart combined rushing/receiving yards: 321 touches, 1885 yards. Ingram combined rushing/receiving yards: 279 touches, for 1866 yards. Give Ingram those extra 42 touches......give him another 250 yards and 5 touchdowns....

And would everyone please quit acting like playing Notre Dame is like playing a team of the caliber of the SEC? Geez.......Notre Dame isn't the calibur of a Big East team anymore......

Posted by: CajunC | Dec 9, 2009 5:01:29 AM

Gerhart has more yards because he had a lot more carries than Ingram. Also, their All-purpose yards are almost even despite Gerhart touching the ball a lot more during the season. Here is the breakdown: Ingram-249 carries for 1542 yards and 30 rec. for 322 yards; Gerhart-311 carries for 1736 yards and 10 rec. for 149 yards. Gerhart has 1885 total yards versus Ingram's 1864 total yards. However, Ingram is just 21 yards behind on 42 fewer touches. This means that Ingram did a lot more when the ball was in his hands than Gerhart. Someone said earlier that yards after contact is not tracked. Really? Show me and NFL scout that does not track that!

Gerhart is a talented player and deserves to be in the Top 3, but trying to say Ingram is not in his league is way off base. When he almost matches Gerhart's total yards on 42 fewer touches, that is going to get him the votes that some of you seem to act like he does not deserve. Take your Stanford hat off and look at it from both sides and you will see why this vote is as tight as it is.

Posted by: Lurker | Dec 9, 2009 5:08:36 AM

Mark Ingram and Toby Gerhart are great backs and either one would deserve to win the trophy. I have no dawg in this fight, however, Ingram does play against stronger competition and tougher defenses in the SEC. I have the watched Big 12, PAC 10 and Big 10 all year and the Big12 abd Pac10 doesn't seem to play defense at all. Only Nebraska has a decent defense that stops the other teams. Suh is a folk hero in the Big-12, if he had a name like "Jerry Smith" he would only be considered as another good player, not great. Suh did get a DUI earlier this year after hitting a parked car I read somewhere, and I wonder if that hurts his chances of getting more votes. Coach Nick Saban and Mark Ingram will be in New York saturday to accept this award of behalf of The Alabama Crimson Tide. I love saying that schools name.. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE! Not even a fan here but it does sound pretty darn cool.

Posted by: Jon | Dec 9, 2009 5:36:33 AM

I just wanted to make a comment about media bias playing a role in the voting. I am an Alabama fan. I was listening to the radio yesterday and it was mentioned that some of the newspaper staffs in the South left Ingram completely off their ballots. I don't think it's fair, to a player, to be left off a ballot simply because the voter doesn't like the team. That said, I would award Suh the trophy if it was up to me. Yes, I'm a Bama fan and would be thrilled for Ingram to win it but Suh is an absolute monster.

Posted by: Rick | Dec 9, 2009 5:54:15 AM

"To everyone on the Toby Train. Yes, he does have more yards than Ingram in fewer games. I can not help but to believe that many of you are leaving out the most important stat on purpose. That is yards per carry, and yards after contact in which Ingram is king."

Yards after contact is a cooked stat and not reliable, so let's just stop the pretend game on that one. YPC is in favor of Ingram, yes, but Ingram's YPC against Auburn and Arkansas was below 3 YPC (!) and his backups had higher YPC's against Florida - so his low-yardage games are not a matter of "taking him out in a blowout" but about him not being able to produce big gains in those games.

"I will end by saying this, when deciding on who to vote for, vote for the one that did the most with the ball when he had it. "

When I think "do the most with the ball," I think scoring touchdown - which Toby has over MI by a 60% margin.

Posted by: Topher | Dec 9, 2009 6:05:04 AM

This a great site. Ive told all my buddies about it. It concerns me that a guy who plays for the # 1 football in the country is in a race with 2 guys who play for basically teams that are not on same page as bama. To hear suh being mentioned is a joke. He has great game against a not so good texas o line and the world jumps on his ship. If ingram doesnt win, they should burn the heisman trophy...... My list is #1 ingram #2 gerhart #3 tebow..... ROLL TIDE

Posted by: MIKE SHERIDAN | Dec 9, 2009 6:15:18 AM

Anyone that thinks that the PAC-10 has defensive superiority to the SEC is only looking at the numbers peripherally.

Just looking at basic defensive totals doesn't give the full picture. As an average, the SEC gives up 3.85 yards a carry compared to the PAC-10's 4.10. Further, the SEC defenses see 3-4 more rush attempts per game. Even more to the point, is that the SEC defenses are so tough that the entire conference gave up 15 fewer rushing TDs.

When you take out the top 2 defenses in the SEC (Florida and Alabama), the SEC rush defense number is more comparable to the PAC-10, but still less at 4.01 YPC. Take out the top two of the PAC-10 and that number inflates to 4.3.

When comparing what these conferences did against the top 25, the trend continues.

