We did it! Six years in a row...
Once again, we correctly projected the winner of the H------ Trophy and the order of finish of the finalists. We projected that Tim Tebow would earn 2043 points, or 73.7% of a unanimous vote. His actual total was 1957 points, or 70.5%. He finished as the #10 biggest Trophy winner of all time - just ahead of Vinny Testaverde and just behind Doug Flutie.
We projected that Darren McFadden would pick up 1506 points, or 54.3% -- his actual total was 1703 points, or 61.4%. We projected Colt Brennan with 519 points, or 18.7% -- his actual was 632 points, or 22.8%. And we projected Chase Daniel with 368 points, or 13.2% -- and his actual total was 425 points, or 15.3%.
So, what accounts for the gap in our projections for Darren McFadden and Colt Brennan? Probably the thing we were worried about: That the traditionalist Trophy voters wouldn't vote for the sophomore - and they wouldn't tell us about their ballot. After all, our system assumes that those who talk to us vote along the same lines as those who don't. And while that's usually true, there may have been a slight gap this year.
But all in all, we're happy. Our goal each year is to project the winner, and if we can, the order of finish of the finalists. And once again, we did. Thank you to all of the vote-spotters that helped (468 comments on the "tips" thread alone!) -- and most of all, thank you to all of the official Trophy voters that shared their votes with us privately and publicly.
See you next year!
Great job Kari. I enjoy seeing the votes come in and seeing your projections. See ya next year!
Nice job. I am a Gator alum and watched this site closely over the last few weeks. Now you get to put Tim's pic up there. You guys have a great site and solid methodogy. Congrats to Tim and Go Gators!!
While your site is amazingly accurate,it is too bad the votes aren't kept secret. I guess from now on, everybody just needs to come here and not worry about watching the awards. Maybe we can petition the H...... trustees to throw out any vote that is revealed before the awards. What is the fun if there isn't a surprise once in a while. Here's looking forward to the year you miss. Now that will be fun.
Phenomenal job Karl!
And to the GR8GATOR... Congratulations Mr Tebow.
what will be very interesting is to see Tim actually have a BETTER season next year with the RB/TB help that UF just didn't have most of this year.
He is a super talent and good person on and off the field. To all the doubters, come back next year when TT and the Gators are shining up another BCS NC Ring.
It's great to be a Florida Gator!
Why isn't next year's site up yet?
Thanks for doing such a good job. Maybe one day the votes will be kept secret, but in the meantime, congratulations! You did a phenomenal job with a great original concept. Hope the advertising picks up and you actually earn some money doing this. I think your creativity and work deserves a reward. God bless.
Anyone who's interested in a secret ballot can just not visit the site or not read any columns where a writer reveals their picks. Its real simple.
I am impressed! Great job! Thanks for helping my nerves, I might have lost my marbles if not for the this site giving me some hope Tebow would win.
I couldn't get over that 70 years of stodginess, along with McFadden winning that award that went along with the Heisman winners in recent years. That was a good indicator that the old guard was still in force. Thanfully the upstarts got the upperhand!
It's too bad you were correct. As Tebow wasn't even the best player on his own team, that would go to Percy Harvin.
McFadden/Brennan had the ability to blow a game open, Tebow did not.
Now while I am a Tebow supporter, think about what ESPN did and its motivation: They now have a Heisman Trophy winner to follow for the next two years and whether he's a bust(has a terrible junior season) or a sensation(and wins again), they have a story for the next 3 years. With that said, Go Gators! Win the 2008 and 2009 National Championship!
I would agree. There were simply a number of those that did not say anything and could not vote for a Sophomore. Still, overall a job well done.
Great job, Kari! Thanks again for all the work you did.
This site really helped ease my mind about Tebow's chances. I knew it might be close, but seeing all of the public support and projections linked and posted here really gave me hope that the voters would finally put away the sophomore bias and give the right man the trophy.
They sure did. Man, am I proud of Timmy. What a great ambassador for and representative of Gator Nation. I couldn't be happier for him. He truly deserved it, and I'm so thankful we get to call this amazing guy a Gator.
Way to go, Timmy!
Corey...Way to try and Tarnish it. Where was DMAC in the FIU game? 88 total yards must have been what blew that game open? That whopping 58 yards in the Auburn game blew the doors off.
And I'm just doing that because of you. DMAC is a fine athlete. While you are just a bitter human being.
Thanks guys... you did a great job and hopefully we at FanHouse exposed your site to even more people.
The race was a little closer than expected, probably for the reason you suspect, but you were damn close with the projections... damn close.
See you next year. (Tebow for 2 more?)
Great job, Kari. This was my first year to visit your site, and I will certainly return next year. Very impressive!
Awesome job Kari. This, too, is my year on your site but will not be my last. You did a better job than CBS Sports, ESPN, or any other website out there AND you were right on the money.
Too all of my fellow GATOR NATIONites out there....we are smiling proud today. We have a wonderful athelete and role model in Timmy Tebow, for he truly embodies the characteristics of a winner both on and off the field. Thank you Tim Tebow for bringing the glory of true greatness back to the Gator Nation. We could not be more proud of you for your accomplishments. Yes, it is GREAT TO BE A FLORIDA GATOR. THANK YOU TEBOW!
Awesome work. There's no feeling quite like people asking "Who's going to win the Heisman?" and being able to answer with confidence.
When are you going to update for 2008.????????????
Did you get hired by one of the networks because you were so much more accurate than them? Will we get to see your projections for 2008?
Kari, Where are you? Lets get this Heisman party started!
Where are you?? Is Tebow back in it?? Your closest competitor is picking half of their votes from Texas and the Big 12 Conference.
Kari, Can you at least post a message saying you are not going to be doing it this year. You're just leaving everybody hanging.
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