Taking out Stanford's impact to rushing numbers in the PAC-10, the PAC-10 drops just under 3.9 YPC (still above the average attempt in the SEC). Whereas you take out Alabama's impact and the number drops to 3.72.

So, for the love of god, please don't be fooled by totals.

Posted by: Gordon Typer | Dec 9, 2009 6:24:29 AM

hey wyandell :3

Posted by: 20/20/20/20 | Dec 9, 2009 6:34:42 AM

you'd think a potential Heisman winner wouldn't need to split carries.

Posted by: scott | Dec 9, 2009 6:35:55 AM

"It concerns me that a guy who plays for the # 1 football in the country is in a race with 2 guys who play for basically teams that are not on same page as bama."

I suggest you do some reading (if you can read) about the Heisman - it's for the Most Outstanding college football player. Says nothing about team record. Guys on good teams who flop over against rivals and in conference games (179 yards combined against UT, Auburn and Arkansas) aren't normally in the company of "outstanding."

The Bama offense has benefitted tremendously from Alabama's fearsome defense, which puts the offense in a position to chew up the clock and feed the running game. Stanford has been in a position that demands scoring a lot of points and in many cases playing from behind. Teams normally go to the pass in that situation, which makes Gerhart's work as a comeback running back all the more impressive - Gerhart is such a weapon that Stanford chooses to run it.

Posted by: Topher | Dec 9, 2009 6:40:55 AM

For those who point to the statistic that Gerhart faced more top-ranked rush defenses than Ingram, consider who those rush defenses faced week in and week out: weak Pac-10 running games. Put those defenses up against an Ingram, Tate, Hardesty, or Dixon every week, and that stat would be drastically different.

Posted by: keith | Dec 9, 2009 6:42:27 AM

"you'd think a potential Heisman winner wouldn't need to split carries."

Scott, you haven't made the logical leap - Ingram's backup is so good he's going to win the Heisman next year! (In fact they've already counted them.) There's also a freshman who is redshirting who is getting Heisman votes this year.

EVERYONE on Alabama is a first-round draft pick! Actually Alabama has never lost a game, the SEC has cooked the books and awarded "victories" to the other teams to keep them from folding their programs.

Posted by: Topher | Dec 9, 2009 6:43:57 AM

The great RB get it in the endzone when their team is in the red zone.

One set of stats for you.

Alabama has been in the redzone 55 times in 13 games and scored a TD 45% of the time. This is ranked 111th in the nation. A H____ Trophy winner should have a nose for the endzone, but I've watched the tide settle for 22 FG in the RZ. Can't blame this on the SEC defense because Alabama is ranked so bad nationally and only ranked ahead of Vandy in the SEC. Alabama is ranked 3rd in the nation when they can't get in the EZ and have to settle for a FG.

Stanford has been in the RZ 56 times in 12 games and scored a TD 70% of the time. This is ranked 18th in the nation. Gerhart will get it in the EZ for 6 points most of the time. Same can't be said for Ingram.

Posted by: futball | Dec 9, 2009 7:14:37 AM

If Toby is so good. Why didn't he team go undefeated, and why are they rated number 19th or 20th in the polls?

Posted by: layedbak | Dec 9, 2009 7:18:07 AM

The term fan-boy comes to mind when I read a lot of these posts, not that it's particularly wrong, but it is amusing.

I have to say that any of the players going to New York are deserving of the trophy in their own ways. If Gerhart wins, it would be great, he is certainly deserving same goes for Ingram and Suh. To be honest I would like to see Suh win for the sake of real defensive player winning. Make no bones about it, if Woodson wasn't a kick returner and play a few downs at receiver, he would have never been considered.

I fully admit that I am a Bama guy, I'm an alumnus and love the team. I'd absolutely love to see Ingram win the trophy, particularly so those Auburn folks will finally shut up about us not having a winner. But my only problem with that is that in my opinion, (something that many of the people posting here can't seem to get straight, that they're posting opinions and selective statistics, not facts) isn't probably the best player on the team. Rolando McClain is really the key component to the central focus of the Alabama team.

As a fan it is a huge benefit to even be able to make that statement, but it does say something about how skewed this award really is towards to offensive side of the ball. Hopefully Suh has a great showing and paves the way for guys like McClain in the future, as these guys really are the real core of their teams.

And to Topher:
Your condescending and sarcastic intentions aside, yes, Trent Richardson might very well win the Heisman in the next couple of years. He is just that damn good. So when he wins it, you can once again reprise your vitriol towards the SEC. After all SEC fans don't mind people not liking the conference, it should bother us when people stop hating us, because then you're irrelevant, much like the Big Ten(11).

Posted by: Salsa Boy | Dec 9, 2009 7:20:06 AM

"If Toby is so good. Why didn't he team go undefeated, and why are they rated number 19th or 20th in the polls?"

This line of argument is sophomoric and ignorant, but against my better judgment I will respond - if Ingram is so valuable, how come Alabama didn't lose to Auburn where he was a non-factor, or Tennessee where he didn't crack the century mark?

If a team can win a rivarly game with their "best player" getting benched, I'm not convinced he's really all that.

BTW, Stanford has been outplayed in only one of their losses - the other three resulted from a dropped pass, a horrible call by the official and a bad coaching decision. Toby has kept Stanford in position to win 11 of their 12 ballgames.

Posted by: Topher | Dec 9, 2009 7:25:56 AM

"After all SEC fans don't mind people not liking the conference, it should bother us when people stop hating us, because then you're irrelevant, much like the Big Ten(11)."

Maybe you guys could think about being more reasonable about your conference pride than the standy "OMG sec sppeeedd so touugghhh LOL." No argument that the SEC wins a lot of football games, although the bowl record with the Big Ten is tied last time I checked - and if you remove the outlier Ohio State from the count, the Big Ten dominates in SEC bowls. And try scheduling somebody - ANYbody - out of conference. Only Florida can say they have to play somebody tough out of the SEC.

Aside from CBS the rest of the country is pretty tired of the SEC circle-jerk that takes place every fall, and it really perpetuates redneck stereotypes, which is not something the South should want to be known for.

Posted by: Topher | Dec 9, 2009 7:31:02 AM

Alex,

Winc74 is correct. There are 12 SEC teams, while just 10 for the PAC. Each SEC team plays every other team in their division and rotate 3 teams from the opposite division every 2 years or so. This happens every year. So where each PAC-10 team plays 9 other PAC-10 opponents each year, the SEC plays 8 other SEC opponents. Where is the big disparity? The past few years, in post season play the SEC consistently beats a majority of the out of conference opponents (not every time, but more often than not). Plus, you can't just dismiss the fact that we have won 3 out of the last 4 BCS championships against BIG-10 and BIG-12 opponents.

I will however agree with you on one point, the PAC-10 does play great football. For years most of the media seem to love the BIG-12. I think the PAC-10 could make an argument. However, up until the last two years the PAC-10 was extremely top heavy. Not so much anymore.

That being said, I too would put any SEC team against any PAC-10 team on any Saturday and expect the SEC to win 7 to 8 out of 10.

Posted by: jclark304 | Dec 9, 2009 7:31:24 AM

If Ingram had the same number of carries as Gerhart, he would have rushed for 1,924 yards this season, using his YPC average. Anyone watching Bama games this season know that it was Ingram who carried the Tide throughout much of the SEC schedule as the QB was gaining experience. In addition, Ingram is much more valuable as a back. He is the complete package: dominant runner, excellent receiver,and crushing pass protector. I've only watched Gerhart twice, and while an outstanding back, I would take Ingram any day if I had to choose. Why punish a player when a classy coach refuses to pad statistics so his player can win the Heisman?

Posted by: Ted | Dec 9, 2009 7:39:50 AM

Good point raised by Alex Yamaguchi. The problem is that the variance is hard to determine. How is it affected by the locations of the candidates? Does it change with the number of finalists? Is it really that consistent from one year to the next?

Another question: Is there a good estimate on how many of the ballots collected by SAT were submitted before the championship games (Looking at the current breakdown, it seems likely that a lot of the former winners did this)? Is there a precident for one player dropping from almost unanimous favorite to also-ran in the middle of voting?

Posted by: CaptFamous | Dec 9, 2009 7:52:32 AM

In addition to your regional argument for why Suh's lead won't hold up, I suspect there's another reason to believe that. There's been a big surge in public support for him as an underdog laboring against the establishment. Sportswriters who voted for him, especially those who put him first, have some incentive to publish their ballot in that kind of atmosphere. Those who voted the traditional "only ball handlers need apply," not so much.

Posted by: Michael Cain | Dec 9, 2009 7:56:12 AM

Danno: "If a team in the SEC starts out the season ranked in the top three or five in the nation" "and then ends the season in the Top 5, by what possible means do we know the SEC is the best conference?"

Because Alabama and Florida were the two superior teams coming into the year. Ole Miss also started out at #4 and didn't survive the SEC schedule and ended up with 4 losses. The SEC does this year in and year out and people still can't understand that for the most part, the SEC is superior. Just look at the bowl matchups, 4 loss SEC teams are matched up against 2 loss teams, why is that? Because it's a pretty equal matchup.

Since most of the Midwest thinks that Gerhart is so far superior to Ingram.

I crunched some numbers for fun comparing him and Ingram.

Now, their real numbers have Gerhart rushing 311 times for 1736 yards, a 5.6 average and scored 26 TDs.

Ingram rushed 249 times for 1542 yards, a 6.2 average and scored 15 TDs.

Now, to compare them without looking at the opponents that each player was pitted against I took the difference in rushing attempts and either added (in Ingram's case) or subtracted (in Gerhart's case) from what they actually did in order to make an equal comparison based on number of carries. That difference was "62" giving both RB's the same hypothetical number of carries. Using their respective actual per carry averages I multiplied that to the number of carries which gave Ingram a 90 yard total advantage (or 1926 yards) when I added that number to Intram's total yards. When I subtracted (in Gerhart's case) Ingram still had the advantage, by 148 yards (or 1394 yards).

Also, adjusting their TD's based on the average number of carries for each TD, Ingram wound up with 19 and Gerhart with 20.

I know this is just all hypothetical and is totally meaningless. I'm also not a math major or anything like that. Just thought it would be interesting to see how they compared in this manner.

Posted by: Dustin | Dec 9, 2009 7:57:06 AM

This Sam guy needs to get his facts straight. Ingram was never pulled from a game other than auburn, the only bad game he had. When Bama didn't need him he didn't play. No need to risk him getting injured. Yea ingram played one more game than Gerhart but Gerhart got 60+ more carries. It would take Ingram 3 more games to get those touches!!! So give Ingram 60 more carries at 6.2 yards per and there you go

Posted by: CDT | Dec 9, 2009 8:02:13 AM

I think the TD argument between Gerhart and Ingram is irrelevant for this reason: Alabama needed no more touchdowns than Ingram gave them. They're 13-0. Yeah if Ingram had punched it in on a few of those red zone trips their games wouldn't have been so interesting but in the end they didn't need anymore TDs because they stayed undefeated. Gerhart scored more TDs but not the number his team needed. And before anyone cries about it being an individual award, it can't really be an individual award because everything you do on the field depends on help from your teammates.

Posted by: Kevin | Dec 9, 2009 8:05:06 AM

Trent Richardson would have put up similar numbers as Ingram had he started. That doesn't take anything away from Ingram. He's an incredible player and deserves the award. It doesn't mean he should take every carry when you have a 5 star freshman on the team that can keep your backfield fresh. Some people want to penalize Ingram because he plays on a great team with more than one option at running back.

Posted by: Rick | Dec 9, 2009 8:06:49 AM

I think what you do is awesome. Your methodology works well and is proven. I just HOPE this is the first year that you are WRONG!!! I think it would be a travesty if Suh does not win it. He is clearly the best player in the country with Gerhart a close second. But if I were a betting man I'd base my decision on your information. Again, I just hope you're wrong this year! Next year you can get it right again.

Posted by: Drew | Dec 9, 2009 8:13:54 AM

"I will end by saying this, when deciding on who to vote for, vote for the one that did the most with the ball when he had it."

Well, except for the fact that the best player in the country didn't have the ball all that much, given he was a D-Lineman.

Posted by: Jeff | Dec 9, 2009 8:29:01 AM

Anyway ya look at it. There wasn't anyone out there that stood out as a real Hiesman this year and that is why it is so wide open as to who wins. I am a fan of Bama but if someone who finishes with an ave of 118 ypg and 5 games he was held under 100 yards and mostly under 50 yards. And finishes 12th in the nation as a RB! Well I believe he is the best RB over all in the Nation but his stats are no Hiesman. I guess my biggest question would be how many Hiesmans came from the team playing for the national title? I think mostly players that do get the votes even if there are many many other players that did so much better than he did. As the pre-season predictions flop and should be thrown out and never used again as it underminds the rest of the nation players. That is a joke to say the least. As is pre-season polls just how many teams that started out in the top ten finish out of the top 25? Face it quit the pre-season polls as well as pre-season predictions for Hiesman then just maybe all players and teams can start out on the same level. As it is they all start 0-0 with no stats

Posted by: scott | Dec 9, 2009 8:34:11 AM

Based on how accurate your previous projections have been, how can you confidently project that Suh won't win?

Seems premature to me. Last year, you had 20% or so *more* ballots than you have now, and yet your projections were still off by 1.3% on the leader and 4.6% on the 2nd place finisher. Since Suh and the leader Ingram are only separated by 4.4% currently, all it would take is for your errors to fall the right way and Suh ends up winning.

So I figure Suh's got around a 10% shot of pulling this out -- thus it's too early to declare him out of the race.

Posted by: huskerator 5000 | Dec 9, 2009 8:38:17 AM

Why doesn't the SEC schedule someone from the P10 or M West? Better question is: Why should they? Especially M West or WAC. If they win people will just shrug their shoulders and say they should beat them but if they don't people will be jumping and saying see the SEC isn't that all great. People easily become jealous of another conference's success especially if it comes from as hot button a place as the South. I think we all saw what happened after my Tide got beaten by Utah last year.

I'll agree the P10 plays a better out of conference schedule with more quality teams. However there is a signifcant difference between both conferences. The P10 plays a more wide open offense oriented defense second high scoring shootouts while the SEC plays a more ground and pound you run the football and win with great D and that type of football takes a toll on a team. It maybe an excuse but it's the truth.

Though to say the SEC doesn't play any quality out of conference teams is not true. AL played Va Tech, Arkansas played TX A&M and destroyed them and compare that with how much TX struggled with A&M. Auburn played West VA. TN played UCLA, GA played OK State and AZ State so it's not all cupcakes. Are there some? You bet but when you are considered the best conference in the country by most people by and large and you stand a great chance of playing for a NC with just 1 loss most seasons now? Why schedule a Boise? TCU? Also I think it's kinda unfair to lump Troy(it's just Troy now) in with LA Laf, FL International and such. Troy has a good program and has given a good many upper echelon teams fits over the years. To be honest though I would love to see the SEC schedule a Boise or TCU as a college football fan.

My Heisman Top 5
1.Ingram-He played his best football against some of the best defenses in the country and on the national stage in primetime. 150 rush,35 receiving, 2 TDs(VA Tech), 246 rush against South Carolina, 172 against MS, 144 rush against LSU and 113 rush with 3 TDs and 76 more rec. against the best defense at the time in the country. He pretty much willed AL to a win over South Carolina and was the second most dominant performance I saw this year considering who he was playing against on the defensive side of the ball.
2.Suh-His game against TX was the best performance of the season. I really wouldn't complain if he won since he plays on the line and where football games are won. He may the best player in the country on a position by position basis along with Eric Berry.
3.Gerhart-His numbers don't lie but when you put them up against P10 defenses you absolutely should have numbers like that but he still put them up and it should count for something.

If it's not one of those three then that's a real shame.

Posted by: Joe | Dec 9, 2009 8:55:16 AM

If it's not one of those three then that's a real shame.

Posted by: Joe | Dec 9, 2009 8:55:16 AM

Can someone at the website please post when updates will be done so we can know when to check your site?

Thanks

Posted by: Andrew Bekken | Dec 9, 2009 9:24:03 AM

I did an analysis of Ingram verses Gerhart adding all of the rushes by all others on their respective teams. Bama rushed the ball 53 times more than Stanford.

Based on both backs carrying the ball every time their team ran the ball and using their average per carry, Ingram would have had 3,405 yards (262/game) and Gerhart would have had 2,774 (231/game) or 630 more total yards for the season.

So while this is theoretical, Ingram would have had
53 more carries
630 more total yards
averaged 0.61 more yards per carry
9 less TD's
averaged 31 more yards per game.

To make things even more comparable, if you extrapolte Ingram's numbers to 12 games, Ingram would have had
11 more carries
368 more total yards
averaged 0.13 more yards per carry
11 less TD's
averaged 11 more yards per game.

Posted by: Andrew Bekken | Dec 9, 2009 9:27:39 AM

You guys are killing me with the "Gerhart played better RUN defenses" than Ingram. Sorry, you don't look at just one stat of the defense. The defense is either good or it isn't, and the OVERALL defense is what matters. Ingram played against more, period. Also, the PAC-10 is a pass-happy league.......I could have a good rush defense all by myself in the PAC-10.

Child please.

(P.S. It really doesn't matter what any of you think....Ingram will win, lol)

Posted by: roll tide | Dec 9, 2009 9:32:39 AM

You cannot tunnel-vision on rush defense alone. Many PAC-10s pass much more than they throw, simply due to their offensive design. This results in fewer rushing attempts and therefore-usually-fewer rushing yards. This gameplan has the potential to inflate the opponents rushing defense stats.

Posted by: CFFan | Dec 9, 2009 9:34:22 AM

@Winc74: Toby played against 7 of the top 50 rushing defenses, Ingram played against 4. In those games, Toby averaged 137 YPG and 5.1 YPC, and scored 14 touchdowns, while Ingram averaged 109 YPG and 4.75 YPC, and scored 4 touchdowns. And, Toby has never been shut down, unlike Ingram (16 carries and 30 yards against Auburn? WEAK!). Toby absolutely deserves the Heisman over Ingram, and the only way Ingram will pull it out is if all those East Coast voters vote for Ingram because Stanford games were past their bedtime.

Posted by: DJ | Dec 9, 2009 9:36:52 AM

DJ, YOU NEED TO RECHECK THE NCAA STATS INGRAM PLAYED AGAINST 6 OF THE TOP 37. GERHART 1 OF 37. (FINAL NCAA STATS)

HERES THE PROBLEM I HAVE WITH THE WHOLE THING. IF INGRAM PLAYED FOR NOTRE DAME, OR USC, OR OHIO STATE, AND PUT UP THE EXACT SAME NUMBERS AND THEY WERE PLAYING FOR THE NAT'L CHAMPIONSHIP, HE WOULD BE THE HANDS DOWN WINNER. HE WOULD BE EVERBODYS GOLDEN BOY. THERE IS A BIAS TOWARDS ALABAMA ACROSS THE NATION BECAUSE SO MANY PEOPLE ARE JEALOUS OF THE SUCCESS ALABAMA HAS HAD WITH THERE FOOTBALL PROGRAM. IT HAS BEEN THAT WAY SINCE AS EARLY AS 1966 WHEN THEY WENT 11-0 AND CAM IN THIRD BEHINF NOTRE DAME AND MICHIGAN ST.

Posted by: KC CRAWFORD | Dec 9, 2009 10:14:33 AM

As for the SEC padding the schedule - every team will pad the schedule some if it can. Partly for money and also to help other teams come to the front. During the 60's, Alabama always "padded" its opener. This was to help the team get money and recognition. That team was an unknown Virginia Tech. Where would Florida State and Miami be today if teams had not "padded" the schedule many years ago. USF (Univ. Southern Florida) was a pad but is now a good team.

SEC plays 7 conference games, Pac10 & Big 10 play 9 games. So the SEC teams have 2 extra outside games or 4 total. So they can put in 2 pads and 2 good teams and still play a good schedule. Pac10 and Big 10 pad their schedule with many more very bad teams than the SEC - they are just in the same conference.

The SEC will play 7-10 bowl games each year. Bowls games are usually "equals" based on ranking. Every year the SEC will win 70-80% or more of the bowl games - look it up. Once the Big 10 could play in something besides the Incest Bowl (i.e. the Rose Bowl), almost every time they play the SEC, they loose. It has become a joke on how often Ohio State is killed by an SEC team in a bowl. You will see the same things in the Pac1 conference (yes - Pac1 or Pac0 this year). This alone would be a reason the SEC is ranked so high. I repeat - the Pac10 and Big 10 have more "pads" than the SEC - they are just most of the conference.

It not the top teams in the SEC - its the middle group. They are "any given day" teams that will win if you do not approach them as tough and may win anyway. A middle SEC team would be the conference champion in the ACC, PAC10 and the Big Ten and would be fighting for the crown in the Big 12. I might add when the Big 12 was the Big 8 they were the same - tough from top to bottom. I expect them to return to that status - it cycles. But the old one team to the Rose bowl killed the Pac10 and Big 10 for decades to 1 or 2 great teams and the rest of the conference the pits. The Pac10 may be finally coming out of that but that means a big drop in the top teams before the rest of the conference comes up. Alabama of the 70's & 80's almost killed the SEC.

Posted by: Mike W | Dec 9, 2009 10:24:59 AM

Vic, doesn't matter, truth of the matter is Ingram plays against better D's than Toby does, if Ingram wins that will be what won it for him.

Posted by: nd | Dec 9, 2009 10:25:23 AM

Just a few of the facts for the PAC-10 wanna be elite:
Total yards goes to Gerhart over Ingram with a total of 1736(26TD's) to 1542(15TD's), but Gerhart had a total of 311 carries to Ingrams 249 which means that avg yards per carry aka the better running back on this stat goes to Ingram with 6.2 ypc to Gerharts 5.6 ypc. Furthur more The second best running back on each team was Alabama Richardson a fantastic freshman with 642 total yards compared to Stanfords Luck(Stanford's QB) with 354 total rushing yards. Obviously on of the two teams was able to spread the ball around a little more. You add in Gerhart's 149 recieving v Ingram's 322 you start to see who is the better football player and not just running back. To the defensive ratings of both opps is as follows: Stanford played Washington State, Wake Forest, San Jose State, Washington, UCLA, Oregon State, Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, USC, California, and Notre Dame. Their rushing defense national ranks in order are as follows: 117, 82, 119, 67, 60, 25, 22, 18, 38, 42, 27, and 90 for an avg rank of 58.9. Alabama's opp were as follows: Virginia Tech, FIU, North Texas, Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee, LSU, Mississippi State, Chattanooga, Auburn, and Florida. Their rushing defense national ranks in order are as follows: 52, 116, 104, 69, 100, 55, 46, 58, 44, 63, No score for DIAA score), 80, and 13 for an average of 66.7. So there is no real huge statistacal difference between the 67 best team and the 59 best team. So the arguement that they played better defense v the rush is true but really just a wash. The two programs strength of schedule was Alabama 20 Stanford 19 which is also a wash, but brings us to the final of my points in that with the 20 toughest schedule in the nation Ingram led his team to a record of 13-0. While, Gehart with essentially the same schedule in toughness led his team to an 8-4 record. Ingram was able to produce wins, while Gerhart was able to produce average stats.

Posted by: Beau | Dec 9, 2009 10:32:02 AM

Suh's no doubt the best player and will be an EXTREMELY wealthy young man in a few months. But no DT has been able to punch through the Heisman hole yet (Dorsey a couple years ago was probably the closest prior to this - although I think Suh's probably a more complete DT.)

Gerhardt's great and was no doubt far more VALUABLE to Stanford than Ingram was to Alabama. But after seeing Alabama's sheer volume of talent I can see now why Ingram's stats aren't as impressive as I think he actually is. Quite honestly, I'm not sure Gerhardt would even be second-string at Alabama. I know that sounds completely asinine to most of you, but their true freshman Richardson is freakishly good (even faster and stronger than Ingram.) It particularly sucks for us as Ingram's only a sophomore so we'll have to endure at least 2 more years of brutality between the two of them (assuming they both go pro after their junior years.)

Posted by: Russell | Dec 9, 2009 10:40:46 AM

Danno, Alex, other Pac-10 wanna-bes: tell me this - before this year, when was the last time someone in your conference OTHER than USC was relevant at the highest level of college football? This is not even a discussion worth having - look at the numbers in the South. You will see a number of Heisman voters in our own region that are biased against Alabama (no doubt due to the fact that we have 22 SEC championships, 12 NC's (soon to be 13), most Bowl victories of any school...do I have to go on? YET ALABAMA HAS NEVER HAD A HEISMAN WINNER?? ARE YOU SERIOUS?? Have you ever looked at the quality of football players that Alabama has had in over 100 years of football? Don't get me wrong - I like Gerhart too - but to try and say that Stanford is anywhere near Alabama and the SEC in college football is a joke. I can assure you it is much more likely that Ingram would get a 100+ yards on Stanford than Gerhart would get 100 yards on Alabama. Ingram should win it, and Gerhardt should be 2nd.

Posted by: TonyK | Dec 9, 2009 11:05:37 AM

ya toby had 200 more rushing yds. and ingram had 400 more yds receiving. also toby had more carries and less ypc. he also got to play just about eveery snaP OF EVERY GAME.Mark played sparingly in two blowout wins in the 2nd and 3rd game of the year because of the flu and obvious mismatches. He also played less than a half the week before the Auburn game. Ingram had over 175 total yards against each of the top 25 teams they played, all of which were in the top 25 in rush defense. In one other game, Tennessee, he had only 99 yds rushing on an average of nearly 6.5 ypc. Suh should win the trophy, but he has no real chance. If toby or colt wins it would be a farce

Posted by: alan arwood | Dec 9, 2009 11:12:01 AM

First of all let me say that I believe Suh should win the award. He, to me, showed the best INDIVIDUAL effort on the field this year. A D-Lineman has to beat his man by himself (and in many cases...two men) to do his job effectively. D-Linemen are probably one of the few who can claim that they do their job without much assistance from the rest of the team. Yes, great cover men may help give them extra time to get to the QB; but Suh rarely needed their assistance. I didn't see him play every game but the three games I did see....he was dominant.

Secondly let me say that Gerhart is a BEAST. I will have the memory of him absolutely planting that ND player into the dirt forever. He showed more strength on that play than any back since Bo. That guy is probably STILL feeling it.

That said....I think Ingram's body of work this year is better.

Here's why.
1. I agree with the earlier comment about yards-per-carry. Ingram averaged more yards each time he touched the ball.
2. I disagree with the comment earlier about the extra game helping Ingram pad his stats. Gerhart still had more carries. More carries equals more opportunities to pile up yardage. Ingram would have needed over three more games to have an equivalent number of carries to Gehart. He would have easily surpassed him in overall yardage (but probably not TDs) with 4 more games.
3. Ingram had to share his backfield. Gerhart carried the ball 26 times a game on average. He carried the ball 311 of Stanford's 497 total carries (that 62.5%). So 62% of the time...they gave the ball to Gerhart. Ingram, on the other hand, carried the ball only 19 times per game on average. He carried the ball only 249 times of Alabama's 550 carries. That's only 45.3%. So Ingram didn't even carry the ball HALF the time for Alabama. He simply wasn't getting the opportunities Gerhart was. But, he made better use of the time he got than Gerhart. (more ypc)
4. Ingram did not play in several games where there was opportunity to build his stats. Ingram came out after only 10 carries in the FIU game (7 minutes left in the 3rd....a period in which he only carried the ball 3 times). Ingram came out after 2 carries in the second hald North Texas game (8 carries total!). There was 12 minutes left in the 3rd at that point. So in those games he played only 71 minutes of 120 minutes. It gets better... He came out with 7 minutes left in the 2nd quarter against Chattanooga. That's only 18 minutes of play and 11 carries in that game. In fact, he only carried the ball 29 times in those three games combined! Gerhart had 29 or more carries in four different games! Ingram and Bama don't pad stats! They could have and made this whole H-----man voting a non-argument. He would have 'run' away with it.
5. Gerhart on the other hand played in only three 'run away' games. In all those he stayed in until the bitter end. In the WSU game....Gerhart was still carrying the ball in the 4th quarter and, in fact, scored to put the Cardinal up by 26 points with 5 minutes left. That is stat padding. In the ASU game; he was still carrying the ball with 6 minutes left (final series). Stanford was up 19 points. In the USC game... Harbaugh really wanted to rub Carroll's face in it. (Personally don't blame him...) In this game, Mr. Gerhart carried the ball until the end. He scored a TD with 6 minutes left and the Cardinal up by 21 points making the differential 28 points. That, my friends, is stat padding.

So...Gerhart's stats are misleading. He had more opportunities. He had a coach that wouldn't back off when he was up. (An attempt to impress voters?) And he played on a team that NEEDED him to score 26 TDs. Several games where: you score - we score - you score - we score... They needed him to keep scoring and needed his 26 TDs.

Ingram, on the other hand, was pulled from games where the result was 'in hand'. He shared a backfied (in fact only carried the ball 45% of the time). And was on a team that just didn't need alot of scoring to win.

One final thought. Ingram was a more prolific receiver (30 receptions for 322 yards and 3 TDs) to Gerhart's 10 receptions for 149 yards and no TDs. So Ingram equalled Gerhart (within a couple of yards) for Total Yardage.

Oh....sorry....one last thing. There was mention of Stanford playing better rushing defenses. This is true. The average ranking of the defenses Stanford faced (against the run) was 56th. The average ranking of the Tide's opponent's rush defense was 66th. Not a HUGE difference, but it is a difference. But I'll lob a non-stat based opinion. The PAC-10 defenses only saw one or two back like Gerhart all year (Rodgers from Ore St and LaMicheal from Ore come to mind). The SEC defenses (that make up most of Bama's opponents) saw Dixon, Tate, Cobb, Hardesty and McCluster. If the PAC-10 defenses had seen the RBs (and more importantly the OLs) that they would have had to face in the SEC EVERY week....not so sure they would have finished as high. But that is total 'homer' speculation.

Posted by: Alan | Dec 9, 2009 11:48:48 AM

"SEC does it a bit too, but all the pac 10 teams just end up beating each other up."

Hate to burst your bubble, dude, but how do you explain the fact that all four (yes that's right), all four of the top 4 teams in the Pac 10 have non-conference losses if all they do is beat up on eachother? Non of the top 6 (yes, count it, six) teams in the SEC has a non-conference loss. Yes, I understand that the SEC schedules some soft games on their schedules, but they also scheduled some hard ones. The PAC 10 may have schedules marginally harder non-conference oppnts (but don't pretend like Notre Dame is any good). The problem?? They weren't successful!!

For instance, the almighty Toby G wasn't able to pull out a victory over Wake Forrest... This is a team that went 5-7 in the ACC, and Stanford lost to them!! We can make a direct comparison there. Two mid-level SEC teams (South Carolina & Georgia) pounded the two ACC division champions!! (Clemson & GA Tech) Also, for good measure, Alabama and Florida obliterated two solid ACC teams in VA Tech and Fl State (who, o by the way, beat the "powerful" BYU team like a drum!) Also, Auburn, a mediocre SEC team beat the #2 team in the Big East (West Virginia). Furthermore, the SEC is 2-1 against the PAC 10 head to head...

Also, I encourage any SEC haters to look at skeptics over the past 4 yrs...of the 10 spots available each year in the top 10 (thereby totalling in 40 spots). According to ESPN, the SEC boasts 18 spots. Who's next? The Big 12...at 6, then the Big 10 & ACC and 5 spots each. Who is second to last in BCS conferences? That would be the almighty Pac-10 with 4 spots. And, o by the way, the 4 spots in the top 10 over the past 4 yrs all come from USC... So don't tell me that Gerhart was playing equal competition to Ingram.. Do you think it's any coincedence that the SEC has won each of the past 3 championships and has never lost a BCS nat'l championship???

Moving on, Ingram has such a higher ypc average that it makes it clear that Ingram is the more efficient, better player. If Ingram was getting the carries that Gerhart was, he'd be statistically superior. Ingram has to split carries though with 2 other backs (especially in low level games), and Gerhart gets to pad away at his stats. Furthermore, everyone is talking so much about how Gerhart has gotten better as the year's gone on. Well, yes, yes he has statistically, because every time Stanford gets to the redzone, they give the ball to Gerhart in order to pad his stats!! Do you think Nick Saban has done that? If you've payed any attention to Alabama football, then quite the opposite is obvious.

Altogether... I just don't see how you can vote Gerhart for Heisman as he is playing against inferior defenses (yes, I said it, playing against 5 star studded comp. week in and week out is harder than playing 1 star cast (USC) and the 8 other dwarfs). And most tellingly, Gerhart the Great wasn't able to help his team against a 5-7 Wake team that is bottom of a conference that is OWNED by the SEC.

SEC dominates the NCAA, Alabama Dominates the SEC, and AL has an offense that was carried on the back of Mark Ingram. I simply don't see how you could vote for any other offensive player.

Posted by: Justin | Dec 9, 2009 12:12:47 PM

Suh is so dominant. He even had five games where he got zero sacks. These were games where guys were really playing hard against him, and sometimes had a guard AND a center fighting him. And this was against top level programs like Kansas, Florida Atlantic, and even Louisiana Lafayette. Its really hard to get sacks against them, just like it is hard against teams that throw all the time like Texas Tech and Oklahoma. But Suh does it. No sacks against any of them. Suh #1.

Posted by: td | Dec 9, 2009 12:15:24 PM

"I will end by saying this, when deciding on who to vote for, vote for the one that did the most with the ball when he had it."

Well, there is the fact that the best player this year didn't touch the ball much, given that he is a D-Lineman.

Just saying.

Posted by: Jeff | Dec 9, 2009 12:16:52 PM

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